Ethiopia returns to the sea decades after it lost control of Eritrea. What will Ethiopia do with that access?
Somalia has described an agreement that landlocked Ethiopia made with the self-declared republic of Somaliland over sea access as an act of "aggression".
Somaliland seceded from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but is not recognised internationally.
It said that Ethiopia agreed to recognise its independence at some point in the future in exchange for military access to the coast.
I mentioned Ethiopia's desire:
Abiy has more territorial ambitions: "Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed on October 13, 2023, that his landlocked country has a right to demand maritime access to a Red Sea port from its neighbors in the Horn of Africa — first through diplomatic means, he said, or by force if necessary."I was skeptical that force would be effective. Yet Ethiopia did say it wanted diplomacy to achieve it. Somaliland was the diplomatic partner.
Did not see this path coming. Should have. Somalia is not a country but a territory--so I have no problem with a deal between two governments that can control and run their territories. People spend so much time complaining about Africa's borders drawn by colonialists. But when Africans draw borders reflecting reality they get condemned. Here's the source of the map and a quick brief on Somaliland.
Somaliland gets paid (by getting a stake in Ethiopia's airline--the largest in Africa--in the 50-year agreement) and backing for independence from Somalia and, I assume as a byproduct, for favorably settling territorial disputes with fellow secessionist region, Puntland. Still, the details of the deal aren't public.
ISW addressed the deal, and brought up angles that didn't occur to me:
The port deal has severely strained Somali-Ethiopian relations and increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment in southern Somalia, which will likely weaken regional counterterrorism cooperation and energize al Shabaab. Ethiopia’s African Red Sea neighbors in Djibouti, Egypt, and Eritrea will likely view an Ethiopian base as a threat, while the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) strong ties with the Ethiopian government will strengthen the Emiratis’ position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Also, "Ethiopia also pays at least $1 billion in port fees annually to Djibouti." Ethiopia thought it was too expensive and Djibouti wouldn't lower its prices. Will Ethiopia just start the process over with Somaliland eventually raising prices? Or will Ethiopia eventually try to draw Somaliland into Ethiopia's orbit? Perhaps even annexing it?
Still, some tensions may be the result of false claims that Ethiopia will control--rather than lease--port facilities. Unless the Houthis have given the world enough to think about without getting worked up about this situation. Maybe Somaliland can leverage a role in blocking the Houthi to maneuver through the opposition to independence:
Perhaps it is now Somaliland’s moment. The self-governing region consisting of the northern third of Somalia is a perfect, elegant solution. Briefly independent in 1960, the U.S. recognized it. Its subsequent marriage to Somalia failed, but it divorced before Somalia could drag it into state failure.
Lastly, about that navy Ethiopia wants. Will Ethiopia be a partner to keep the Red Sea and Horn of Africa sea lines of communication open--and oppose Iran? Or will Ethiopia focus on Egypt as a rival in the GERD Nile River dam dispute?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
