I had a nice Father's Day that reminded me I'm a lucky dad to have such a great son and great daughter. My degree of difficulty was low.
Fight the way you train: North Korea attacks South Korea with balloons carrying "small plastic items, cigarette butts, scraps of cloth, and wastepaper"; South Korea attacks North Korea with balloons carrying "leaflets, food, medicine, dollar bills and USB sticks loaded with K-pop music videos and TV shows."
A riddle, wrapped in corruption, inside an invasion: "Many Russian economists and bankers believe another economic collapse, similar to what destroyed the Soviet Union, is possible unless the increased defense spending is restrained along with the growing corruption."
But do they work? "The Chinese nuclear arsenal is expanding and quickly, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published this week." Earlier reports of water instead of fuel in missiles and silo hatches that didn't open call this into question.
Define "ships" please: "The Russian Navy will receive about 50 ships of various classes this year, compared to 32 last year, according to the deputy minister of industry and trade." Most are small warships or support vessels--if 50 are delivered in working order.
Good: "Romania’s second Patriot air defense system is now ready for combat following its successful intercept of a target simulating a cruise missile during a live-fire exercise on the banks of the Black Sea."
The move to Guam will begin in December: "The plan to move 4,000 of the approximately 19,000 Marines currently in Okinawa, agreed upon in 2012, is set to be completed by around 2028, according the Congressional Research Service and other sources." Tell me we could move faster during a war.
Huh: "The Pentagon on Friday stood by its decision to conduct a clandestine disinformation campaign in the Philippines in 2020 that aimed to sow doubt about China's COVID-19 vaccine during the height of the global pandemic -- a campaign that was first revealed in a bombshell report by Reuters."
Tanks don't seem obsolete: "Drawing lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine, several Eastern European allies are aiming to buy new tanks after years of neglect in this capability area." But there are a lot more ways they can die. So they should probably be much cheaper.
Good: "NATO defense ministers on Friday approved a plan to provide reliable long-term security aid and military training for Ukraine after delays in Western deliveries of funds, arms and ammunition helped invading Russian forces to seize the initiative on the battlefield."
I take the term as meaning "active right now": "The National Defense Strategy (NDS) calls Russia an 'acute threat[.]' This language presents Russia as a major threat but suggests it will soon go away, perhaps when President Vladimir Putin, the architect of the aggression, no longer leads the country." But yeah.
During the Cold War, all of our carriers had Soviet ships following them with this exact mission their job before getting sunk: "Russian military expert Igor Korotchenko recently suggested on state-owned TV that the Kremlin plans to attack U.S. ships with nuclear weapons." Otherwise this is flinging nuclear poo.
Sure: "Think China can already take Taiwan easily? Think again." I assume nothing but that China can invade. I don't know if enough Chinese ships survive in the Strait, if the Taiwanese fight, if China will endure high casualties, or if America intervenes. And I don't know how you define a Chinese victory.
We're long past the point of "trust but verify": "Airliners manufactured by Boeing and Airbus have components made from titanium that was sold with fake documentation." Fake titanium? We clearly can't trust Chinese manufacturers. Fentanyl isn't the only way they try to kill us. Tip to Instapundit.
"Playful"? This isn't a game! "US aircraft carrier captain playfully counters Houthi's false online claims of hitting his ship[.]" We have rules of social media engagement? When the Houthi issue threats and claims, kill them. That's what they want to do to the carrier. Don't pretend carriers can't sink. The stakes are high.
China continues to aggressively interfere with supply missions to the grounded Sierra Madre by the Philippines in the South China Sea. You'll recall that flashpoint.
Well, "colony" goes too far: "It’s often said that Putin has effectively transformed his country into a vassal of China. That’s true, but Russia’s relationship with its much more powerful neighbor to the south is more accurately termed colonial." Russia does have nukes. Some must work, right? Still, Russia faces danger.
Welp, more panty-flinging over Ukraine's suicide USVs: "'Anyone who thinks this isn’t a game changer for the future of war just has their wishful blinders on,' P.W. Singer of the New America think tank told me." One, ISR isn't cheap. And USVs aren't better than traditional anti-ship missiles and torpedoes.
Land-based air power should be enough for the Mediterranean: "Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy, received on Mar. 30, 2024, its first MQ-4C Triton Unmanned Aerial System, ... the two aircraft, ... have been flying regular missions over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and off the coasts of Libya."
Desperately seeking inexpensive air defense weapons to defeat anti-ship drones.
Using unmanned ground vehicles is "very manpower-intensive."
A surprise? In the Cold War they were good so I assumed that: "American guided missiles and bombs had some unexpected problems with accuracy in Ukraine because of innovative Russian electronic jamming. ... This alerted the Americans to problems they didn’t know they had with their guided weapons."
Suppression of enemy air defenses.
Preaching to the TDR choir on the threat of the EU to America-led NATO: "The EU could be about to cripple Nato[.]" I've worried more about duplicating NATO military structures than defense industry. But I still worry about that form of "strategic autonomy" the EU wants.
A defense of Marine changes: "The Marine Corps is on the right track with FD. It is rapidly evolving its ability to operate within the range of enemy weapons and to sustain its capability to engage enemy forces at close and extended ranges." Call me skeptical. But why gut all the Marines for changes on one front?
Reject the notion we've provoked Russian and Chinese hostility and aggression: "In truth, the growth in their hostility has more to do with our excessive tolerance of their proliferating infractions against civilized norms than our interference with their rightful claims." We can't hide from threats at home.
South Korea would like nuclear-powered attack submarines. Makes sense.
I will not listen to that liar's thoughts on a foreign policy based on the "world as it is."
Interesting that Vietnam is getting away with eroding China's territorial claims in the South China Sea even as China goes hammer and tong at the Philippines with its coast guard and naval militia. Mind you, America would not recognize territory claims based on reclaimed land features by Vietnam or China.
Edging toward war: "Chinese forces seized two Philippine rubber boats that were delivering food and other supplies to a military outpost in a disputed South China Sea shoal in a tense confrontation in which some Filipino navy personnel were injured, Philippine security officials said Tuesday."
It's possible Japan might go to war with China over Taiwan even if America doesn't jump in. Although if America intervenes Japan will certainly help.
Renewed military aid again reaching Ukraine's troops is boosting troop morale. Will that also boost enlistment?
Warnings are only clear after an actual attack: "Israeli military intelligence sounded clear warnings regarding a pending
attack more than two weeks before Hamas launched its attack from the
Gaza Strip on October 7 last year[.]" I call BS. Before attacks, warnings are murky. Ask us about Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
Sure: "The National Guard’s ongoing security mission on the southern U.S. border provides 'no military training value' to the troops stationed there[.]" But it has national security value. And if civilian agencies don't do their border security mission, somebody must.
The cheap drones will get more expensive in this EW and ECM battle: "As drones play an increasingly prominent role in the war, both sides are pitched in a constantly evolving battle to down enemy craft and keep their own in the sky."
To be fair, he was a whipped moron: "A court in Russia’s far eastern city of Vladivostok on Wednesday sentenced an American soldier arrested earlier this year to three years and nine months in prison on charges of stealing and threats of murder, Russian news reports said." But that's not a crime.
Oh FFS: M-SHORAD can't fire its Hellfire missiles because the "Hellfire was not designed to be driven around in a ground vehicle[.]"
Good: "India and the United States on Monday pledged to boost defense and technology cooperation and remove long-standing barriers to bilateral strategic trade, following a meeting between the national security advisers of both countries."
American special forces ... from the sea.
Ukraine likes their Bradly Fighting Vehicles.
Basically a missile technology-for-ammunition deal: "The deal could expand transfers of military technology to Pyongyang in exchange for supplies of munitions that Moscow’s military badly needs for its war in Ukraine." Maybe Ukraine would like some Western missile technology, eh?
The next war? "Israel warned Hezbollah on Tuesday of the prospect of 'all-out war' after the Lebanese militant group published a 9-minute video, purportedly taken by a drone, showing Israeli military and civilian locations in several Israeli cities." "All-out" would mean rapidly seizing Baalbek.
While we play games, Iran and their Houthi proxy wage war: "A bulk carrier sank days after an attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels believed to have killed one mariner on board, authorities said early Wednesday, the second ship sunk in the rebels' campaign."
Is Canada our "least helpful ally"? Well, there military is hollow. And I have zero respect for their prime minister. But they have my lingering respect for fighting and dying alongside our troops in Afghanistan. They were no mere war spectators. But lately they've sucked.
No Russians allowed: "Some 9,000 troops from 20 NATO countries have been participating this month in military exercises in the Baltic Sea region, which has become strategically sensitive following Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
China isn't subtle: "A Chinese amphibious warship is operating near a disputed South China Sea feature that has been the site of a standoff between Chinese and Philippine Coast Guards, USNI News has learned."
Are we in a post-heroic era when the willingness to sacrifice young men to fight in wars will prevent wars? Nice theory, but Russia--which supposedly falls into that category (and I once thought so)--has seemingly lost more than 100,000 dead soldiers so far with no end in sight.
Oh, urgent action is being taken there: "Urgent action must be taken in the Red Sea to stop attacks on merchant shipping by Yemen's Houthis, leading industry groups said on Wednesday, after the sinking of a second ship." But by Iran and the Houthi--not the West.
As Russia embraces North Korea, is Russia angling to buy North Korean "volunteers" to fight Ukraine? North Korea would get money, food, and technology--plus kill off potentially rebellious young men in a far off war.
I've noted that China's military has problems. It does. But I don't assume it means everything is crap. Russia is inflicting a lot of damage with crap. And China's problems undermine the fierce urgency of now claims that America must abandon Europe to win in Asia.
Huh: "Russia has moved the vast majority of its ground forces previously stationed near Finland to the war in Ukraine[.]" Contrary to Russian hyper-ventilating about the NATO threat, Russia clearly doesn't fear a NATO invasion. To be fair, Russia moans and wails to conceal their appeasement of China.
Russia abuses its Ukrainian prisoners of war. This is concentration camp level of criminal. It should encourage Ukrainian soldiers not to surrender. Ukraine should continue to treat Russian prisoners well--and advertise it--because it is the right thing to do and to encourage Russian troops to surrender.
Restoring the two-war standard. One of my first publications criticized the elimination of the two-war standard in favor of a "nearly simultaneous" two smaller wars standard.
Weapons, logistics, and intelligence/early warning: "One rarely mentioned aspect of the Ukraine War is the frequent involvement of civilians and civilian groups in supporting the war effort." I've noted this feature for a long time.
Not part of Russia: "When the Russians invaded in 2022, many officers and soldiers were surprised that Ukrainians were no longer culturally related to Russia but had become more like western Europeans."
Doha doomed Afghanistan because it "empowered and legitimised the Taliban" and "the US seemed to be treating Afghanistan as if it was not a sovereign nation[.]" Yeah. I rejected peace with the Taliban and worried about undermining the government. But the buck stopped at Biden, who made it worse.
No! Way! "A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal[.]" This may be more urgently worrisome.
The war on terror continues: "“On June 16, US Central Command conducted an airstrike in Syria, killing Usamah Jamal Muhammad Ibrahim al-Janabi, a senior ISIS official and facilitator,” the post from US Central Command said."
More BS advocating a dormant NATO--new and improved with a "grand bargain" with Russia! That's no ordinary deal! it's grand! What is wrong with some conservatives? Just accept the W now that Democrats want to stop Russia.
China's demographics is a long-term problem around mid-century. Probably correct. Advanced Western countries aren't collapsing despite similar long-term problems. But China isn't an advanced country.
Macron may cause the collapse of the European Union? Be still my heart. Oh the irony.
So we have some stranded astronauts in orbit.
What is China's major malfunction? "Footage released by the Philippine military on Thursday showed Chinese coast guard officers brandishing an axe and other bladed or pointed tools at the Filipino soldiers and slashing their rubber boat, in what Manila called 'a brazen act of aggression.'"
Strategery: "Major weapons exporter South Korea will 'reconsider' a longstanding policy that bars it from supplying arms directly to Ukraine, a presidential official said Thursday, after North Korea and Russia signed a defense deal." One more reason for Russians to string Putin up on a lamp post.
The war on Islamist terror is far from over: "A Muslim mob in northwestern Pakistan on Thursday broke into a police station, snatched a man who was held there and then lynched him over allegations that he had desecrated Islam's holy book, the Quran." That kind of hate generates terrorists.
From the "Well, Duh" files we have this: "US officials have serious concerns that in the event of a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the north — including the much-vaunted Iron Dome air defense system[.]" Go full-blown.
Effectively sunk for five years: "The midlife overhaul and refueling for aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74) will now take about five and a half years to complete – an extension of almost 14 months[.]" Thank God it doesn't have battle damage!
Huh: "China decided to forego a beach landing and attempt an air assault on the island’s port and airfield facilities, the seizure of which would allow for rapid arrival of follow-on troops and logistical supplies to facilitate a successful occupation." That's been my view. His scenario sounds like my 2005 scenario.
Hmmm: "A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to[.]" Iran would want nuclear missiles prior to getting that capability, no?
Is this based on a fleeting window before counter-measures are developed: "Taiwan won approval from main benefactor the U.S. to buy hundreds of loitering munitions, as part of a 'porcupine strategy' to use such attritable weapons to help defend the country from a potential Chinese military invasion." Meh.
It's a victory to have a nuclear crisis over one weapon: "A unique team of Army soldiers who train to defuse nuclear emergencies has been training alongside the elite combat units that might one day have to take them into — and back out of — a doomsday-like scenario."
I think the social media problems for resuming a military draft are over-stated.
Here we go: "The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee issued a statement suggesting a consensus among Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to resume attacks targeting US forces. " Will we please fight--and win--Phase IX of the Iraq War?
Another substitute for victory. Tip to Instapundit.
AI fighter pilots: "The AI is making "dramatic" progress as it learns from flight and mission data, an Air Force officer said." The Air Force must pursue this because others will. But human pilot training has been an advantage. Will our programmers provide the same edge over enemy programmers?
Oh? "According to the measures that matter, Hamas is stronger today than it was on October 7." Some people really contort themselves to assert fighting back against monsters makes them stronger. We killed a lot of Germans and wrecked a lot of Germany. That did not make Nazism stronger. Kill jihadis.
Efforts to help Ukrainian air defense are getting serious: "NATO member Romania’s top defense body said Thursday that the country will donate a Patriot missile system to neighboring Ukraine[.]"
Is China posturing to satisfy Russia? "Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week reiterated the U.S. is
committed to backing the Philippines as the Pacific nation continues to
clash with Chinese boats in the South China Sea, spurring fears that
tensions will escalate into a wider conflict." The clash in the conflict.
American special forces are contracting in size and shifting back to pre-9/11 jobs of training and working with allied military forces to fight common enemies. Direct action is limited to SEAL Team 6 and Delta Force, as many targets can now be identified by special forces recon and killed with drone strikes.
A sign of war worries or a tactic to undermine drafting men? I suppose there's the healing power of "and." Tip to Instapundit.
Is this posturing by both sides or are we sliding toward a war between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon? We'll see if Israel is serious if it goes to war.
But what if China's large manufacturing advantage means they send tens of thousands of such drones to clear the way? What about the original unmanned naval drones? The stationary and cheap sea mine seeded in the tens of thousands? Not flashy, I know. But it's an idea so crazy it might just work!
Huh: "Morosovsk Airfield in Russia, about 150 miles from the front lines, was hit by a Ukrainian attack. It’s claimed that the operation was carried out via a mass drone attack." I'd rather send scores of suicide drones to attack Russian airfields than use F-16s.
Well, yes: " U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink on Saturday said the situation in the South China Sea is deeply concerning, and said China's recent actions in the disputed waterway were 'deeply destabilising'." I'm actually pleased when a diplomat sees the obvious.
Good: "India and Bangladesh on Saturday moved to bolster their defense relationship and signed agreements for expanding cooperation in maritime security, ocean economy, space, and telecommunication sectors[.]" don't cede the field to China.
Losses: Russia has lost 562 military aircraft, with 415 of them destroyed and 147 captured on the ground by Ukrainian troops early in the war. In addition Russia has lost over 300 helicopters[.]" Russian aircraft rarely fly over Ukrainian territory now.
The Pentagon was sued for documents related to "the U.S. Military Academy’s decision to delete its famous motto 'Duty, Honor, Country' from its mission statement." To be fair, when you believe there are many substitutes for victory, who needs that around? Tip to Instapundit.
I think the author is way too pessimistic thinking "World War III" is inevitable. It would be assuming too much to say the Long Peace since 1945 means a world war is impossible. But it's a leap to argue that the long gap in war between nuclear powers is about to end. And if it ends, don't assume it involves the West.
Of course they do: "Hezbollah is storing huge quantities of Iranian weapons, missiles, and explosives in Beirut’s main civilian airport, according to airport whistleblowers." It's a war crime to use human shields.
If true, this is a war crime: "The Israel Defense Forces strapped a wounded Palestinian man to a jeep during a raid." But it was one raid. The entire war strategy of Hamas is using Gazans as human shields. I wonder who will be condemned by the UN Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories?
