We have a new stage in the Last Hamas War. The stage that rescues Hamas and makes sure there will eventually be Last Hamas War II. We're at the point where Israel needs to dig a moat around Gaza and stock it with alligators.
An offer Israel couldn't refuse?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government begrudgingly accepted President Biden's plan for a cease-fire in Gaza on Sunday.
Netanyahu's office initially appeared to contradict Biden's plan in a statement on Saturday, saying Israel’s conditions for ending the war – the destruction of Hamas's military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel – had not changed.
"The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter," his office wrote.
Biden's plan appears to allow for Hamas to continue to exist and play some role in Gaza, however.
Hamas says it likes the part about a permanent ceasefire. Kind of like the one that existed on October 6, 2023, I assume. Before Hamas and its sick little allies went on a murder, torture, rape, and kidnapping spree across Israel.
Smart Diplomacy® is a wonder to behold. We'll be lucky if it isn't much worse.
We'll see if Hamas makes Israel's acceptance moot by
refusing the offer. After all, contrary to the American administration assertion, not all hostages can be released. Because you don't "release" murdered hostages.
Or maybe Israel intends to turn its attention north in one form or another.
But perhaps I'm too cynical. Maybe Israel sincerely sees the occupation of the Philadelphia corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border as the last piece of the puzzle on the table before shifting to a quieter intelligence-based campaign to hunt down Hamas leadership. That may even be accurate.
Perhaps a publicly reluctant Israeli acceptance is designed to get Hamas to believe this is actually a rescue when in reality the Mossad and special forces hit teams are already poring over intelligence reports on Hamas leadership movements.
But I'm rarely too cynical. I fear that "ending" the war is just a period to let Hamas reload. Because Hell, Hamas won't even have to rebuild Gaza! The West will do that for them. And Hamas will skim weapons money off the top of that scheme.
UPDATE: If Israel accepts a ceasefire in Gaza to go after Hezbollah, the Biden administration may with to review the curse of "beware of what you wish for because you just might get it":
Israel’s war cabinet is set to discuss Tuesday evening the escalation on the border with Lebanon after rocket fire caused dozens of fires in the north of Israel.
That would be a serious new phase of the war--a broader war to pull Iran's fangs biting into Israel.
UPDATE: To be fair, this crosses no red lines at Rafah:
The Israeli military launched a new ground and air assault in central Gaza on Tuesday, as its forces ramp up attacks amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Also, Hamas could end the humanitarian crisis any time by surrendering.
UPDATE: Israel doesn't have to reject the plan:
A senior Hamas official responded negatively on June 4 to the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal for the Gaza Strip. Hamas appears unlikely to accept a proposal that does not meet the maximalist demands that Hamas has maintained since December 2023.
Hamas is committed to killing Jews no matter how many Gazan human shields have to die to do that. And no matter how hungry those Gazans get.
UPDATE: Chances of success go up when Hamas remembers that it only has to pretend to want peace:
The Biden administration has launched an intense drive to persuade Hamas and Israel to accept a new cease-fire proposal in the nearly eight-month-old war in Gaza while it also presses Arab nations to get the militant group to go along with the terms.
UPDATE: Shifting phases is still in progress:
With a renewed ceasefire push in the eight-month-old Gaza war stalled, Israel bombarded central and southern areas again on Friday, killing at least 28 Palestinians, and tank forces advanced to the western edges of Rafah.
Who were the Palestinians killed? Fighters? Civilians? If the latter, who is responsible for them being in the line of fire? Israelis or the known human shield-holders, Hamas?
UPDATE: Good:
Four Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas from the Nova music festival during the 7 October attacks have been rescued in a daylight raid deep in central Gaza.
Even better is destroying Hamas so it can't capture, rape, torture, and murder more Israelis.
UPDATE: In some ways the fighting in Hamas now seems like an inter-war period:
Israeli officials are continuing to discuss an offensive into Lebanon amid an increase in Hezbollah drone attacks targeting northern Israel.
Seemingly, Israel would try to force Hezbollah north of the Litani River which is supposed to be their southern limit since 2006.
This article looks at Israeli options.
I looked at options, too. I'm torn. As the Hamas War winds down--hopefully to an intelligence-driven raid form of warfare against Hamas leaders and assets--the odds of military action against Hezbollah may rise if Hezbollah persists in shooting. Trying diplomacy first makes sense because Israel is busy with Hamas and to satisfy American desire for "war is the last resort" status.
If Hezbollah persists in attacking, Israel has incentive to attack while their military is geared up for war. And if war is the option, advancing to the Litani River with ground forces to clear out Hezbollah is the minimum level of war.
That might be enough if Lebanon and the UN actually fill the vacuum, allowing Israel to withdraw without allowing Hezbollah to flow south to the Israeli border.
If Israel can't get a friendly force into the south that is willing to keep Hezbollah out, Israel will need to drive all the way to the Bekaa Valley to seriously rip apart Hezbollah's rear areas to set back Hezbollah capabilities for years.
Or maybe this is a bluff to convince Hezbollah to stand down or face the power that devastated Gaza.
UPDATE: This is BS:
Hamas gambled on the suffering of civilians in Gaza. Netanyahu played right into it[.]
Played right into it, indeed. What world does that author live in?
Hamas didn't gamble on suffering. Hamas ensured it by using their own civilians as human shields to protect themselves from Israel's justifiable wrath following the Hamas October 7, 2023 mass rape, torture, murder, and kidnapping invasion.
And no matter how few Gazans died because Israel could have restrained its lawful use of force even more, Hamas would have worked harder to use human shields and simply lied--and those who hate Jews would have believed it.
UPDATE: America's push for a ceasefire is dangerous:
Hamas issued new demands on June 11 in response to the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the new demands as going beyond Hamas’ previous negotiating position and questioned whether Hamas is acting in good faith in the talks.
Whaaat?? Hamas might not be acting in good faith? Whatchu talkin' about, Antony?
What would we do without the insights of top diplomats?
Blinken is trying to get a compromise number between Israel's demand that Hamas kill no more Jews. And Hamas wants to kill all the Jews--no matter how many involuntary martyrs are created from Gazan human shields to do that.
I shudder to think what number Blinken has in mind.
Ah, Smart Diplomacy®.
As Israel celebrates the rare return of some of their hostages, Western media for the most part focuses on the tragic death toll at the end of the extraction operation.
Implicit in their coverage is that Israel is responsible, and perhaps careless, for killing 200+ people in the raid. But what is not said is that the extraction itself killed very few people, and probably almost all terrorists. The deadly fight was started afterwards, and pointlessly, by Hamas.
This is really just symbolic of how Hamas bears the responsibility for the vast majority of Gazan civilian casualties in this war. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: Israel taps out during daylight hours, it seems:
The Israeli military announced it will conduct a daily "tactical pause" in its activities in the south of the Gaza Strip to allow more aid deliveries.
UPDATE: The new stage will begin soon. What will it be?
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that the conflict is about to enter a new stage.
In part, it means the war on Hamas in Gaza will get less intensely kinetic. But no ceasefire. Selective firepower use and raids to kill Hamas leaders or rescue hostages; as well as likely increased Hamas attacks within Gaza and into Israel, will punctuate a quieter war. And this is what the ground control will look like:
Israel is expected to retain control of Gaza’s border with Egypt, to deter arms smuggling there. It is also expected to continue to occupy a strip of land that separates northern and southern Gaza, preventing free movement between the two areas.
What it means for governance is unclear. I have a suggestion.
The larger question is whether Israel goes to war with Hezbollah to take care of all business while its military is mobilized and while its people see the need to prevent threats:
After drawing down troops in Gaza, [Netanyahu] said, “We will be able to move part of our forces to the north.”
I doubt Hezbollah wants to take on Israel while Israelis are pissed as Hell. I don't know what Israel wants or is capable of doing after the long, intense war with Hamas.
Of course, the question of whether that becomes a war between Israel and Iran is an issue, too. I doubt either really wants that now. But you never know how "events" will influence courses of action.
UPDATE: Palestinian Islamic Jihad attacked:
Israel’s military says Palestinian armed groups in Gaza have launched about 20 rockets towards Israeli border communities - the heaviest such attack in months.
A number of the projectiles were intercepted and others landed inside southern Israel, but no injuries were reported. The military said it responded with artillery fire.
That was fast. The war may be different in Gaza. But it will remain a war.
UPDATE: And a response:
The Israeli army said it had attacked rocket launch pads in the south of Gaza during the night following rocket fire from the coastal strip.
In order to avoid civilian casualties, residents of eastern neighbourhoods of the city of Khan Younis were asked to leave the affected area, the army said.
UPDATE: This will need to be ongoing:
Israeli forces have located and destroyed the largest long-range rocket manufacturing site utilized by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip[.]
UPDATE: When does Hamas tap out for Hezbollah?
The pro-Iranian Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah has fired some 200 missiles and drones into areas in northern Israel, it said on Thursday, to avenge the previous day's killing of one of their commanders.
The Biden administration wants Israel to end its wholly righteous war on the Hamas barbarians. Be careful what you wish for.
UPDATE: Hmmm. Israel has re-escalated on the ground after many months of low-level commitment to ground fighting. Hamas seems like it wants the war to end rather than thinking it can exploit a continuing war.
UPDATE: Will Israel have to move to a new phase of the war without really completing this phase?
Hamas likely retains the institutional knowledge and skilled commanders required to reconstitute despite the loss of several high-ranking Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip since October 2023.
UPDATE: Has Israel's Rafah operation finally isolated Hamas in Gaza and made Hamas eager to end the war?
UPDATE: Victory or Smart Diplomacy®?
The U.S., Israel and the United Arab Emirates held a meeting in Abu Dhabi last Thursday to discuss plans for Gaza after the war ends, two Israeli officials said.
Again, I have a suggestion.
UPDATE: Hamas has a suggestion, too, along with Fatah and other unnamed factions:
The agreement stipulates that a government partly influenced by Hamas would rule the Gaza Strip and West Bank until elections could be held at an unspecified future date.
That doesn't seem like anything Israel could--or should--accept.
US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. Dahlan is a former Fatah official who was a close advisor to former Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasser Arafat. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 25 that under the plan, Dahlan would oversee an interim security force of 2,500 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip after Israeli troops withdraw, citing Arab officials. The United States, Israel, and Egypt would vet the Palestinian personnel, who would work in coordination with unspecified international forces and even private Western security firms.
The interim security forces will be compromised. Perhaps the personnel vetting the recruits would be intimidated, bribed, or secretly loyal to Hamas. Or the personnel recruited will be intimidated, bribed, or secretly loyal to Hamas. Or they'll simply turn actively anti-Israel if Israel continues to fight the war in Gaza in a new, lower intensity war in the shadows.
And as ISW notes, the force is too small to suppress Hamas trying to rebuild in Gaza. So Israel will still need to fight Hamas if Israel doesn't want to just pretend to win by losing the so-called peace.
We need Palestinians who hate Hamas and its jihadi allies more than they hate Israel. That is more effective than vetting which is just an attitude check at a moment in time.
NOTE: This seems like a new phase of the war, so I'll be updating this going forward.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
