America's Ten-Year Rule Turns Fifteen

Have we decided we're in a potential pre-war period in time to overcome our long no-war theory of history?

Were the seeds of losing a naval arms race with China sown in the 1990s? 

Beijing has been indulging in an unprecedented "peacetime" naval buildup for 20 years, right out in the open. In his latest substack, milblogger CDR Salamander detailed the massive investments China has made since 2005 in its warship-building capacity.

Is the blame from the 1990s "when this country stopped being a serious nation"?

Sort of. In 1996 the Chinese found they couldn't even find our carriers sailing east of Taiwan, as I noted in this 2005 post about Chinese efforts to build the naval power needed to conquer Taiwan just 100 miles off their coast:

In 1996, the Chinese could not invade. Nor could they hold off the US Navy long enough even if they could have invaded. Indeed, the Chinese were horrified that they could not even locate our two carriers let alone target them during the 1996 missile crisis. (And we were horrified that we couldn't easily communicate with the Taiwanese, making it possible we were visibly backing the Taiwanese when they might have been preparing to strike without our knowledge. Hence our current hotline). And at some point in the future, the Chinese will have the ability to invade without a doubt given their trend lines. Some say a decade. Some say two. (I say sooner)

The Chinese reacted to that weakness. And how. But we were so far ahead that I place the blame in 2009 when America declared a Ten-Year Medium Term Rule for reduced defense capabilities that assumed no significant threat:

We've just instituted the Medium Term Rule on our defense spending. The problems that will flow from this plan won't show themselves in the near term. We can coast on our past progress in building the best military in the world. But have no doubt that our military strength will erode, and this means we are accepting risks in case we have to fight a conventional war in the medium term despite our assumption that we can still win such a war.

We won't cancel the Medium Term Rule until it's too late to do any good.

We keep hinting that we will end the Medium Term Rule. And we have spasms of defense activity for specific threats and capabilities. But the Navy sits on a pier and spins, going nowhere as it revolves around super carriers. That soaks up a lot of our shipbuilding capacity, no?

I'm seriously worried about the Navy's leadership that lacks a sense of urgency more than I'm worried about fleet size, as horrified as I am about our shipbuilding and shipyard repair capacity.

And don't get me started on reloading our ships' magazines to keep them in the fight and compensate for fewer numbers.

Still, the Navy doesn't fight alone any more than the PLAN does. We have naval power allies and China does not. I also hope our land-based air and missile power are well integrated into our sea control plan. Maybe that buys us time to build a bigger Navy.

I am an optimist, aren't I?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.