Should Europe carry more of the defense burden to free American resources for the rest of the world? Yes. But it is complicated.
The critical task for Germany and its European neighbors, however, is not only to spend more but to spend that additional money in ways that address the ongoing shifts in international security. A higher level of spending by Europe alone does not guarantee that America’s most critically stretched capabilities will in the future be available for another theater.The author especially wants Europe to build scarce but vitally important American military assets that must swing between Asia and Europe--and the rest of the world in a sudden crisis.
I personally think Europe should focus more on sustaining the military power it has with ammunition, trained troops, and replacement equipment. That is unaddressed in the essay. "Artillery" and "ammunition" cannot be found in the essay.
Leading from behind sounds nice. But is it?
When we want allies who can fight without us taking the lead--wait for it--we get allies who can fight without us in the lead.
So they might fight in Vietnam. Or invade Egypt
European military capability is complicated, no?
They key is how European rearmament is done. Is European rearmament through the European Union or NATO? The former is not good for America--or for Europeans who value freedom, for that matter.
And European rearmament is complicated for Europeans, too. If Europe can robustly fight, Europeans have worried that America is relieved of the problem of sharing the risk of destruction because Europe will be be sole battlefield, with America secure across the Atlantic (well, mostly secure). That's where nukes come in.
There is an extended nuclear deterrence dilemma:
Extended nuclear deterrence, which we've promised to keep many allies from going nuclear over the last 60 years, will weaken once we are vulnerable to nuts with nukes. Even Britain and France weren't fully convinced we'd trade New York City for London or Paris. The Germans sure weren't sure about our willingness to trade New York City for Bonn. Only a Nazi legacy kept them from going nuclear, I imagine. That and our longer range nukes placed in western Europe later in the Cold War probably reassured many Europeans that Russia would not refrain from hitting America if American nukes in Europe hit Soviet targets within the USSR.
Further, Europeans were worried "tactical" battlefield nukes would let America and the USSR wage nuclear war in European territory and avoid "strategic" exchanges on each's homelands. So risking conventional defeat so America would have to threaten strategic nuclear use was a European survival strategy. As were British and French nukes that could be aimed at Russia to deny Moscow the ability to avoid nuclear war with America. Would Russia really absorb the hits and not strike America even if America was not involved?
Europeans count on the fact that for America, Europe as an objective to defend our east coast.
UPDATE: He was formerly opposed to NATO nukes:
In an interview with the German weekly Die Zeit in December 2023, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer argued in favour of European nuclear deterrent.
And no, French nukes don't count.
But it's cool for the EU, I guess. The drive for European nukes is decorated with fashionable Trump tail fins by the Europeans. But extended deterrence has long been a complicated problem for American allies.
UPDATE: And mind you, I'm not condemning Europeans for this 20th century history as if they are unique historically or globally. But it is important to America to have a prosperous and peaceful--one not controlled by an enemy--Europe. Hoping it will just turn out that way on its own is foolish.
*The excessive focus on Trump is silly. Trump strengthened NATO. And the Europeans continued business as usual when Biden won for a post-Trump justification for European "strategic autonomy." But the issue of what "Europe" does with more military authority is important, regardless.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
