I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
Talk of what territory Trump might pressure Ukraine to cede is a spring 2023 discussion. After Ukraine's failed 2023 counteroffensive, the question is how much will Ukrainians sacrifice to liberate their territory. That's Ukraine's obstacle. Its leaders may in time welcome "pressure" to seek security off the battlefield.
Not silver bullets: "Further improvements to Ukraine's drone capabilities and continually improving integration of Ukrainian drones with ground operations remain critical to Ukraine's ability to defend against advancing Russian forces and liberate occupied territory in future counteroffensive operations."
Build auxiliary cruisers using civilian container ships and military systems mounted in standard shipping containers? Endorsed!
Europe crushed Nazism only to import new Jew haters: "Antisemitic prejudice still endures in Eastern Europe, but the region has not seen the kind of violence against Jews visible today in Amsterdam, Paris, Berlin and other Western European cities. ... " Eastern Europe is not suicidal. Also, the hate is not new.
Thanks, Turkey: "Israeli media reported on November 17 that Hamas’ political leadership has relocated from Qatar to Turkey. " Turkey is a NATO "ally." We have an Erdogan problem. Unless his rule has infected the rest of government. Although to be fair, Turkey's society was already moving that way.
Train the way you need to fight: "The U.S., Australia and Japan agreed to broaden a series of drills and trainings Sunday, the next step in preparing their militaries to work together in crisis."
Big news? "The executive arm of the European Union approved €300 million (US$317 million) in funding for five joint defense-procurement projects by member states, the first time the bloc uses its budget to finance common defense buying." Is the EU goal the power to buy or actual defense purchases?
Evil, petty, and annoying: "Relations between the neighbors have sunk to the lowest level in years. Now, Pyongyang is blaring eerie sounds across the border that villagers say is making their lives hell.
Hanging together to avoid hanging separately: "Under AUKUS Pillar II, the three nations have entered the Hypersonic Flight Test and Experimentation (HyFliTE) Project Arrangement (PA) to use each other’s testing facilities and share technical information to develop, test, and evaluate hypersonic systems."
In the Philippines, Secretary of Defense Austin and his hosts "highlighted the need for deeper coordination to address challenges in the South China Sea, where lawful operations by the Philippines have encountered repeated harassment by the People’s Republic of China."
Huh: "Currently only about 40 percent of Iranians consider themselves Moslems and most adhere to other faiths, including the ancient Iranian Zoroastrianism. Iranians don’t care what their leaders, a religious dictatorship, think and the Iranian leaders quietly go along with this subterfuge." Is Islam eroding in Iran?
"The Navy’s failure to re-establish control of the critical Bab el-Mandeb choke point threatens about 12 percent
of the world’s oil shipments. Keeping sea lanes open to commerce has
been one of the Navy’s core missions since the founding of the Republic." Indeed. We choose not to succeed. Admirals must do better.
The CMV-22B Osprey variant is "tailored to meet certain high-demand Navy missions such as the Carrier On-Board Delivery mission and long-range force and equipment transport. The Navy Osprey is taking over the Carrier on-Board Delivery mission previously performed by the C-2 Greyhound."
The process: "The U.S. military services should routinely train their officers about the intricacies of their officer evaluation systems and provide detailed feedback after each evaluation cycle, the Government Accountability Office concluded in a new report." Is the least of the system's problems.
Is this really unlikely? "North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine if the alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow continues to deepen, according to people familiar with assessments made by some [G20] nations." Rotated--assuming survivors. And it's is an old proposal.
Hmmm: "Russia may be preparing for yet another pivot—this time away from Iran." Iran is too useful to Russia for weapons and harassment of American forces and interests in the Middle East. Perhaps it is better to say Russia may be ready to pretend to pivot away from Iran--for a very real price from the West.
When you start to lift limits on Ukraine's use of American surface-to-surface missiles, lift the limits on Ukraine's use of American surface-to-surface missiles. The partial way it was done just gives America the blame without the effectiveness of actually lifting the limits.
These captured documents provide details, but we already knew Iran helped Hamas with capabilities used to murder Israelis. There is no information pointing to Hamas attacking Israel on October 7, 2023, on direct orders from Iran, which we think we know.
With American permission, Ukraine can use ATACMS against targets inside some parts of Russia. So "lawmakers aligned with President Vladimir Putin in Russia said Monday that the move was unacceptable and warned it could lead to a third world war." No, the big step was Russia bringing war back to Europe.
Until Russia can rebuild its army, this general has better skill sets for covert Russian threats: "A career special operations veteran who was featured in a hazy green, night vision photo as the last American soldier to leave Afghanistan has been nominated to pin a fourth star and lead the U.S. Army in Europe."
Let's hope this is true here and in Europe: "Given the damage being done to Europe’s industrial base, the political tide is unsurprisingly turning against the greens." We can't repair our defense industry base without industry. But the climate-industrial complex will resist.
So what's really going on? " An unspecified Turkish diplomat also rejected claims that Hamas’ political leadership has relocated from Qatar to Turkey."
Russia is suspected: "Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said Tuesday that NATO and the European Union must raise their game to protect themselves from hybrid threats and defend undersea cables from attack." But a Chinese ship could be the culprit.
China's aggression pushes us together: "The U.S. and the Philippines finished an agreement on how to share classified information, firming the foundation for their militaries to operate together."
This seems prudent: "After years of building bespoke networks to connect with individual allied and partner militaries, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command is preparing to bring nearly two dozen countries into a single network in 2025."
America's quest to rapidly defeat China over Taiwan neglect the possibility--perhaps likelihood--that the war will drag on. Does the short-term focus harm preparations to win a long war? Sadly, simulations that have a time limit reinforce the short-war bias.
Is it just RUMORINT that Russia's railroad system seems to be breaking down? Or maybe just anecdotes that don't reflect the entire system? Big, if true, as the expression goes. Tip to Instapundit.
Russian covert sabotage? "Damage to communication cables between new NATO members Finland and Sweden and their alliance partners Germany and Lithuania was likely sabotage, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday."
Oh? "German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said that Chancellor Olaf Scholz's conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week is further evidence that the Russian leader is uninterested in negotiations with Ukraine." Talks are probably futile. But it may just be Putin's opening bid.
The idea that the Biden administration is starting World War III by letting Ukraine launch a small number of ATACMS into limited areas of Russia is grotesque. Any risk is solely caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the first place. Remember Russia's history of nuclear bluffs. This is just more to bolster fear.
The war in the shadows: "The Ukrainian security service (SSU) recently detected several Russian agents operating in Kherson, which is near the Black Sea northwest of Crimea. Three Russian spies were arrested." Plus a broader survey of Russian espionage.
Clearly a point defense system small enough to be mounted on a Stryker: "The U.S. Army has developed and deployed four Locust Laser Weapon Systems at undisclosed locations overseas. ... The laser has a range of about 800 meters and is used against large drones in places like Syria and now Ukraine."
So it's to be nuclear sabre rattling, Putin? "A B-52 Stratofortress
bomber dropped weapons on a range in Lithuania on Nov. 15 in an unusual
live fire display, a U.S. defense official told Air & Space Forces
Magazine." General Grant smiles. Seriously, don't let the Wookie win.
The short war temptation. Nations can be seduced by the promise. But reality is usually not the happy ending imagined.
A useful essay about restoring the Navy with applications across the Pentagon.
Back to the "proxy war" issue. I don't like the term. It implies amoral exploitation of another country to fight an enemy for us. See Ukraine. But "proxy war" is often helping an ally or enemy of our enemy resist the common foe. Was pre-Pearl Harbor U.S. help to Britain and China a bad proxy war against the Axis?
Via Instapundit, Iran's mullah regime is almost unbelievably evil. I'm not saying we need to organize a revolution.
But FFS at least don't be blinded by loving the mullah regime!
Hmmm: "Western countries have been imposing sanctions on Russia since the war
in Georgia in 2008. They have always been too little, too late, and
poorly enforced." Well, it isn't a blockade. And after 2008 Europeans blamed Georgia--so sure, sanctions were half-hearted. But Russia's economy is suffering now.
Finland has lots of artillery and believes artillery has proven its worth in Ukraine: "U.S. soldiers are firing away north of the Arctic Circle this week as Finland hosts the largest NATO artillery exercise in Europe for the first time since joining the alliance last year."
The INDOPACOM commander worries that increased Chinese military exercises mean China may invade Taiwan by 2027; and he worries about needing the missiles we send to Ukraine. I worry about that, too. But we should not lose the actual war now to prepare for a potential war later. Focus on producing more.
Huh: "Donald Trump is expected to consider recognizing Somaliland as an independent country once he assumes office, according to the former U.K. defense secretary, it was reported on Tuesday." Rewarding people who manage to bring some stability to a corner of the Horn region should be rewarded, no?
Look here! "Iran has defied international demands to rein in its nuclear program and has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog[.]" I think weapons-grade uranium is a mullah red herring.
Germany has a political crisis because economic and financial reality are too much to face, it seems.
The Navy's "classic" dual purpose, rapid-firing Oto Melara 76mm cannon. I did not know that the weapon can shoot down missiles, and so: "Phalanx is not required on ships armed with the 76mm cannon." This must be new because old Perry frigates had the 76mm gun and Phalanx.
The new American Roadrunner jet-powered drone that destroys other drones. We're not at my fighter drone concept (in Army magazine) because Roadrunner is a suicide drone and it costs $400,000 each. That's way too expensive to cope with cheap suicide drones.
The U.S. is sending more military aid to Ukraine. One might consider that rather than trying to start World War III--a ridiculous accusation--Biden may be cooperating with Trump to rush aid to Ukraine to allow Trump to avoid early decisions to arm Ukraine to try the role of "good cop" to Putin for negotiations.
INDOPACOM commander: "Years of high-profile intercontinental ballistic missile tests by North
Korea have fallen short of demonstrating that Pyongyang can successfully
launch and deliver a nuclear warhead against the US mainland[.]" I read North Korea hasn't perfected warheads. It's good to get that updated.
Wait. What? "President Biden approved sending anti-personnel mines to Ukraine late Tuesday, a reversal of policy[.]" We haven't already approved of land mines when Russia is invading Ukraine? When the global ban was agreed to by countries with little risk of being invaded?? When Russia uses lots of mines?!
Top three priorities for the next secretary of defense to deal with: "DEI. Political generals. After dealing with these issues, SecDef Hegseth can turn to rebuilding the Navy." I'm not sure about the next steps.
Ukrainians are fighting for their lives. Of course they need them: "The Pentagon will send Ukraine anti-personnel land mines, a U.S.
official said, in a response to what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said
were changing dynamics on the front lines." Why doesn't Ukraine doesn't make these simple, cheap weapons?
To be fair, the Russian navy is crap: "The U.K. is scrapping five warships, along with a dozen military
helicopters and drones, as part of a cost-cutting program for the army,
Defence Secretary John Healey said Wednesday." Still, we're heading to a Royal Navy I feared. And my hopes for the British army fade.
Well, not literally: "Russia has lost so many soldiers in Ukraine that they have run out of troops." But Russian units will over time become dominated by the support "tail". Although to be fair, Ukraine seems to have a similar problem with infantry.
Women in the Navy. They certainly can cope in peacetime. But in a war, their lack of upper body strength will be dangerous because even a high-tech navy needs muscle power at sea.
The Marines are getting what sounds like a suicide drone--"autonomous kinetic interceptor"--to down enemy drones: "The new CES will soon be deployed to Marine units operating on the frontlines." Still not a fighter drone, as I wrote about in Army magazine.
The U.S. is seen as the weak horse by adversaries. Indeed: "America's efforts to not lose in Ukraine and the Middle East have emboldened enemies in the Middle East to see infinite opportunities to defeat America. If America isn't trying to win, our enemies know that at worst they fail to win. Until they win."
If Russia wants to use ICBMs with a conventional warhead to strike Ukraine, waste them. If Russia wants to pose as a nuclear threat and risk an ICBM spectacularly failing, that will expose Russia's nuclear deterrent as a hollow threat. DOD says it was an IRBM and Russia warned us to avoid nuclear escalation.
FFS: "The Space Force is keeping tabs on test flights for SpaceX’s new Starship megarocket, in anticipation that the super heavy-lift launch vehicle could be used by the Defense Department to send military supplies from one point on Earth to another." This is stupid even with SpaceX efficiency.
Plan B after losing F-35s: "The Baykar TB-3 combat drone landed and took off from the flight deck of the amphibious assault ship Anadolu for the first time this week, a demonstration that officials called a milestone for Turkey’s military capabilities." I mentioned this CVE.
Culture prevents Islamic Arabs from embracing democracy: "Arabs, even Arab leaders, know they need democracy. They have tried everything else, and nothing else works. But democracy is strong medicine for Arabs, and many would rather just talk about it, and go no further. ... Islamic terrorism is the result."
The Netherlands rearms. I commented on their new modularized auxiliary cruisers here.
Good: "Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro has approved a comprehensive plan to revitalize the Military Sealift Command (MSC) and strengthen fleet logistics support capabilities to address mounting workforce challenges." Enemies and the allies they target are far away. But it is just a first step.
Is China sabotaging Baltic Sea underwater cables for Russia? Or is China cooperating with Russia to conceal Russian submarines doing the actual destruction? Did China go from the first to the second to avoid repercussions by having plausible deniability?
Putin and strategery: "The West could never have achieved what Putin has: Ukraine’s total alienation from Russia." That will happen when you grant the F**k-Up Fairy citizenship. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
This entry is to remember this Army Special Operations Command primer on Russia's "little green men."
Allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS and other Western missiles against targets in the Kursk region is unlikely to be decisive. It will help. But it isn't a silver bullet. Which I think means Russian chest-beating and flinging ballistic nuclear poo is (again) performance art.
Were there problems in the civilian or uniformed military chain of command? Political interference in stopping lawful orders? Civilian leaders should have confidence that lawful orders will be obeyed in emergencies. Tip to Instapundit.
I'm just not scared by Russian nuclear threats. That is suicidal and if they are suicidal, ATACMS aren't the problem. Russians helped enemies kill a lot of American troops in Korea, Vietnam, and elsewhere. Putin wants to put on big boy pants to strut on the world stage. If he doesn't like the price, go home.
Treat the International Criminal Court as a propaganda arm of our enemies trying to make it impossible for the West to defend itself. Israel is merely the target of the moment. Tip to Instapundit. Please review actual rules of war, particularly the concept of "proportionality." A handy video at the end is included.
Resistance to the military government in Myanmar continues with little attention from the outside world. That's in part because the Palestinians are a political fuel air explosive that sucks the oxygen out of the media space, choking any other news.
Constellation is the only game in town: "the U.S. Navy is officially seeking a second shipyard for the FFG 62 program, adding to the capacity of Midwest-based Fincantieri Marinette Marine." Are the design problems fixed? I've read we packed 10 pounds of gear into a 5-pound sack. Are costs under control?
Oooh! a censure, a censure! "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) censure resolution against Iran on November 21." So what? We all know what follows from the IAEA when Iran lights the nuke-shaped beacon:
The Third World's Developing World's effort to extort money from the West using a "climate change" club at the COP29 meeting seems to be collapsing in chaos. So sad. Go berate China, eh? See how that works out. Tip to Instapundit.
Hopefully we can carry out the rest of the comprehensive plan I noted in an earlier entry: "Military Sealift Command will sideline 17 ships to ease the stress of civilian mariners, MSC’s commander confirmed Thursday." Keeping mariners in the MSC is good. But eventually more mariners and ships are needed.
"Appears": "Instead of merely guarding Chinese naval bases and supporting an invasion of Taiwan, China's Marine Corps appears to be preparing for amphibious operations around the world — just as US Marines do." China is opaque about what it wants to do from the sea. Heck, what do the U.S. marines do?
Africa corps: "For over a year Ukraine has been supporting rebel groups in Africa that are fighting members of the Russian Afrika Corps. Russia is currently supporting rebel or government forces in several African countries."
Stopping the destruction of its army seems like a good first step: "Because of its heavy personnel and material losses in Ukraine, Russia plans to slowly rebuild its depleted armed forces by 2030."
Is Iran risking an Israeli attack by expanding uranium enrichment? "Iranian media reported that Iran is activating 5,000 centrifuges in response to the censure resolution that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed on November 21." Or does Iran already have nukes?
