America's efforts to not lose in Ukraine and the Middle East have emboldened enemies in the Middle East to see infinite opportunities to defeat America. If America isn't trying to win, our enemies know that at worst they fail to win. Until they win.
There's an observation that the first bad thing to happen is chance, the second bad thing is a coincidence. But the third means enemy action.
We're racking up the bad things in the greater Middle East region at a rapid rate.
The U.S. and allies are trying to protect Red Sea traffic:
This has diminished the Houthi attacks but not entirely eliminated them. That would take a ground war in Yemen.
I disagree that this mission requires a ground war. Although we ruled that option out when we reined in the Saudis. Also, no ground war stopped Somali pirates. And no ground war stopped the German World War II U-boat campaign in the Atlantic. The problem is that we aren't trying to win.
America's refusal to try to win is a problem:
Israel has essentially outsourced its defense responses regarding the Houthis to the US.
Shockingly, there's a hole in that plan:
And now one Israeli is dead and around a dozen wounded in the heart of one of Israel's two most important cities, Tel Aviv [from a Houthi drone strike].
Is it any wonder that Iran has seen how valuable it is to be able to attack shipping there:
Iran is still attempting to establish a permanent naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast following unsuccessful bilateral talks in March 2024.Iran is following the oil to the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.
"Stabilizing" the Horn of Africa region will never happen as long as some Americans have a strange mullah crush on Iran. If we refuse to win the Red Sea campaign, how can we stabilize the entire region?
And it gets worse. We've failed to try to win in Iraq against the Iran threat. So now Iran attacks:
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.
Is it so difficult to remember Iran is our enemy?
If Iraqis don't think we're the strong horse, of course they'll think this is safer:
Anonymous Iraqi political sources cited by Iraqi news outlet al Mada claimed that the Iraqi delegation will request the withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Iraq in three to four months.
This is a bad thing, if
true.
And don't forget Bad Thing Prime, our needless defeat in Afghanistan.
And the effects of bad things expand to Africa generally and not just on the southwest side of the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. There is no way NATO wants to expand to Africa. But just as NATO has an interest in what happens in non-NATO Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus, it has an interest in what happens on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea. And its interest is preventing chaos, which is hardly a threat to Africans. Yet America-led NATO is rejected as a force for good in Africa?
We need to hold the line in the Middle East if we want to focus on the pacing threat China, keep Russia's active threat to a dull roar, and minimize our Africa military role.
But if our enemies and allies see America's military as lions led by donkeys, they will factor that in to their decisions.
And then the Middle East will explode, forfeiting the blood and treasure we expended to reverse the rising tide of threats from the Soviets, jihadis, Saddam, and Iran since the 1980s.
But no, we have a better plan!
Not just Smart Diplomacy!® Before Biden, Congress wanted to practice Brilliant Diplomacy!
And here we are.
Ah, Smart Diplomacy!® That foundational doctrine of our very own Corps Diplomatique Terrestrienne achieves far more in defense of America than enough ships with full magazines, right?
Seriously, why would any enemy fear us when we have this attitude about enemies?
The most frustrating part is that our failures aren't in directly fighting enemies but in simply failing to enable friends and allies to defeat our common enemies. This failure will inevitably lead to the need for America to fight or retreat. While retreating may look smart for a while, it just makes the eventual fight harder.
And closer.
Remember, we aren't "policing" the world. We're bolstering the world so our enemies can't mobilize the rest of the world to attack us.
Have a super sparkly day.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
