Keeping Europe from being a launching platform to attack America, using the great military potential of its population, industry, and technology, has been an enduring if unappreciated American strategic objective. Some would claim to be deep thinkers for throwing that all away. Why? When so often people argue for walking away from recently won wars because "we don't win wars like we did in World War II", I find it bizarre that people want us to walk away from what we began to achieve in World War II.
Deliberately encouraging NATO to go dormant by pushing Europeans to defend the continent while America in effect departs Europe? This has about as much of a basis in reality as our supposed imminent Green energy nirvana.
The author offers three general reasons for America telling Europeans they must provide conventional air-land power to defend Europe from Russia. Arguing America should be in a supporting role, only.
Here's one:
Assumption one dictates that NATO is designed not just to defend Europe, but to neuter European great powers and deter any attempt of having a continental hegemon opposed to the United States.
He says the two objectives are incompatible with American democracy because it is an empire. That's nonsense. Because it isn't an empire. It's a recognition that when we left Europe after intervening to prevent a continental hegemon in World War I, we had a second world war in Europe. That's reason enough to have a robust presence in Europe.
And remember, preventing a European hegemon from arising--and I see that as the EU, which American withdrawal would strengthen--includes preventing Russia from again becoming a threat to control or dominate Europe.
He sees our objective of keeping Europe friendly. But then forgets that moment of clarity as he drives on. So close to making a bit of sense!
Two:
In a world where there is no American military power acting as a glue to keep Europe united by force, the European Union will implode into several pieces, as older powers and territorial interests return to form.
Well, Britain already left the EU. And other parts of Europe are chafing in the velvet chains. Our current military presence clearly isn't the glue to support the EU. In what alternate world would America send troops to put down future exits from the EU? Good grief. A dormant NATO is what the proto-imperial European Union is pushing for in order to strengthen their power!
Three:
The structural forces that allowed U.S. hegemony are now gone. America is hollowed out, with a $33 trillion debt: arguably the biggest threat in front of the United States. Put simply, America is on the verge of economic collapse, and a bloated government and defense budget are but one cause of it.
No. The problem is non-defense spending. You have to be living in a fantasy world to think a further retreat from Europe means America will get its economic house in order. FFS. And remember that defense spending is a smaller share of the American economy as economic growth has outpaced the burden of defense since World War II.
Further, if America can't pay for defense, how on Earth are we going to shift the burden to Europeans with similar burdens? There won't be enough of a shift to prevent either Russia or the EU from taking control to our detriment. As for American nukes, air power, and naval forces doing the job alone? We long ago found out that nukes alone are not enough as we once thought in the 1950s. Also, there's a little problem with that reliance on the assumption that Europeans will arm up in response:
There was always a thread of European worry [during the cold War] that if they spent too much on defense that they'd be a conventional battlefield for a third time in the 20th century. So the Europeans skimped on defense to make it more likely that America would have to escalate to strategic nukes to prevent the Soviets from taking Western Europe. The Europeans hoped that would deter war between America and the USSR.
Air power supremacy is also a long-discredited Silver Bullet defense theory. And our Navy presence in European waters is a faint shadow of its Cold War levels, incapable of doing more than showing the flag and extending a thin missile defense shield to select locations.
And to remind you, we have only two Army brigades stationed in Europe. Another brigade is there now because of rotations through Europe in response to Russia's threats to European security since invading Ukraine.
And really, we're seeing even the long-annoying Germany deciding to arm up since Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale. I'd say mission accomplished on shifting responsibility to Europeans. Remember, American troop strength in Europe is already greatly diminished. We are already in a supporting role.
Abandoning NATO is insane and throws away more than a century of effort to protect America. We must not count on Europeans to be our first line of defense in the Atlantic. I don't think Europeans are ready to man the walls of Western civilization alone. And a dormant NATO sounds like a proto-imperial EU wet dream.
And seriously, without American influence to keep Europeans focused on defending themselves from Russia, who wants to risk Europeans with military power unrestrained by a vibrant NATO that America dominates? FFS. Remember when Europeans had full responsibility for their defenses? Wasn't 1939 fun? And 1914? That's one reason we've actually encouraged Europeans to be reliant on America.
I say (in Military Review starting on page 15) that a strong American military presence secures Europe from Russia. And from themselves, as I noted about our role in spreading democracy in Europe:
Europe is fully part of the free West because America helped make Europe fully part of the free West. The EU is a force working against that positive American influence to go back to the Europe of autocracies and strongmen whose legitimacy came from blood and soil rather than individual liberty.
It has long been in America's interest to prevent a hostile power from taking Europe and mobilizing its scientific, military, economic, and demographic potential to be used against America. We stopped the Kaiser, we stopped Hitler, and we stopped the USSR.
The EU will so obviously be a threat given time that I am astounded that any American--or any European who values freedom and liberty--can support the EU.
Europe is an economy-of-force front. But we still need to stay in Europe with our shrunken commitment to keep NATO strong. That's the way to get Europe to defend itself more effectively without tempting Russia to attack or dangerous internal European blowback that will only increase our need to spend much more on our military rather than focus on China.
By all means, be willing to modernize NATO for the current era. But you have to admit that Russia has given NATO renewed meaning for its original role when Soviet armies were 100 miles from the Rhine River--and still claiming they needed a larger buffer zone.
UPDATE: A reminder that once the USSR fell, a strain of conservatism stopped thinking Russia is an evil empire. The other side of the coin is bizarre, too. But I say welcome to the party, even if it is a late and brittle conversion given that far left elements still love Russia--or anyone that opposes America:
Just because Democrats are suddenly and oddly determined to defeat Russia despite their late-Cold War "moral equivalence" nonsense doesn't make me oppose defeating Russia. Instead I say to the Democrats, "Welcome to the party, pal." But how converted are they?
UPDATE: To be clear, I'm not pointing out two world wars in Europe as evidence of unique European war-making impulses. That's a human impulse. But Europe has had a lot of concentrated power among numerous bordering states. And again, Europe is extremely important to American security.
UPDATE: The Russians make it clear that the West should support Ukraine until Russia is defeated:
Putin and Kremlin officials have increasingly stressed in recent weeks that Russia has no interest in negotiating with Ukraine in good faith, that Russia’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine remain the same, and that Putin continues to pursue his overarching objective to weaken and dismantle NATO.The long struggle to keep Europe from being controlled by a hostile power did not begin when the Cold War started. And it did not end when the West won the Cold War.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
