Despite claims that America doesn't need to think about the Middle East because we don't rely on energy imports from the region, America does rely on trade and defense relations with the rest of the world which does rely on the region's energy. Will America fight Iran in the war it wages on us?
The vulnerable points of world trade:
Half of these eight global chokepoints are dispersed widely. Only one each can be found in Europe (the Strait of Gibraltar), in Africa (the Cape of Good Hope), in East Asia (the Straits of Malacca), and in the Americas (the Panama Canal). Unfortunately, the other half of these critical chokepoints are all concentrated in a relatively small region where southwestern Asia meets Europe and Africa: the Bosporus Strait, the Suez Canal, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and the Strait of Hormuz. This area also happens to be the most important single source of the energy required to sustain global economic growth. Those two facts explain why US presidents keep rediscovering the need to focus disproportionately on the Middle East, despite their often-heartfelt desires to do otherwise.
Today, the greatest threat to these chokepoints is Iran and its proxies. The regime in Tehran has long threatened to shut down Hormuz and repeatedly attacked shipping in the area. Most recently, it even threatened to shut down Gibraltar. The Houthis, Iran’s partner and proxy in Yemen, had repeatedly attacked ships transiting the Bab. The Biden administration recognized the threat, laid the diplomatic predicate, assembled the multilateral coalition, deployed the assets, issued clear warnings, and then took action. This is what professional policymaking looks like. One hopes that the right lessons will be learned in both Sanaa and Tehran.
But the United States also needs to learn its own lessons. Across multiple administrations and congressional terms, Washington has long underestimated the inherent threat posed by the Houthis, and thus allowed the conditions to develop that allowed the Houthis to prosper. Thursday’s action should mark the end of those practices.
The obvious objective is the Strait of Hormuz. But the Red Sea from the Suez Canal to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is the other major objective as Arab states worked to reduce reliance on Hormuz and as Iran followed the Gulf states to the Red Sea.
And after finally getting an outpost inside Yemen astride that trade route, by unleashing the Houthi with the anti-ship weapons Iran gave the Houthis--Iran is threatening all trade--not just the oil trade. The threat is real (tip to Instapundit):
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said nations with influence in Iran need to take a stronger stand to demonstrate the “entire world rejects wholesale the idea that a group like the Houthis can basically hijack the world as they are doing.”
This isn't the first time Iran has unleashed the Houthi--then with naval mines. I worry Iran will directly attack the Suez Canal. Either by lodging a ship nearly sideways in the canal or by detonating a ship there to really do damage to its Arab enemies, including Egypt.
As I've noted, the mullah regime in Iran is a Gordian Knot tying up efforts to alleviate a lot of our foreign policy problems. Sadly, Democrats bizarrely love mullah-run Iran (and their little pitbulls like the Houthi). Yet somehow Iran continues to sow mayhem to drive America from the region.
Iran--not Israel--is the main problem in the region.
And what signals do calibrated--possibly even nuanced--strikes on the Houthi send when they are Islamist fanatics on a mission from God? Some enemies just need to be killed rather than courted.
And what message do we send to Iran when Iran is more than happy to fight its enemies to the last dead Arab? As Iran does inside Iraq and in our forward shield inside eastern Syria to keep the terrorist rat lines from Syria that pumped suicide bombers into Iraq closed.
The Biden administration announced on [last] Wednesday it has decided to reclassify the Houthis in Yemen as a “specially designated global terrorist."
Although even now the administration used a diluted--dare I say nuanced--form of the designation. I guess what the Houthi do isn't terror-terror. How do we hope to deter the Houthi when we've officially designated them as ... what? ... naughty?
We need a lot less Smart Diplomacy®-engineered nuanced soft power and a lot more smart bombs. We successfully fought Iran in a tanker war before. What has America learned?
UPDATE: Iran's proxy campaign is working (tip to Instapundit):
Global shipping rates are skyrocketing as the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen step up their attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea[.]
Biden needs to either surrender to Iran's demands or crush Houthi anti-ship capabilities. Eventually, Iran must be stopped.
UPDATE: We struck again, including against non-Houthi Iranian proxies:
The U.S. military struck three facilities in Iraq and two anti-ship missiles in Yemen operated by Iranian-backed militias that have attacked U.S. personnel and ships in the region as the United States tries to keep the Israel-Hamas war from spilling over into a wider conflict.
But in regard to the Houthi, this DOD description of the foundation of our anti-Houthi campaign is wrong:
This action aims to deter further regional maritime attacks and diminish Houthi capabilities.
Deterring Iran's Houthi must not be the objective. Diminishing Houthi anti-ship capabilities shouldn't be the objective. We should not be in a preemptive or reactive mode, tied to determining an "imminent" threat or responding to an actual Houthi attack. That grants the initiative to the Houthi.
The objective should be a relentless campaign to destroy Houthi anti-ship capabilities. And then bounce the rubble in a double tap to kill anybody trying to rebuild the capacity.
UPDATE: Not deterred:
Houthi militants fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles Wednesday at a U.S.-owned cargo ship in the Red Sea, defying a U.S.-led military effort to prevent attacks on commercial shipping.
We shot down two and one missed. On its own or not is not reported.
UPDATE: Let's not go overboard lauding the Houthi for deploying , firing, and evading. Any force under threat of enemy detection and attack adopts "shoot and scoot."
NYT calls the Houthi "scrappy" and "ragtag" as if it's a movie review of Stand and Deliver and not a story about Iran-backed terrorists who attack civilian ships, our warships, and support Hamas for the right to recover and slaughter and rape even more Jews.
UPDATE: More information on the previously noted Houthi ballistic missile attack:
Houthi fighters fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting two US-flagged ships transporting US military supplies through the Gulf of Aden on January 24.Is Houthi interdiction of our supplies more successful than our interdiction of theirs?
UPDATE: Defending a ship from missiles. At that point we've already failed to avoid detection or destroy the incoming missiles before they are launched.
UPDATE (via Instapundit): Exactly:
For a quintessential example of the Biden administration’s farcical foreign policy, look no further than its duplicitous re-designation of Yemen’s Houthis as a terrorist group — an election-year ruse to create the appearance of combating the Iranian proxy while preserving the Iran-empowering status quo.
Why would the Iranians rein in their Houthi attack dogs when they know Biden loooves them?
UPDATE: China isn't relying on bribery:
Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing[.]
We'll see if money talks and jihad walks.
The US destroyed a Houthi anti-ship missile in Yemen, hours after an attack that left a fire raging on a British-linked oil tanker. ...
It presented an “imminent threat” to merchant vessels and American navy ships, US central command said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter, adding that it had acted “in self-defence”.
Hammer them until we bounce the rubble. Don't let them decide whether to attack or not. Make them incapable of attacking--preferably because they're dead.
UPDATE: WTF happened to the Royal Navy?
Britain’s warships cannot attack Houthi targets on land because they lack the firepower, in a situation described by former defence chiefs as a “scandal”.
Seriously? Are they now basically just ASW and air defense vessels to escort a carrier?
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
