China massacred its subjects at Tiananmen Square 35 years ago. I observed that if China had unmanned ground vehicles that "Tank Man" would have been quickly murdered. In unrelated news: "China has showcased robot dogs capable of firing machine guns in the latest display of its military prowess."
The Palestinians continue to be their own worst enemy. Why the Biden administration wants to re-crown them as Queen of the Victim Prom is beyond my powers of comprehension. Rewarding Hamas for their rape and murder invasion of Israel is no way to pound sanity into their collective skull.
We need it: "Despite these continued successes, U.S. opinion polls indicate that 81
percent of Americans have confidence in their military. This is down
from 90 percent twenty years earlier." The Afghanistan debacle broke my confidence in our flag officers. Below them, the military is still good. Will the rot stop?
I've posted on the American X-37 space plane. China has one, too: "China’s experimental reusable spacecraft has released an unknown object into orbit while conducting its third mission." Tip to Instapundit.
The front line: "Defense officials in NATO member Poland presented plans on Monday for fortifying its eastern border with Moscow ally Belarus." That seems prudent. Add that to the Baltic states digging in.
U.S.-Australia Defense Policy and Strategy Talks: "The DPST is the premier defense policy dialogue for the U.S.-Australia alliance to address shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond by ensuring close coordination and promoting the alignment of strategic guidance."
Deterrence requires it: "A Polish official said the US told Russia it would strike Russian targets in Ukraine if Putin used a nuke." We'd use conventional weapons--not nukes. Tactical nukes were the pre-precision weapons means of hitting important battlefield targets. We don't need nukes to inflict that damage now.
Detecting and defeating the threat: "The Baltic states announced plans alongside Norway, Finland and Poland to construct a 'drone wall' along their shared borders with Russia on Sunday."
China likes to act as it this is an internal law enforcement issue and not subliminal conquest: "The Philippines has protested China's imposition of a unilateral four-month long fishing ban in the South China Sea, its foreign ministry said on Monday." China wins if we accept their internal issue claim.
Huh: "North Korea condemned China, Japan and South Korea on Monday for committing to denuclearise the Korean peninsula, describing their joint declaration after a rare summit in Seoul as a "grave political provocation" that violates its sovereignty." I guess China no longer considers their little pet psycho useful.
So, how stable is the Mosul Dam these days? I remember our special forces moving in to secure it 2003 to prevent it from being blown by enemies. Since the Islamic State period, I haven't heard much.
More than two decades of wartime blogging has made me wary of trying to connect dots. Especially in a huge country like America. But man, if this isn't a pattern to worry about it sure looks like one. It's a vulnerability an enemy should try to exploit. But again, scattered dots don't really form pictures. Do they?
But he's such a polite proto-fascist! "Justin Trudeau is running out of time." I don't want to visit Canada while his policies rule the country. Still, the charge of "Conservatives pounce!" might save the man.
Britain's return to the Indo-Pacific "east of Suez" is folly? Maybe. Britain's military was redesigned so it would have influence in a post-Brexit global trading network. Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have invalidated that strategy. But Europe's need for Britain's military may negate continental EU hostility.
Well, yeah: "the Biden Administration’s goal is to have Hamas survive this war victorious and to achieve the lost-but-now-found two-state solution in the post-war period." That's what I've been saying. It's Smart Diplomacy® to help our enemies win!
This article denies that the Baltic Sea is a NATO lake since Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Hogwash. Just because Russia still has bases on the sea only means Russia can contest the sea. For a while. Their naval forces will survive no better than NATO troops in West Berlin would have survived war in 1987.
Smart Diplomacy®: "The Biden administration is pressing European allies to back off plans to rebuke Iran for advances in its nuclear program, even as it expands its stockpile of near-weapons-grade fissile material to a record level ... ." Of course Biden did that. I bet our allies could use mean tweets about now.
Escalation: "Western intelligence officials stated that the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) are behind a series of low-level sabotage operations throughout Europe that aim to disrupt Western arms supplies to Ukraine and create the appearance of a European movement opposing support for Ukraine."
Explain to me again why we shouldn't support a "color" revolution movement in Russia: "Russian officials are considering delisting the Taliban as a prohibited organization in Russia and will likely do so in the near term."
The sanctuary in the air: "Belgium’s pledge on Tuesday to send the first batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine this year comes with a clear warning to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Don’t fly them in Russian territory." Still, it's a good donation--30 aircraft.
Good Lord ...: "A Papua New Guinea government official has told the United Nations that more than 2,000 people are believed to have been buried alive by last Friday's landslide and has formally asked for international help."
China's submarine force: "Their submarines are poorly designed and built. The crews are often poorly trained and supervised." That apparently remains an important advantage for us. But China keeps pushing and we see their subs in the central Pacific more often. Eventually the subs will be dangerous.
Sucks to be North Korea: "North Korea continues its economic decline and risk of political collapse. More North Koreans are malnourished and starvation deaths are increasing. " Draft evasion is rampant. How long can Kim Jong Un rely on spooks and nukes to keep his ruling kooks in power? Surely there's a limit.
I don't overlook Russia's strategy of out-bleeding Ukraine. It's that I don't think Russia can continue that long enough to win if we supply Ukraine. I think a Russia willing to bleed makes it more important to keep it as far east as possible. Sure, Democrats' sudden Russia conversion is ... odd. Gratefully accept it!
Instapundit said our war logistics look shaky because of this: "A floating pier on the shores of the Gaza Strip, set up to provide a lifeline to the Palestinian territory, has faced a rocky start, with one report claiming that it was 'sinking.'" FFS. This doesn't reflect war logistics. It's a Michigan GOTV operation.
Does Iran already have nuclear weapons? That's my worry: "I've long wondered if Iran would exploit the intense focus on its enrichment status to hide its acquisition of nuclear weapons from North Korea. Iran's rulers are nutballs--not stupid--I argued." North Korea could have shipped nukes through Russia to Iran.
Putin wants to partition Ukraine because his military is too weak, his people too weary, and China isn't coming to the rescue with a second front: "In short, he is now looking for an exit from a war he started but can’t afford to see through." Putin would use the time gained to reload. Russia must retreat for peace.
Proto-despots wage war on proto-subjects: "This is a war against ‘hate speech’ and ‘disinformation’, which the EU claims pose an existential threat to democracy. In truth, it is the Eurocrats’ censorious designs that are the real danger to Europeans’ liberties." The EU wants all the prefixes stripped. Kill it.
I wish I trusted the investigators: "The Afghanistan War Commission’s probe is getting very real." We screwed the pooch in 2009, 2016, and 2021. I'm not sure which was key. But only the last one was fatal. And I don't know if the state of denial of those responsible will ever end. That's as real as this gets.
Replicating the CRAF air transport reserve: "A new program called the Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve, or CASR, will ensure the Space Force can rely on commercial vendors’ space systems throughout a 'spectrum of conflict.'"
The Army wants to replace its Shadow tactical drone with a new basic airframe "to be runway independent, have on-the-move command and control and soldier-led field level maintenance"; and that can be reconfigured easily with software and payloads as future requirements and capabilities arise.
Putin lies about Ukraine's constitution to claim Zelensky's presidency is illegitimate. But this is perfectly legal under martial law which was invoked after Putin invaded Ukraine. Putin is the last man who should lecture us about limits on terms of office.
NATO exercises in Lithuania: "Just as the allies stood up for us during the Cold War, we are standing up for the security and freedom of our partners today - on every square centimetre of the alliance's territory," Carsten Breuer, the Bundeswehr's highest-ranking officer, told dpa while visiting Vilnius."
Russian cruelty misses no targets: "Russian authorities are preparing to intensify the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia throughout Summer 2024, further consolidating another component of Russia's genocidal campaign in Ukraine."
Huh: "Iranian production models for Shahed drones and Iranian drone technologies are at the center of the entire [Russian] Alabuga enterprise. ... Iran has also likely supplied Russia with Qaem-5 television-guided air-to-ground bombs, which Iran started producing as recently as 2019." Biden still can't quit the mullahs.
So what? "European Union defence ministers meeting in Brussels on Tuesday were unable to reach a consensus on whether Ukraine should be allowed to use the weapons they supply to strike targets on Russian territory." Are we pretending the EU has power over sovereign member states on this issue?
So there was a night blood-red sky in a region in China: "The Dinghai District Meteorological Bureau debunked speculations of the sighting as being of supernatural origin." Interesting response. Well, let's hope people start thinking the Mandate of Heaven was withdrawn from Xi Jinping.
I'm surprised global warming wasn't blamed: "The U.S. military will remove the temporary pier that operated for less than two weeks off the coast of Gaza after suffering damages from rough seas and bad weather, the Pentagon announced Tuesday."
Sure: "Iran keeps making substantial progress in its brisk walk to an atomic weapon, a United Nations report leaked Monday suggests, and what are they going to tell us next—that there’s gambling at Rick’s? Yet the Biden Administration wants to hide this scary truth from the world in this election year." Ah, love.
North Korea released a flock of balloons to float over the DMZ into South Korea: "Witnesses told local media that some of the bags, apart from containing pro-North Korea propaganda, produced an odorous smell and likely contained animal feces." What is their major malfunction?
Sadr is our enemy: "Nationalist Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr demanded that the Iraqi government expel US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski and close the US Embassy in Baghdad in retaliation for US support for Israel." I've warned for twenty years we'd rue the day we let that insurrectionist live.
Meanwhile off the coast of Yemen: "The Houthis damaged a Marshall Islands-flagged merchant vessel in the Red Sea on May 28." Iran is pleased.
Too many of our flag officers suck at being military leaders. Can't disagree with that.
And yet the dread "Arab street" doesn't rise up: "Arab media does not cover the Gaza war in an objective manner, but instead sells its consumers illusions that are far removed from reality and even echoes Hamas' claim that it is defeating the Israeli army." Tip to Instapundit.
China says the South China Sea is its territorial water: "Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Wednesday new rules outlined by China's coast guard that could result in the detention of foreigners in the South China Sea were an escalation and 'worrisome'." If nobody resists, China's claim will be correct.
Waving nukes around: "A senior member of a Russian think tank whose ideas sometimes become government policy has suggested Moscow consider a 'demonstrative' nuclear explosion to cow the West into refusing to allow Ukraine to use its arms against targets inside Russia." But what will it demonstrate?
CRS report: "Russia remains the U.S. rival with the most capable and diverse nuclear forces. Today it is unique in the combination of strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces it fields[.]" Sometimes I wonder if we go along with Russia's Potemkin nuclear force to help Russia deter China.
I don't understand why Palestinians get to be the Queen of the Victim Prom. Syrians killed by Assad, Kurds or Iranians killed by Saddam, Iraqis killed by Iran's mullahs or jihadis, Sudanese killed by Sudanese, and Afghans killed by jihadis--all in large numbers--never inspired moral outrage. Odd, no?
Meanwhile in and around Yemen: "Another U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone went down in Yemen, images online purported to show Wednesday, as Yemen’s Houthi rebels continued attacks on shipping around the Red Sea over the Israel-Hamas war." We shrug at what Iran is doing. It seems odd. It is odds.
Working on restoring the Arsenal of Democracy: "A plant still under construction in Mesquite, Texas, will soon turn out
30,000 artillery shells each month, roughly doubling current U.S.
output." It's flexible on shell size.
Putin has more territorial ambitions: "U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday pledged $135 million in aid to Moldova for energy security and to counter Russian disinformation[.]"
Hmmm: "Israel is examining the M61 Vulcan cannon to counter drones, according to the Israel Defense Forces, with local media reporting the weapon would go atop armored personnel carriers deployed along the northern border." Do we have any of those Cold War vehicles in desert storage somewhere?
Poland buys JASSM-ER cruise missiles: "The ministry said the contract is connected to Poland’s recent purchase of four aerostat-based early warning radar systems from the United States for $1 billion as well as its acquisition of F-35 combat jets, also made by Lockheed." Balloons still go to war. Without feces.
Reuters is concerned that cargo ships avoiding Iran's Houth proxy anti-shipping war in the Red Sea are increasing carbon dioxide emissions when they reroute around southern Africa. Yeah, that's the problem.
Putin often sends out his screeching vodka-addled nuke monkey Medvedev to fling nuclear poo and pound his chest. America speaks softly and flies a big stick: "Two B-52 Stratofortresses from a U.S. Air Force bomber task force flew over the Baltics and Eastern Europe on May 28, U.S. Air Forces in Europe said."
Ukrainian partisan attacks behind Russian lines and inside Russia; plus Ukraine's strategic warfare drone attacks inside Russia. Apparently, Ukraine has rounded up most of the Russian agents inside Ukraine.
China goes big: "During the first week of May this year, China’s first modern aircraft
carrier, Fujian, carried out its initial sea trials. The sea trials and
time in port for needed modifications means that Fujian will not enter
service until 2026." Hey, their carriers will burn, too.
China's new Type 76 amphibious warfare ship is about the size of the America-class ship, but wider. I've long observed that China doesn't need them to invade Taiwan. I think these are primarily intended for peacetime power projection. Or small-scale assaults on islands in the East China Sea or South China Sea.
Russia greatly outnumbers America in short-range nukes: "Russia may take extra steps in the area of nuclear deterrence if the United States deploys intermediate and short-range missiles in Europe and Asia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the state RIA news agency in an interview." Also, really?
Oh, FFS: "The US Navy mishandled oversight of a $22 billion frigate program to replace the much-criticized and more vulnerable Littoral Combat Ship, according to a new congressional audit." We couldn't sustain a long blockade of China with our crappy shipbuilding. What happened to our Navy?
Democrats and foreigners are in a hysterical panic over a Trump presidency. I guess they can cherry pick statements and extrapolate. Or they could look at his record when actually the president. That's what I do.
Democracy dies in kangaroo courts (via Instapundit): "Today, the Hong Kong courts convicted 14 pro-democracy activists in the city’s largest national security trial. The Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation unequivocally condemns these sentences and calls for the immediate release of the 47 ... ."
Some Iraqi militia or terror group fired the cruise missile: "Israeli air defenses shot down a projectile fired at the southern Golan Heights 'from the east,' the Israel Defense Forces said Thursday." States that can't control their territory shouldn't get Westphalian benefits. Declare the Lexington Rule to be our policy.
Without wisdom, you're just a DIK. Okay, the article is outside my lane. But my summary seemed too obvious not to use.
Robot wars: "Video has emerged showing what is claimed to be a Russian First Person-View (FPV) drone attacking a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV). It is the first time we have seen this kind of engagement." Now do aerial drones, as I advocated in Army magazine.
China prefers not to have competition for its huge land-based missile arsenal: "China's defence ministry on Thursday strongly condemned the deployment of a U.S. intermediate range missile system in the northern Philippines during military drills in April, saying it 'brought huge risks of war into the region'."
Maybe: "The head of the U.S. military in Africa vigorously defended the country’s counterterrorism strategy on the continent and vowed to press forward with it despite a wave of criticism and a drift among African nations toward seeking security help from Russia instead." But we're losing right now.
Pity: "The U.S. Navy’s much-touted goal of a regional fleet of 100 unmanned surface vessels in the Middle East fell so short of expectations that the service has scrapped the notion of a numerical target for the program[.]" I anticipated battling Iranian suicide and small attack boats with robots--not our big ships.
Our post-Cold War holiday from history is over and the credit card bill is due: "The U.S. Navy is unable to build enough new ships to replace the fleet it currently has." Meanwhile, China mass produces warships. Is our failure the result of our Ten Year Medium Term Rule?
Where are the nuclear wessels? "A high-ranking US Navy official has warned
that China and Russia have intensified attempts to infiltrate American
military bases, potentially jeopardizing national security." As we know from Fort Hood Cavazos, our bases are soft target weapons-free zones.
Aiding Taiwan: "'The whole idea is for these guys [Taiwan] to … deter, and if deterrence is not an option, to be able to hold their own for a period of time,' a senior American defense official said." Taiwan relies on allies coming to help. China only needs to delay America to defeat Taiwan. But China might beat us.
So a right-wing majority may win the European Union "parliament"? Meh. Winners will just play the game of using money funneled through the EU to their own constituencies. The EU wins. Unless the majority cuts the tentacles of the proto-imperial EU, the EU will erase the prefix and strangle freedom.
If Smart Diplomacy® has anything to say about it, we won't seriously try to defeat an unstable Peking ally on its border: "By any measure, it would be a stretch to say that the United States is currently engaged in a New Cold War proxy war with China and Russia in Myanmar."
China looked at Guadalcanal for lessons: "According to one study, Japan fell into a 'vicious cycle (恶性循环)' after it lost the airfield on Guadalcanal." This reflects my analysis in this 2017 Land Warfare Paper of the synergy of each American service winning their own domain in the campaign.
The Chinese noted this problem of Japan's two-front war: "Between 1942 and 1943, the mainland soaked up 64 percent of the Japanese army while it absorbed 45 percent of the air force." Our war would have been harder if Japan hadn't been tied down on the continent. That's why I want China focused inland.
The mostly peaceful Attacker community waits in fright for the backlash: "A knife-wielding attacker injured several people on the square in Mannheim, located in south-western Germany, before being shot by police. The attacker was wounded."
They replaced an odious government and then became an odious government: "With most of the results now in from South Africa's election, the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC), will have to contend with sharing power after a historic loss of its parliamentary majority." Still has a vote plurality.
If sustaining American power abroad is your main concern for next year, skip to the part on Afghanistan and keep going for a while. It does mix foreign and domestic policy, but it is valuable for the allied panic setting in abroad about potential American policy that disregards actual experience. Tip to Instapundit.
The F-16 and its F-35 replacement. Neither Russia nor China have anything to match. The F-35 is good--but can be hacked because it is networked. The F-16 continues production with the F-16V. After long worry I'm settled down about the F-35 plane. The hacking issue still worries me.
The DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) UUV (Unmanned Underwater Vessel), Manta Ray, can autonomously travel long distances carrying supplies--among other options. Is this really the answer to supplying Marines on forward islands inside China's A2/AD envelope?
Poland in the shadow of Russia decides to dig in.
Russia won't attack now. But mischief might subtract NATO aid to Ukraine. So: "Russia is up to so much mischief around the Baltic Sea that even the things that it ends up not doing cause Western alarm bells to ring." The Baltics are on the list. And the mischief proves Russia doesn't actually fear NATO will attack.
China's reach for the Antarctic.
Russia wants to portray Ukraine as uninterested in "peace" but wants to "present Kyiv with terms of surrender that involve de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains" that include a demilitarized zone on the Ukraine side of the border. Unlike America, Russia understands that peace follows victory.
I should pay more attention to China's Moon advances: "A craft launched from China in May is preparing to land on the far side of the Moon - an unexplored place almost no-one tries to go." The plan is to retrieve rocks and regolith (not "soil" as the article says, but we know what they mean).
Adding to the Houthi tanker war? "Russia is planning to build a logistical support center on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, which it likely intends to use to advance its efforts to secure a Russian naval base in Sudan. Russia’s backing of the SAF aligns Iranian and Russian policies and strategies in the region." Iran tries.
Strategic warfare: "Russian forces conducted a large-scale drone and missile strike mainly targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 31 to June 1."
Strategery: "The current lack of clarity about US restrictions on Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian territory misses an opportunity to deter further Russian offensive efforts across the border into northern Ukraine."
More on Myanmar: "China is playing both sides of the civil war, supporting anti-junta ethnic militias in order to extract ever-greater economic and political concessions from the very regime that it supports militarily." Man, China seriously screws with even the thug regimes it supports. We can't exploit that?
Um, stop panicking, review his first term for lessons of actual policy, and treat him like the lawfully elected leader of your major ally? Just spitballing.
ATACMS goes to Ukraine and its replacement, Deepstrike, gets a test there. The headline says ATACMS production is revived but the body doesn't mention that.
Remote weapons stations reduce casualties for gunners. And a side trip into FPV drones. I assume one day they'll be viewed as the quaint forerunner of the fully robotic weapons.
North Korea sent another wave of garbage balloons across the DMZ: "The balloons, which are carrying 'filth,' flew across the border on Saturday, again, and into multiple provinces, including areas of Seoul, South Korea’s capital." North Korea doesn't like the private South Korean balloons showing freedom.
Hamas will accept the American rescue that will let Hamas rearm and resume efforts to kill Jews at a later date. Or maybe seizing the Philadelphia Corridor, as I noted in an update to this post, is the key.
America, Japan, and South Korea are tightening their security relationship. In addition, Japan and South Korea are also strengthening bilateral security ties without needing an American buffer.
I wonder what "unbearable" response South Korea intends to counter North Korea's aerial garbage attacks.
Russia said it was from negligence: "Fire broke out at an oil refinery in northwestern Russia on Sunday, resulting in deaths and injuries, local officials said." But who knows?
Some weeks are more difficult than others to stay in my lane.
