Will somebody's grenadiers die in the Horn of Africa?
The web of alliances around the Horn of Africa could mean a wider war at the smallest spark. Powers are filling the vacuum left in the wake of regional chaos.
Egypt has announced a new security arrangement with Somalia, which would see Egyptian soldiers stationed in Somalia and cooperating directly with their Somali counterparts.
Why is Egypt interested? Well, the Houthi attacks on shipping that uses the Suez Canal is causing Egypt financial losses. So there's some blowback from our refusal to defeat the Iranian-backed Houthi interdiction campaign.
And Egypt cultivates support to oppose Ethiopia's Nile River dam that Egypt sees as a potentially existential threat.
And recall Ethiopia's outreach to the breakaway region of Somaliland that rejects the authority of the formally recognized state of "Somalia" (it's good to have the UN seat). Somalia granted landlocked Ethiopia a navy port in exchange for money and diplomatic support.
And don't forget Turkey getting involved (quoting a story):
Turkey will deploy an unspecified number of naval forces to Somalia to help the Somali Federal Government (SFG) protect its territorial waters and build the Somali forces’ capacity to counter terrorism, piracy, smuggling, and other threats.
Turkey seeks to expand its influence within its former imperial reach.
So let's see. Ethiopia is at odds with Egypt and Somalia.
Turkey is at odds with Ethiopia, Egypt (because of Libya), and the Saudis (because Turkey desires to extend its influence to old Ottoman stomping grounds in the Gulf region).
Turkey has also had outreach to Sudan for base rights.
Iran props up the Houthi in Yemen to be able to attack Gulf Arab oil exports out of the Red Sea; and opposes the Saudis and Egypt.
The Saudis back the Yemen government against the Houthis.
The Saudis back the Egyptians.
Sudan isn't happy about Ethiopia's dam, either. Yet the degree of difficulty is increased because Sudan is splintered with internal fighting, a restive Darfur region that has been the target of government-backed genocide, and a South Sudan that successfully seceded but which hasn't seemed to lessen tensions.
Somalis wants Somaliland and Puntland back; wants jihadis suppressed; disputes its border with Ethiopia; and has strained relationships with Kenya over the problems caused by chaos and jihadis in Somalia. Lord knows what the status of Jubaland is.
Jihadis in Somalia hate everyone.
Eritrea is at odds with Ethiopia.
Djibouti is unhappy with the Ethiopians for shifting port usage (with the fees that add up) to Somaliland.
Ethiopia has secessionist problems--Eritrea successfully seceded after a long war.
Russia sails around and spreads its usual joy trying to foment chaos that distracts and harms America. See its backing of Iran.
And what is the UAE doing in the Gulf of Aden? The UAE is an ally and rival of the Saudis.
America flails in the region. But its tough opposing jihadis in Somalia and trying to keep the area calm. So who to side with when the chips are down? Maybe if we didn't flail, locals wouldn't arm up and seek potential allies.
So:
Side A Side B
Ethiopia Egypt
Iran Somalia
Eritrea
Djibouti
Sudan
Turkey Turkey
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
UAE UAE
And oh yeah, America, France, and China have military facilities in Djibouti.
We'll see if some damned foolish thing in the Horn of Africa sparks a regional war, eh? Who knows who else is pulled in.
Have a super sparkly day.
PRE-PUBLICATION UPDATE: I found this ISW assessment after writing and scheduling this post:
External powers are taking advantage of conflicts that have emerged in the Horn of Africa to advance their economic, military, and political objectives in the Horn of Africa and the greater Red Sea area at the expense of the interests of the local populations and the United States.
Can't argue with that.
As an additional aside, I was intending to put this in Substack until I noticed I'd already written a post there on this region. So decided to keep this longer look here. A peril of posting on two sites. But perhaps sharing how the sausage gets made isn't that interesting.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
