Fighting in Ukraine won't stop as the weather gets worse. But it will make it more difficult to exploit any battlefield victory on the front. Is there a sense of urgency at the Kursk salient to exploit the coming bad weather by locking in success while movement is easier?
That seems about right:
Fall and winter weather conditions will likely complicate Russian and Ukrainian battlefield activity but are very unlikely to completely stall activity along the frontline.
The fall will be worse for movement because of the mud. In the winter the ground will solidify to allow cross-country vehicle movement, but the cold will add problems.
Is Russia's apparent counter-offensive at the Kursk salient an effort to drive the Ukrainian out of Russia before the weather turns sour?
Apparent Russian "advances" into areas maps commonly shown to be controlled by Ukraine may simply be nominally controlled, as in Ukraine's units may have been the last to move through it.
And there are counter-rumors that Ukraine is pouncing on the counter-attacking Russians near the border west of the map area showing the salient; even as the Ukrainians keep trying to expand the salient.
The situation remains unclear.
UPDATE (Monday) TDI on the Pokrovsk offensive.
UPDATE (Thursday): Ukraine's strategic air campaign continues with a successful drone strike:
Suspilne's sources stated the facility stores Iskander missiles, Tochka-U ballistic missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery ammunition and that there were significant secondary detonations following the initial Ukrainian drone strike.
I don't expect it to be decisive. But it helps.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
