What's going on at Second Thomas Shoal? Has Filipino resistance finally forced China to back off--for now? Or will China simply re-calibrate its subliminal campaign of pressure? What is America's role? And what will the role of concrete be in this struggle? Steel won't last forever.
Well that sounds pretty robust:
The United States "will do what is necessary" to see that the Philippines is able to resupply a ship on the Second Thomas Shoal that Manila uses to reinforce its claims to the atoll, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Friday.
So what if instead of using force we support the Philippines with an airlift to the outposts that China is besieging in the South China Sea?
We could airlift Filipino troops, supplies, and building materials to fortify the outposts against Chinese threats via their naval militia that rams and harasses the ships of the Philippines operating in what international law says are Manila's territorial waters.
Would China try to shoot down our helicopters in this Berlin Airlift in the South China Sea and risk war with America?
You recall the ship outpost:
Ultimately the Philippines needs to pour a lot of concrete to replace or reinforce and expand that beached ship serving as a scarecrow outpost. Make it permanent and perhaps China will give up on outlasting the Philippines.
Or perhaps build a new ship designed to be grounded and used as a base.
And do that before China decides to try out its shiny amphibious warfare ships and marines to assault and take the shoal.
And America sent someone with a little more security heft:
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown touched down in the Philippines on Tuesday for the first stop of his second trip to the Indo-Pacific to discuss security cooperation with Washington’s oldest treaty ally in the region.
Hmmm:
China and the Philippines reached a deal they hope will end confrontations at the most fiercely disputed shoal in the South China Sea, the Philippine government said Sunday.
The deal doesn't include a Chinese demand that no building materials be sent to the outpost. The Philippines wisely rejected that condition.
Is Sullivan's resolve made possible by the knowledge that America won't have to help resupply Second Thomas Shoal? Or is the resolve--reinforced by Brown--intended to make sure China can't quietly resume subliminal warfare after backing off from the escalating short-of-shooting force China's coast guard was carrying out?
And when does the Philippines start pouring concrete?
UPDATE: Peace for our ti--never mind:
An interim deal to smooth deliveries to Philippine marines marooned on a ship at a hotly disputed reef in the South China Sea appears to be in doubt after Manila and Beijing gave opposing accounts over what they had agreed to.
Why now resume our normal programming?
UPDATE: Strategypage describes the normal programming, including the most recent that reach piracy levels:
The most recent ones in May and June involved a large number of Chinese ships that physically blocked Filipino Coast Guard and supply ships from reaching the grounded LST. Several of the Filipino RIBs (Rigid Inflatable) were sunk by Chinese sailors in speedboats who came alongside and used knives to puncher the RIBs hull and cause them to sink. A Filipino sailor lost a thumb when his boat collided with a fast moving Chinese speedboat. China seized materials meant for the LST and used loud sirens and strobe lights to disorient Filipino sailors trying to get their boats close to the LST. Among the seized materials were additional weapons for the LST crew.
Do read it all.
UPDATE: Well this seems relevant to Second Thomas Shoal, among other Philippines territory:
The United States is looking to bolster the capabilities of the Philippines to operate lawfully in its waters, a senior White House official said on Wednesday, ahead of a meeting of defense and foreign ministers of the two countries.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
