Don't hear from Russia what we want to hear.
The war is in fact currently stalemated on land by a territorial control metric:
Since the failure of offensives in 2023 by both Ukraine and Russia, a narrative is coalescing that the war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate. The perception of an indefinite but static conflict is causing a sense of fatigue in the capitals of Ukraine’s partners: if neither side is likely to make substantial progress, the status quo appears stable, demanding little urgent policy attention.
But that doesn't mean the land stalemate is permanent. As that author then writes:
This perception of stalemate, however, is deeply flawed. Both Moscow and Kyiv are in a race to rebuild offensive combat power. In a conflict of this scale, that process will take time. While the first half of 2024 may bring few changes in control of Ukrainian territory, the materiel, personnel training, and casualties that each side accrues in the next few months will determine the long-term trajectory of the conflict.
So stalemate at the moment by one metric is no reason to reduce support for Ukraine in order to compel it to accept Russia's current conquests--even if that bitter pill of future vulnerability is sweetened with military aid, reconstruction funds, and NATO and/or EU membership.
Early on I speculated that Ukraine might replicate Finland's successful defense that deterred a future Russian invasion. But trying to engineer that outcome--trading territory for Russian respect for autonomy as Finland did in 1940--is hardly Plan A material for Ukraine.
One, Stalin full intended to conquer all of Finland. He expected a lightning conquest. Finland escaped renewed invasion because Russia within a year and a half had to fight Nazi Germany, enduring 30 million dead. And then immediately launched a struggle against the American-led global alliance network.
Pray tell, what keeps Putin too busy to have another shot at completing the job in Ukraine that Stalin never got in Finland?
Right now my biggest fear is that a skittish West will rescue Putin from looming disaster:
Contrary to much conventional wisdom, in Russia and the West, time is not on Putin’s side. He’s not getting any younger, and his regime is not getting any stronger. The West should therefore refrain from negotiating with Putin until his country and regime weaken beyond easy repair.
So, don’t be taken in by his forced bravado. The tune he’s singing is his swan song. As to when Putin Russia will meet its end, it may be sooner than you think. Indeed, consider holding your breath.
I won't rely on this kind of speckled swan rescue. But its chances are lower if the West throws Putin a nuanced, "realist" life line as his ground forces feed the meat grinder.
Remain calm. The war in Gaza won't distract the West for much longer. And so far Putin has not retreated from his maximalist goal of destroying Ukraine.
Let's try helping Ukraine defeat Russia on the battlefield. Maybe swans thrive in that environment.
UPDATE (Monday) Ukraine says it shot down a Russian AWACS plane and damaged another command post plane airborne communications plane--kind of like a flying satellite:
The aircraft were attacked over the Sea of Azov on Sunday night, the RBC-Ukraine news agency cited a source in the armed forces as saying.
What on Earth was used to shoot them down? Does Ukraine have planes with really long-range air-to-air missiles available? Did they manage to move a SAM with extra-long range to the edge of the frontline in the south? Very puzzling. [NOTE: I later heard a reliable source on the second plane's function.]
UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine may have lured those Russian planes to the northern Sea of Azov by knocking out a number of radars on Crimea while putting S-300 or Patriot missiles close enough to strike when the Russians moved the planes north to compensate for loss of ground-based coverage. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE (Thursday): Did Western failure to aid Ukraine enough doom the 2023 counteroffensive? It was a factor. But don't over rely on that explanation:
When that counteroffensive did come, its failure reflected deep weaknesses of the Ukrainian army — including its inability to carry out complex, multistage operations — as much as any shortfall of aid.
I found the insufficient support explanation persuasive until I read Ukrainian brigades couldn't effectively command and control more than two companies in an assault. That's no way to break through a defensive line. How there were elevated expectations given that weakness is mind bobbling.
Given that it was unwise to wait so long until the new brigades were equipped and supposedly trained, I think Ukraine could have started counter-attacks much earlier at that level before Russian fortifications were so formidable.
UPDATE (Thursday) As we anticipate a Russian offensive:
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported on January 17 that Russia does not have enough reserves to conduct large-scale offensive operations in several directions at the same time.
Also, Russia does not want peace:
Medvedev’s January 17 statement is one of many recent signals from senior Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, that Putin and the Kremlin have no interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine and that Putin’s maximalist war aims in Ukraine remain unchanged.
UPDATE (Friday): Russia's strategy to outlast Western support for Ukraine could soon founder on three lines of effort: A large EU economic support package, an American military assistance package, and a Western effort to confiscate Russian assets in the West to direct to Ukraine. They have to succeed to foil Russia's hope. But progress is being made.
UPDATE (Sunday): Ukraine's deep battle to starve the Russian military machine continues:
Russian energy company Novatek said on Sunday it had been forced to suspend some operations at a huge Baltic Sea fuel export terminal due to a fire started by what Ukrainian media said was a drone attack.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
