I plan to start regular posting on The Dignified Rant: Evolved (Substack) beginning August 1, 2024. I will continue Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022 posts as well as shorter posts on the other days here on TDR.
RUSI reports on reasons for the failed 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. Good stuff. Although the lesson on dispersed attacks was not obvious then. They might have been diversions and not dilution of the main effort. Many lessons can be summarized as giving Russia time--the most valuable commodity--to prepare.
It's nice that Apophis will provide us with a really good opportunity to study an asteroid coming really close to Earth. I worry that some end times nutballs with access to spacecraft might nudge such an object toward Earth. I'm not paranoid. I'm imaginative. Tip to Instapundit.
You know who isn't carrying an Olympics torch to Paris this year? Any of the more than a thousand Israelis raped, mutilated, murdered, and kidnapped by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Even destroying Hamas won't be enough to protect Israelis: "Israeli athletes will receive 24-hour protection during the Paris Olympics, France's interior minister said, after a far-left lawmaker said Israel's delegation was not welcome and called for protests against their participation."
This year Sweden and Finland joined the State Partnership Program: "The National Guard is eyeing expansion of its program to train and strengthen relationships with allied countries, an initiative that Pentagon planners hail as a key foreign policy tool."
The weapons we don't have yet always sound amazing: "The next generation of fighter aircraft could bring greater speed, range and ability to penetrate deep into enemy airspace — and it might even feature a revolutionary new type of engine, experts and retired U.S. Air Force officer say." And a seat warmer.
Alignment: "India has made a rapid switch from importing many of its weapons from Russia to obtaining them from Western manufacturers. This included several joint-production agreements where American and French firms negotiated agreements with India to produce Western defense equipmen[.]"
Escape: "There are still more Chinese leaving than foreigners entering as permanent residents." While Chinese intelligence agencies would be fools not to slip some agents into the flow of Chinese illegally entering America, I suspect the overwhelming majority are fleeing China. Corruption remains rampant.
Can missile production keep up? "A new mechanism capable of reloading the U.S. Navy’s vertical launching system (VLS) cells while underway at sea completed its first ground-based test at Naval Surface Warfare Center Port Hueneme Division last week." If we can't get more ships we need full magazines.
Urging more trade with Central Asia as Russia and China dominate. We can't be everywhere. And I hate to get between Russia and China when friction may divide them. But if it helps us flip Russia to oppose China, sure.
Maduro may rig the vote to stop a landslide loss: "After more than two decades of runaway corruption, gross economic
mismanagement and widespread human rights abuses, even many of the
poorest Venezuelans, traditionally the 'Chavista' regime’s strongest
supporters, have turned against it."
Their national interest: "While the West may view India’s engagement with Russia with skepticism, it is clear that New Delhi values its historical ties with Moscow. For Modi, strengthening this relationship is not just about trade; it’s about securing India’s strategic interests[.]" We're pals. I hope India flips Russia.
Strategic tunnel vision is frightening: "The gulf’s value to U.S. strategy certainly is not worth additional defense obligations to the region." One, our trading partners need the oil; two, market flexibility won't fix the loss of oil from there; three, green energy? Really? And four, our military there can cut off China's oil.
Sure: "Russia might arm Yemen’s Houthi rebels with advanced anti-ship missiles in response to Ukraine’s use of American weapons on its territory, U.S. intelligence agencies are warning[.]" Russia effed with us long before Ukraine. So it's no "response". It's recognition we aren't trying to defeat the Houthi.
As Russia wages so-called "hybrid warfare" against the West, the West's best response is to help Ukraine defeat Russia.
Russia had to ground some of its military transport aircraft. Why? "A criminal investigation is now underway after it was found that a factory in Moscow had bought and installed poor-quality wheel bearings instead of those specified by the Ministry of Defence[.]"
I don't care what they say to avoid angering China now. America won't be alone: "Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada are likely to provide no military forces to counter China [if it attacks Taiwan]." The UK needs to watch Russia. Canada has little to offer now. But Japan and Australia will fight at America's side.
From the Heart of Darkness: "The incident
reflects a worrying trend of escalating violence in regions of the DRC –
regions that were previously considered relatively stable compared to
the conflict-ridden East."
That's not what I expect from a major non-NATO ally: "The recent wave of the deaths of dozens of people in Kenya, as police cracked down on protests countrywide, began with the shooting of 30-year-old Rex Masai." I mean, it hasn't even been a month ...
Trying to win is radical: "It’s time to cut supply lines to the Houthis by imitating the Reagan administration, which sank roughly half of Iran’s navy in 1988, ending Iran’s assaults on oil tankers and convincing it to end the war with Iraq." But the naval loss was the excuse--Iraq beat Iran's ground troops.
A move to make dried plasma usable for large-scale combat operations: "The Department of Defense must prioritize development and fielding of dried plasma for the treatment of severe bleeding on the battlefield." Well that doesn't red line my pucker factor one bit.
Has Maduro reached the limits of force? "[with Sunday's election threatening] Maduro’s hold on power, the self-proclaimed socialist is working harder than ever to shore up the loyalty of the armed forces — the traditional arbiter of political disputes in Venezuela — and keep top commanders in line."
Aiming high: "Slovakia received on Monday the first two of the 14 new F-16 military jets from the United States whose delivery was pushed back two years due to the coronavirus pandemic and a lack of chips."
Was he sentenced to die of old age? "The death-penalty trial of a prisoner accused of plotting the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole warship has been set to begin in October 2025. If the plan holds, the trial would coincide with the 25th anniversary of the Qaeda attack, which killed 17 U.S. sailors [in Aden, Yemen.]"
This is only a test: "Nine F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 8th Fighter Wing at Kunsan Air Base, roughly 115 miles southwest of Seoul, will be assigned for a yearlong trial to the 36th Fighter Squadron at Osan Air Base, about 30 miles south of the capital, according to an Air Force news release Thursday."
Baby it's cold outside: "Fresh off a NATO Summit featuring two new members hailing from the high north, the Pentagon today released its newest strategic document outlining the need for both the US and its allies to curb Russian and Chinese ambitions in the arctic." The new members are Finland and Sweden.
Well that's nice for Michigan: "Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro announced that a future Expeditionary Fast Transport, EPF 16, will be named USNS Lansing on July 22."
Our government won't admit Iran is our enemy: "The Houthis remain the best armed and most aggressive rebel force in Yemen. That and orders from their Iranian patron are why they have recently been firing their Iranian anti-ship missiles at commercial shipping and American destroyers in the Red Sea." Yeah.
Is Russia's stumble in Ukraine really proof the Soviets were a paper tiger? I don't think so. The multi-national front line in West Germany had weaknesses to be exploited. And ultimately, the Red Army didn't have to advance that far to defeat NATO. And we still don't know who will win this war, eh?
More on the Red Sea Regatta: "We’ve been playing 'unscheduled range time' with the sub-4th rate, quasi-piratical, non-state actor Houthis in the Red Sea for the last nine months or so." It's Smart Diplomacy®! With missiles! I have concerns, too.
Does Putin really want Trump as president? I doubt it. What Putin wants is divisions within America and uncertainty about America's value as an ally abroad. And who does that? Putin or Americans hysterically creating divisions? Putin hates all of us. Maybe we shouldn't hate us, too.
Using JDAMs with multiple guidance systems, "a U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bomber also took part in the second SINKEX, demonstrating a low-cost, air-delivered method for neutralizing surface vessels using the QUICKSINK." This takes me to my basic point about proliferating anti-ship weapons.
Proposal: "It is time to merge the Guard and Reserve in both the Army and the Air Force." Should this be a dual state and federal force? Would that prevent the federal government from rapidly bolstering active forces with reserves without state resistance? Does the reverse hurt states that need military capabilities?
It's nice to have a break from war with international sports. Oh: "France’s Interior Ministry rejected around 5,000 security accreditation requests for Olympics volunteers and workers, with roughly 1,000 of those cases blocked due to suspicions of meddling or espionage."
That's not good: "Ukraine has apparently received and used so many Patriot missiles that the worldwide supply of missiles available to Ukraine is running low."
Help: "FDR took two key actions to address the growing threats to democracy: creating Lend-Lease and deciding to make the U.S. 'the arsenal of democracy.' These initiatives afforded the U.S. a crucial running start in ramping up production before Washington entered World War II[.]" Will we see Lend Lease 2.0?
Primary mission be damned: "The Marines plan to equip every squad—from logistics units to reconnaissance teams deep in enemy territory—with a suite of tools to take down drones[.]" That's why I want fighter drones, as I advocated in Army magazine.
Maybe North Korea sent too much ammo to Russia to do more: "It’s not the cross-border barrage South Koreans have been fearing, but a balloon carrying a bag of trash floated over from North Korea and hit the presidential compound, security officials said Wednesday."
While news reports suggest Iran is engineering the ejection of American forces from Iraq, it doesn't seem like it will happen: "The [US and Iraqi] delegations discussed a range of bilateral security issues under the 2008 U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement and in recognition of our comprehensive partnership."
Netanyahu knows you shouldn't preemptively offer concessions: "Netanyahu vowed to press on with the war until 'total victory,' disappointing hopes by some that the Israeli leader's visit to the United States could bring some breakthrough in negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage-release."
Small drones: "DIU produces what’s called the Blue UAS Cleared List of platforms and components, including ground-control systems, from which military units can find verified systems and vendors for their specific missions."
Fresh units: "Three Army brigades will deploy to Europe, South Korea and the Middle East in the fall as part of regular troop rotations, the Army announced." An armored, Stryker, and infantry brigade, respectively.
Stopping small drones: "Eight counter-UAS systems — wielding a mix of radars, machineguns, missiles, jammers, and more — were tested against swarms of up to 50 drones of different types attacking simultaneously from different directions and speeds. " Two words: fighter drones.
Not sure what the American pier at Gaza achieved other than optics, but practice is practice: "Still, using the pier in a real-world combat zone likely helped prove its use to the Pentagon[.]" Maybe one day we'll find out how much Hamas stole.
Just going to say that China got to see Russian bombers up close: "[NORAD] Command intercepted two Russian and
two Chinese bombers flying near Alaska Wednesday in what a US defense
official said was the first time the two countries have been intercepted while operating together." In case that matters.
The alliance of losers. Toss Iran and Syria into that. And then consider that Cuba and Venezuela dream of being worthy of such lofty status. Ah, China. The middle kingdom between Heaven and losers.
Ukraine's thin and fraying air defense shield. It sure seems like somebody could figure out how to correct the fact that Ukraine has almost 10,000 "expired [S300 and short range Buk-M1] missiles and lacks the resources to refurbish them." Luckily Russia has ground attack missile supply problems, too.
How's America's credibility with allies and enemies going?
This time a saboteur was caught before doing damage: "KnowBe4, a US-based security vendor, revealed that it unwittingly hired a North Korean hacker who attempted to load malware into the company's network." Tip to Instapundit.
It's from artillery shortages rather than a choice: "Drones, which were once peripheral to the war, are a central component for both sides, alongside infantry and artillery as Ukraine struggles to hold back Russian advances." What would they choose if artillery wasn't in short supply?
Hidebound? "It’s early days, but the signs are strong that Taiwan’s new government will insist on much more of a porcupine strategy for national defence than many officers in the country’s hidebound armed forces have been willing to accept." This is suicidal wonder weapon worship. Add--not replace--weapons!
How is the Major Richard Star Act vital to pass when we have the entire VA department with the mission of taking care of veterans--including "combat-injured" veterans?
Tyranny in Hong Kong, courtesy of the Chinese Communist Party: "It’s not just Lai’s newspaper they didn’t want you to read, it’s Jimmy Lai they don’t want you to hear." Tip to Instapundit.
Friends: "The Philippines and Singapore signed a defense pact Wednesday that will allow their militaries to broaden their engagement, but few details were given about how the agreement could help address their security concerns in a region rife with conflicts."
China is a-hole: South China Sea edition.
Hamas can deny getting its ass kicked by Israel. But we don't have to go along with it.
Trump may be overly optimistic he can end the Winter War of 2022 in 24 hours, but whatever he intends it isn't throwing Ukraine under the bus. Honestly, American and European commentators wringing their hands about that likely encourage Putin to believe he can outlast the West.
Russia got America to stop Ukraine from carrying out an operation? Hmmm. If true, I'll guess it involves sabotaging Russian oil infrastructure. But that's a guess based on past American opposition to continuing Ukrainian anti-energy strikes; and referring to hitting "Russian targets behind enemy lines".
Strategypage reviews the internal war in Myanmar (Burma).
The 2024 Summer Olympics War begins: "SNCF trains in France at a standstill after 'massive' arson attack: Chaos for 800,000 travellers[.]" Jihadis? Russia? Global warming fanatics? Local leftists or Iran have also been raised as potential actors.
Shadow war: "Germany's BfV domestic intelligence service has described an increase in Russian sabotage activities in the European Union[.]" That's how Russia gets more of this: "EU sends first $1.6 billion from frozen Russia assets to Ukraine[.]"
The long history of the region known as Palestine. But never say Hamas has no hope.
Huh: "Miscalculations in the value of weaponry the United States has sent to Ukraine has again been uncovered, increasing the Pentagon's purse to supply its besieged ally by another $2 billion." I want to aid Ukraine to defeat Russia. And sure, government makes errors. Do all corrections go one way?
I seem to recall liking articles I've read from the author. But no matter how many sci-fi futures of high-tech warfare painted, why does it seem to turn out to be something more like trench warfare in Ukraine?
Iran sends a message: "Four rockets struck Thursday near Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq, which houses U.S. troops, but there were no reported injuries, and there was no damage to the base[.]" Or maybe jihadis. Hard to say.
I'm not sure what priorities Air Force leadership has these days, but a damning B-1 crash report sure doesn't indicate it includes a focus on flying, fighting, and winning. The days of just precisely bombing enemies helpless to respond are over. Act accordingly, eh? Purge 'em all, let God sort them out.
In the 1990s some called it Africa's World War I: "Last year, the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo turned 30 [but] received almost no global attention. ... Since its inception, the war in Congo has excelled at evading international recognition." But sure, focus on the Palestinians.
I'd forgotten the Hamas proto-invasion attempt in 2018, where I commented: "I hope Israel has mobile barriers to build back up halt lines in case the border is penetrated." But I sure didn't anticipate an invasion designed for mass rape and slaughter of Israelis rather than goading Israel into killing Gazan "civilians".
India reaches out to ASEAN. From Look East, India is trying to move past Act East to Fight East.
Armenia can recapture lost territory, obsess over lost lands for generations, or move on and make the best Armenia they can with what they have now: "Following a tense spring, it appears that Armenian and Azerbaijani officials are making progress on a peace agreement." Unless Azerbaijan wants more land.
I can't remember if I noted this story about Ukrainians "flying drones into Russia and dropping mines onto key roads inside enemy territory." I wonder if the purpose of the story is to provide a cover for special forces or resistance forces laying mines.
There is danger in this Peking-Manila deal: "The Philippines on Saturday completed unimpeded a resupply trip to its troops at a disputed South China Sea shoal[.]" One, it conceded China has power to limit Filipino actions in its own territory. Two, one limit is no concrete to replace that rusting outpost.
Hmmm: "In Ukraine, the majority of Russian soldiers killed or wounded are the work of armed drones." I read conflicting information. Some say artillery is still the primary killer. I don't know who is right. I don't know what the time frames are for rival assertions. Both could be right depending on when you count.
Bye "post-Cold War" era: "The number of European soldiers available has declined precipitously since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. The war in Ukraine has forced European nations to rethink their military situation." Still, "European armed forces are full of people in uniform who have a civil service mentality."
India sees China as a major threat and is determined to build naval power to be a global power. That's ambitious. But there's a more immediate problem at sea for India.
The issue of using the term "radical Islamic terrorism" seems to have arisen again. I will repeat that if people try to censor that accurate term because it allegedly offends all Moslems, people will rightly draw the conclusion that all of Islam is a danger rather than the precisely defined radical Islamic terrorists.
The Army's long-range missile push: "The US Army revealed last week that the 1st MDTF (Multi-Domain Task Force) included for the first time the LRHW (Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon) in the bi-annual Exercise Resolute Hunter[.]" This is the the most dramatic of the missiles for five planned MDTFs.
Building the Constellation-class frigate based on a proven European FREMM design was seen as salvation for the troubled Navy shipbuilding record. But "unfortunately, the program has strayed into the kind of trouble that seems to follow the U.S. Navy wherever it goes." The Navy could ef up a wet dream.
At some level I hope all the talk of Ukrainian troubles notwithstanding renewed American and continued European military aid is misdirection to enable a significant Ukrainian counter-attack to give a Russian offensive effort a bloody nose. Not a war-winner. Just proof that Ukraine can seize the initiative locally.
It's so odd that only American support for dissent provokes a "rally around the flag" effect: "The top U.S. intel official is warning that 'actors tied to Iran’s government' are providing funding and stoking anti-Israel protests on U.S. soil in an 'increasingly aggressive' campaign." No outrage can dull love for the mullahs.
Pacific naval balance: "The U.S. Navy is arguably ceasing to be the most powerful fleet in the Pacific Ocean though American allies like South Korea, Japan and Australia have contributed a growing number of warships and submarines." But China's corruption undermines its fleet. On the other hand ...
Russia is jamming its prisons with war opponents, ethnic Ukrainians and: "Moslems suspected of being Islamic terrorists, [that] has tuned many usually docile prisoners into violence prone enemies of the state." Ukrainian soldiers are put there to evade responsibilities to treat them as POWs. It's a potential war zone.
Uh oh: "Bangladesh’s youth uprising, with its echoes of the Arab Spring, illustrates how corruption, cronyism, and inequality tend to accompany GDP growth, especially under an increasingly authoritarian regime." That's a distraction for India.
Hezbollah denies responsibility: "The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and 'youths' and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, northern Israel, on July 27." Will that denial matter? Or did the countdown to the next war start?
At the end of April I vowed to stop commenting on political issues. You have to admit that the news since then has really tested my restraint. But as I reasoned, plenty of people comment on politics. I can stay in my lanes in good conscience.
