Unless Russia is serious about going on the offensive in the Kharkiv region, Russia has thrown away their sanctuary inside Russia across the border.
Russia has been clawing at Ukrainian defenses and slowly taking ground, even if the price in lives and weapons is high. Russia attacked into the Kharkiv region in an apparent effort to stretch Ukraine's defenders with even more of these attacks. The Russians said they wanted a buffer zone to protect Russian territory. Some speculated it was just the opening salvo of a major offensive once Russia massed enough forces.
Ten days ago the White House national security spokesman assessed Russia's Kharkiv attack:
“They have been able to thwart Russian advances, particularly around Kharkiv,” Kirby said. “The Russians really have kind of stalled out up there [and] … their advance on Kharkiv is all but over because they ran into the first line of defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and basically stopped, if not pulled back, some units.”
The advance stalled after a rapid but shallow advance against weak Ukrainian defenders. Ukraine was hampered in fighting back because American weapons couldn't be used against military targets inside Russia. Those restrictions were largely lifted--except for ATACMS--along with other allied restrictions.
So instead of needing few troops to protect their border against a nonexistent Ukrainian invasion threat, Russia has their troops pushed forward into a shooting gallery inside Ukraine with rear areas now also subject to attack.
And with more ammunition from the re-opened American supply line, Ukraine no longer has to conserve ammunition for only the largest ongoing attacks on their defensive lines. Now, ammunition can be used to degrade and disrupt the Russian attacks before they get going:
Ukraine fired missiles and artillery at 15 areas where Russia troops were concentrated on June 14 as Russia tried to use its advantage in manpower, equipment, and air support to seize territory in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv's General Staff said.
So Ukraine can afford to hit those sanctuaries where once they had to watch troops massing until the Russians in them actually attacked.
Bravo, Putin. Bravo.
UPDATE (Monday): Ukraine is degrading Russia's firepower on this front:
An officer fighting to defend the strip of land Ukraine has occupied on the left bank of the Dnipro River said that US aid has helped reduce the number of successful Russian glide bomb attacks on his squad's position.
Speaking to The Times of London, Major Serhiy Pedenko, the deputy commander of 503 Battalion of Ukraine's 38th Marine Brigade, said that the number of glide bombs hitting their position on the banks of the river had fallen from 80 a day to four.
Interesting. Pushing Russian power back from the river is key for an advance across it one day.
UPDATE (Wednesday): People are complaining that the recent peace conference regarding the Winter War of 2022 failed to provide that precious "plan" such people are so fixated on:
Ukraine summit fails to provide coherent path to peace[.]
Such complaints about a lack of a plan bolster the aggressor, Russia, whose plan is to endure until the West chooses to lose the war.
You want a coherent path to peace? I've got one. To such people I respond with this "plan" for when the future looks bleak:
You ask, what is our policy? I can say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to wage war against a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed in the dark, lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy. You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word: It is victory, victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.
That should be our policy. If Ukrainians decide something less is all they can achieve because the cost is too high, that's up to them. And God help them if they choose that. But lack of Western help should not be the reason Ukraine is compelled to make that decision.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
