Ukraine's war effort was crippled by the 6-month gap in American military aid authority. As the aid flows again, don't get expectations up too high. This isn't a silver bullet. Ukraine has lost ground and even restored aid will only reclaim lost capabilities for a while before increasing Ukraine's military capabilities beyond what they were when aid halted.
Is resumed American aid building up a head of steam to help Ukraine rock Russia back on its heels?
Advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Mykhaylo Podolyak stated that US-provided military aid has started arriving on the frontline but that it will take "weeks" for the gradual increase in US-provided military aid to reach "critical volumes."
As more aid comes in, Ukraine is also working on their personnel shortage:
Ukrainian field commanders' decisions to train newly-deployed personnel on the front before committing them to combat indicates that the overall quality of Ukrainian forces will likely remain higher than that of Russian forces in the near- to mid-term.
This author thinks Russia has seriously hurt Ukraine by attacking all along the front:
The outlook in Ukraine is bleak. However, if Ukraine’s allies engage now to replenish Ukrainian munitions stockpiles, help to establish a robust training pipeline, and make the industrial investments to sustain the effort, then Russia’s summer offensive can be blunted, and Ukraine will receive the breathing space it needs to regain the initiative.
But he has some hope of Ukraine stemming the tide. We'll see if Russia's telegraphed summer offensive was based on America not resuming aid. If so, the small nibbling attacks may be all we see of the Big Push. TDI is skeptical that Russia will make that kind of effort.
UPDATE (Monday): Air defense is needed:
Ukraine imposed emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on Sunday, a day after Russia unleashed large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure and claimed it made gains in the eastern Donetsk province.
And Ukraine won't train their troops as much as they should be:
As Ukraine prepares to mobilize tens of thousands of men to address a critical shortage of soldiers amid intensified Russian attacks, Ukrainian commanders in the field say they are bracing for most of the new troops to arrive with poor training.
The article also mentions the issue I noted in the main body about training existing soldiers transferred to combat units.
I've commented that after Army basic training, I was just a rough-stamped cog only ready to be finished and put in the Green Machine.
UPDATE (Thursday): The pig is finally reaching the end of the ammo python:
Western-provided artillery ammunition has reportedly started arriving to Ukrainian forces on the frontline, although not at a scale that would allow Ukrainian forces to fully challenge the Russian military's current artillery shell advantage.
Will this deter Putin from carrying out the suspected summer Big Push?
UPDATE (Thursday): FFS:
Ukrainian officials are pressing the U.S. and other countries to ramp up their F-16 pilot training, saying the current pipeline isn’t producing enough aviators to fly the jets that will be soon donated to Kyiv.
Hey, instead of ignoring the urgency, how about acting like there's a war on and expand the capacity to train?
Maybe jump start the whole thing with contract pilots, trainers, and maintainers, eh?
UPDATE (Sunday): Are Russians growing tired of dying for Putin?
Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov claimed in an interview with Russian state media outlet RT on June 8 that Russian authorities decided to transfer elements of the Akhmat Spetsnaz to the Kharkiv direction from unspecified areas at the end of May 2024. Alaudinov claimed that the "Kashtan" detachment, formerly known as Akhmat "Kamerton" detachment and renamed after its new commander, is operating in the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated on June 8 that Akhmat forces are serving as blocking units – specialized disciplinary units that fire upon friendly forces if they engage in an unauthorized retreat – in the international border area, and it is possible that the Russian military command transferred Akhmat forces to the area solely for this purpose and not to conduct offensive operations.
One would think that's overdue. But the question is whether that reluctance matters in the face of Putin's determination to send them to die and make sure they die from Ukrainian bullets or the bullets of his Chechen enforcers.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
