Is it really strategic wisdom to refrain from defeating a foe trying to defeat us?
I understand the desire for caution when dealing with China. They're powerful. But refusing to try to defeat the Chinese Communist Party seems kind of retreat-ish:
The U.S. faces strategic challenges with China, which aims to reshape the international order. The Biden administration's approach involves managing competition rather than seeking outright victory or confrontation. While some advocate for a more aggressive stance, aiming to defeat the Chinese Communist Party, such a strategy could backfire, strengthening the CCP and increasing conflict risks. The preferred strategy is maintaining U.S. dominance through enhanced focus on the Indo-Pacific, innovation, and alliances, while remaining open to engagement with China.
"Managing" China with some amorphous "engagement" gives the CCP little reason to restrain their aggressive stance to reshape the international order or to engage with America or our allies and friends peacefully. Why wouldn't China push until stopped?
And how do we keep allies on the line if they are told to stand guard ... forever?
It's not like I think we should recklessly pursue war. I'm not even in favor of jamming military assets into bases close to China, which I think tempts more than deters China.
And while China is our biggest threat, it isn't our only threat. My preferred strategy is to get the Chinese pointed inland rather than out to sea where our major allies are located:
Sure, if we must fight I'd rather win, but just going to war is going to cost us in lives and money.
One can say that we hope that by becoming strong enough we deter the Chinese but this is still only second best. A deterred China will always be on the verge of attacking, just waiting for the moment when we cannot stop them for one reason or another and so cannot deter them for even a short window of opportunity.
No, defeating China makes the best of the worst case and deterring China makes the best of the second worst case. We need to shovel the Snow back north. We need to play the Great Game in Asia to achieve our best case--a China pointed away from the south--Taiwan and the United States and our other allies--and pointed toward the north and the interior of Asia.
Distract, deter, defeat--in that order of preference.
And America should be prepared to help allies under threat by using the Army for its core competency, as I explored in Military Review.
But the CCP has banked its legitimacy on economic growth that is running out. And you have to admit that defeating the CCP has a big payoff. Why shouldn't we aspire to repeating the Cold War victory over the USSR that fractured it and sent it reeling from its threat to the heart of democratic Western Europe?
Sigh. Let the Wookie win, eh?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
