It just seems like we're waiting for something significant to happen in the war.
What will happen in Ukraine's Kursk salient created from their August 6th incursion? Will Russia's drive at their own slowly expanding Avdiivka salient culminate short of Ukrainian-held Pokrovsk? Will Ukraine decisively counter-attack there?
Ukraine's commander defends the Kursk incursion:
The commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Thursday that the Kursk offensive has been effective and the “strategy is working” to block Russian forces from taking more territory in eastern Ukraine.
Syrskyi told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that the Kursk operation “reduced the threat of an enemy offensive” and prevented a Russian attack, saying Moscow had amassed tens of thousands of troops in the region, including experienced airborne ones.
I did read that Russia was gathering forces to threaten Ukraine's Sumy province. I speculated that one reason for the incursion could be a spoiling attack to delay a Russian offensive. It may have done that. Yet until Russia does something on the Kursk front, Ukraine is under no pressure to finish the raid and retreat to prepared defensive positions. It seems unlikely this front will be decisive militarily despite rival claims of shaking the foundation of the Russian state or the doomed folly of Ukraine's salient.
Can either side achieve a significant result in their air wars to affect the land fight? Does it matter that Russia can't use the western Black Sea? Can Ukraine drop the Kerch Strait bridge? And will it matter so late in the war as Russia builds land lines of supply across the northern shore of the Sea of Azov? Can Russia sustain its high losses in men and materiel?
Heck, can anything happen on the Kherson front?
Something will end the stalemate.
UPDATE (Monday): Strategypage describes the railroad, communications, and natural gas problems Ukraine has caused Russia in the Kursk salient.
I guess I don't understand why Ukraine needs to control any pumping station inside Russia when it controls the pipelines going through Ukraine. And the rail problem is bizarre. You'd think Russia could route around the disruption. But their shortages prevent that fully.
UPFATE (Thursday): Russia counter-attacked the Kursk salient:
The size, scale, and potential prospects of the September 11 Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast are unclear and the situation remains fluid as of this report. It is premature to draw conclusions about Russia’s new counterattacks and ISW will continue following the situation.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
