Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Will Competing Alliances Light a Fire in the Horn of Africa?

America seems like an after-thought in the growing competition in the Horn of Africa.

Alliance

The presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia formalized and deepened an anti-Ethiopian alliance during a trilateral summit on October 10. ...

Somalia has worked to deepen diplomatic relations and security cooperation with Eritrea and Egypt since Ethiopia signed a naval port deal with Somaliland. The January 2024 deal granted Ethiopia land in Somaliland for a naval base in return for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. The Somali Federal Government has strongly rejected the deal as unlawful and a violation of its territorial integrity, as it considers Somaliland to be part of its territory. The Somali and Eritrean presidents met days after the port deal announcement to discuss ways to “strengthen ties and foster cooperation.” Somali media said the two-day visit was “impromptu,” suggesting it was in response to the deal. Somalia’s cooperation with Egypt in particular has accelerated since January 2024. Egypt and Somalia signed a bilateral defense cooperation agreement in Cairo in August. Egyptian media said Egypt deployed 1,000 soldiers to Mogadishu between August 27 and 29, while international media has reported on two arms shipments including ammunition, arms, artillery, and other weaponry since August.

These countries don't like the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal. Although Egypt is no doubt simply looking for ways to pressure Ethiopia on the GERD dam on the Nile River. Is Sudan in line to join this alliance?

Egypt will deploy more troops. And Egypt has a couple Mistral-class French amphibious warfare ships in its fleet.

I noted that regional powers are rushing to the Horn of Africa. And wonder where it might lead

I mean, does anybody expect America to settle the region down given its record the last year?

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