When I see a lighted mass drone show, I get a shiver. Because I see a future show that spells out "Allahu Akhbar" before the drones scatter and plunge to the ground where they explode.
Well, one big difference is that we were liberating a friendly city--not taking an enemy city: "Brown and other top officials have cited American operations in places like Mosul, where they believe the United States held itself to a higher standard than Israel is using in Gaza, as they voice frustration with Israel."
Even if Ukraine was getting a couple wings of F-16s right of the bat, they aren't wonder weapons. So don't get your hopes up. Ukraine will compel Russia to be a bit more cautious in using aircraft. And Ukraine will have occasional offensive opportunities. But not a silver bullet.
Sad: "Once more, the Russian GLONASS is in trouble. The problem is a familiar one, too many GLONASS satellites are ending their service lives, usually seven years, and Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, does not have the money to replace all of the GLONASS satellites." But we need good INS.
China's GPS: "China has a long-range plan for Beidou that includes adding new features and somehow achieving market dominance by 2040. China likes to announce long range goals like this, then quietly forget about it when the promised future never arrives." But experts wrongly swoon over their planning.
New car smell stinks: "Chinese military corruption is so bad that China is presently incapable of invading Taiwan. President Xi made the appalling discovery last year that China’s navy and air force were so bereft of spare parts as to be mission incapable, and particularly so for several months of constant combat."
Keep out: "The Eastern Shield will cover Poland's border with Belarus and its border with Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast (on the Baltic Sea)." It's a modern wall to stop weaponized migrants and a quick "take and talk" Russian offensive. Good. As long as it doesn't hinder a NATO invasion of Kaliningrad.
If the traditional parties addressed voter worries, the voters wouldn't have sought alternatives: "Far-right parties rattled the traditional powers in the European Union and made major gains in parliamentary elections Sunday, dealing an especially humiliating defeat to ... Macron." Macron? LOL.
Things in Iran should mysteriously blow up: "Yemen's Houthi damaged two commercial vessels in missile attacks in the Gulf of Aden in the last 24 hours as part of the militia group's ongoing campaign against international ocean shipping, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Sunday."
Huh: "[A half dozen Israeli reservists say] Biden’s diplomacy is actually dragging out the Gaza war he is pressing Israel to bring to an end. By restraining Israel, they said, Biden is preventing the Jewish state from defeating or deterring its genocidal enemies." I called that one.
Yikes: "US and Canadian officials are investigating after a 689-foot ship collided with an underwater object and began taking on water in Lake Superior, the US Coast Guard says."
The U.S. remains on a "break" in its relationship with Turkey and is used to it. I concur. Actively "repairing" relations with Turkey under Erdogan means offering concessions to his Islamist-leaning rule and all that flows from it. Let's wait for the Turks to give us reason to restore our relationship.
Is Islamist terrorism "noise" building up to to major attacks in the West?
Is American naval power on a permanent downward slide? Well, turning that around has a major problem. Losing naval superiority would be very bad for America.
I don't like making a big deal of European Union elections. Talking about how important the results are falls into the EU plan of making the EU important. A more powerful EU with more power for the right will eventually be an all-powerful EU under the left. The proto-imperial EU never wastes a crisis.
Flash Point: South China Sea: "The June 1–June 10 war-fighting exercise began with an air assault on mock enemy forces to allow the deployment of U.S. and Filipino soldiers who secured an area, which served as a staging ground before a major offensive."
Myanmar: "Many of the army generals were surprised at how suddenly and quickly the troops in the north lost their will to fight and either deserted or joined the rebels. These attitudes spread quickly." I hope this will happen to Russia's army. And before our aid resumed, some small worry it could happen to Ukraine's.
Goodlife: "The island nation of Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean has, for Russia, been useful as a wretched hive of scum and villainy where local politicians and businesses, especially banks, make a lot of money by allowing Russia to do whatever it wants." Cyprus backs Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Oh, I heard the French Mirage-2000 planes going to Ukraine will be able to fire Scalp cruise missiles. That's a good capability for the small number. How long will it take to get them in operation?
A different kind of human wave assault: "Finnish authorities fear the peace and quiet of places like Hoilola could soon be shattered by the arrival of large numbers of asylum seekers - part of what Helsinki sees as a 'hybrid war' being waged by Russia against the West."
No: "American aircraft carriers persevered over the challenge of Imperial Japan’s Kamikaze attacks, Soviet bomber long-range anti-ship cruise missiles, and will likely again over China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles." Our carriers never faced Soviet or Chinese threats. Our one success is 80 years old. This is key.
Defeating a PLA invasion of Taiwan "hinges on quickly building and deploying thousands of new drones that would swarm the Taiwan Strait and keep China’s military busy until more help can arrive, according to the top U.S. military official in the Pacific." Note that drones are to buy time--not be the silver bullet.
Is America losing the Arab world over Gaza? I have my doubts. After 8 months the "street" is less noisy than our college campuses. Given time after major operations end, sympathy will wane. If I'm wrong what are we to do? "Free" Palestine from the river to the sea? Is gaining genocidal "friends" really our goal?
Getting the theory right on what defeating China in a war over Taiwan means. Lots of thoughts and theories. But no mention of driving the invaders into the sea, as I explored in Military Review.
Coping with the birth rate collapse. I've long suspected Europe will seek a solution in clones; Asia in robots; and America in immigration. With some overlap, so no solution is pure. Maybe medical science will extend productive life significantly, buying time. Or maybe birth rates will recover.
Ukraine seems to have damaged one of Russia's few Su-57, where it and other aircraft almost always "sit in the open without any sort of shelter, let alone hardened ones." Thank God we wouldn't be penny wise and pound foolish like that with our planes out in the western Pacific, right? Tip to Instapundit.
Oh, please: "Why is President Biden still treating Iran as if it were our friend or ally? His actions — such as honoring Ebrahim Raisi, ... lobbying [Europeans] not to censure Iran at the [IAEA], and ignoring Iran’s steady march to nuclear weapons — make no sense." Of course it makes sense. Via Instapundit.
Good: "The U.S. has added three more companies to a list that bars imports from firms allegedly involved with Uyghur forced labor in China, according to a U.S. government notice posted online on Tuesday."
I call BS on this one: "If the alliance is to reach its century mark, the transatlantic partners must shift much of the responsibility of continental security to Europeans themselves. " Shifting NATO to Europe doesn't "save" NATO--it just gives Europe to the EU, even if it takes 25 years.
Being fourth on our to-do list saves them: "Around 20 North Korean troops briefly crossed into the southern portion of the Demilitarized Zone over the weekend, prompting South Korean forces to warn the intruders by firing shots and using loudspeakers[.]" But if South Korea and Japan make their own list ...
It's been closed for more than two months: "The Port of Baltimore’s shipping channel, in its entirety, is open for business as of Monday evening." Imagine our problems during war with multiple ports shut down for months. We'd go faster during a war, right?
Good: "The United States will send Ukraine another Patriot missile system[.]" I don't know what "system" means. A single launcher? A battery? I suspect the latter, but I don't know.
Russian manpower shortages. I'm not sure that the description of soldier unrest is significant. Is it enough to affect units? And if Ukraine can't attack on a large scale to exploit shaken units, it might not matter unless unrest escalates to army-level collapse.
FFS, we can even ef up a proven design from abroad: "[A GAO report] into the failings of the US Navy’s Constellation-class frigate programme, detailing incomplete designs and the build of the first-in-class being 'at a standstill', indicate concerning similarities with the ill-fated Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)."
Huh: "Six Russian nationals suspected to have terror ties to ISIS have been arrested in a coordinated sting operation spanning Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia, The Post can exclusively reveal." Our mythical over-the-horizon capabilities didn't stop them "over there." A "Russian" named "Mohammad."
Chutzpah with Chinese characters: "China's defence ministry on Tuesday warned the Netherlands to restrain actions of its naval and air forces after the Netherlands' defence ministry said Chinese fighter jets approached a Dutch ship unsafely in the East China Sea.
Accepting defeat: "Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Wednesday that a peace treaty with Azerbaijan was close to completion but that his country would not accept Baku's demands that it change its constitution."
Welcome wagon: "The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and aircraft to track a Russian naval flotilla after the Russian vessels sailed less than 30 miles off South Florida’s coast on Tuesday[.]" But we won't maneuver unsafely around them.
Yeah: "The recent arrest of Admiral Robert Burke on corruption charges is an indication of the decline in the quality and integrity of our general and flag officers (GFOs) ... Too many reached that rank by being skilled bureaucrats, not making enemies, and keeping superiors happy." We have a problem.
The European so-called Parliament is "susceptible to the pressure of lobbyists and well-organised vested interests. As a result, even the most well-meaning politicians, once they get to Brussels, tend to get sucked into its bubble." Like I've said, the EU wins just by playing their rigged game. Populists will be absorbed.
Chest-beating Putin's flinging of nuclear poo has predictable consequences: " In a rare reference to the Western nuclear arsenal, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday highlighted the alliance's efforts to adapt its capabilities to current security threats, taking note of Russia latest nuclear rhetoric and drills."
Germany prepares for a larger and longer war by getting more recruits: "'The new model includes basic military service of six months with an option for additional voluntary military service of up to an additional 17 months,' the document said."
The U.S. widened sanctions against Russia: "Wednesday’s package targeted Chinese companies which help Russia pursue its war in Ukraine and raised the stakes for foreign financial institutions which work with sanctioned Russian entities." Move and counter-move.
Speed bump removed: "NATO defense ministers gathered Thursday hoping to agree on a new plan to provide long-term security assistance and military training to Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion, after Hungary promised not to veto the proposal as long as it’s not forced to take part."
Start now, the job is big and Western planes will arrive slowly: "Ukrainian forces may be conducting an effort aimed at degrading Russian air defenses, which, if successful, could enable Ukraine to more effectively leverage manned fixed-wing airpower in the long run."
As we watch the Houthi interdict Red Sea shipping with Iranian weapons and help (via Instapundit), remember that this has long been an objective of mullah-run Iran.
Israel-approved: "Israel has ordered another 25 F-35 fighters, which will give Israel three F-35I squadrons. ... The radars and electronic countermeasures provide the pilot with an integrated view of the surrounding air space. This degree of situational awareness gives the pilot an enormous advantage in combat[.]"
Russian soldiers go to Ukraine to die for Putin. Western intelligence agencies should be all over social media available to Russians praising each and every Russian soldier that dies in Ukraine as a hero lifting the glory of Putin.
We'll soon find out if it works: "Russia has moved one of its S-500 air defense systems, the most advanced it has, to the occupied Crimean Peninsula to protect the Kerch Bridge, Ukraine’s spy boss said Wednesday."
That makes more sense: "A ship that took on water in Lake Superior likely had a stress fracture in its hull, the U.S. Coast Guard said Tuesday, backing off an initial report that the freighter had struck something below the surface last weekend."
Thanks Russia, but you don't have to go to all this effort. We're willing to sink your ships off your coast: "The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and aircraft to track a Russian naval flotilla after the Russian vessels sailed less than 30 miles off South Florida’s coast on Tuesday" We're thoughtful that way.
The flow continues: "A new wave of Euro-Atlantic armaments are due to flow into the Ukraine’s Armed Forces inventory in the coming weeks and months."
Not everything sucks in Navy shipbuilding. Well, La De-frickin' Da. I'm not soothed. From "Don't give up the ship. Fight her 'til she sinks." to "Don't commission the ship. Change her 'til she's too expensive."
Tar. Feathers: "Aside from a few forward locales, the United States does not invest in robust shelters for its combat aircraft, which is increasingly looking like a stark vulnerability." Are planes are hard to shoot down. It's far easier to see them--and destroy them--on the ground.
And yet when jihadi terrorists kill us at home in large numbers, we'll act all surprised and establish a commission to tell us how the terrorists got into America. We'll probably be told that our border is super secure because only 0.0002% of all the illegals who entered America in the last 3+ years were terrorists.
Canada blames "climate change," but whatever: "Canada looks on track to meet NATO’s military spending guideline by the end of the decade, ... , notably by boosting investment in the Arctic near its shared border with Russia as the region warms quickly because of climate change."
Happy 249th birthday, U.S. Army! "On June 14, 1775, 249 years ago, the Second Continental Congress founded a united army to bring the 13 colonies together in the fight for independence from Great Britain. The U.S. Army was officially born." I know what present I want!
Rather than deep strike missions as I guessed, the French-madeMirage-2000 might specialize in air defense both protecting Ukraine's new Swedish AWACS and exploiting their information.
Spread out the responsibility: "The U.S. and its allies will agree this week to a plan to put NATO in charge of efforts to arm and train the Ukrainian military, marking a shift away from what so far has been an American-led endeavor."
The length of time it is taking to get F-16s in Ukrainian hands is near-criminal. We could have accelerated this process.
Oh: "[The] Bharatiya Janata Party, is now in decline, reinforcing the theory that the fifth-largest economy in the world is far too diverse for any single political force to dominate. India will now be bogged down by internal political and economic issues that will limit its ability to project geopolitical influence."
The Marines send their replacement for the AAV7 out to exercise: "The U.S. Marine Corps used their new ACV (Amphibious Combat Vehicle) in an overseas training operation in the Philippines."
Blowback: "Russian threats against NATO have forced NATO to become more united and ready for war. ... [The collapse of the USSR] led many nations to ... reduce their military spending and demobilize many of their troops. The Russian invasion of Ukraine changed all that ... " Strategery.
I'm skeptical: "NATO countries have 'comfortably exceeded' a target of placing 300,000
troops on high-readiness as the alliance grapples with the threat from Russia, a senior alliance official said Thursday." How many are combat brigades? Past commitments relied on sailors for the big number.
Demonizing Saudi Arabia is leaving a mark: "The expiration of the petrodollar agreement represents a significant shift in global power dynamics. ... the global financial order is entering a new era. The U.S. dollar’s dominance is no longer guaranteed." Shocking. This seems like a big deal. Tip to Instapundit.
Resisting Russia risks nuclear war? So Russia might nuke us for helping Ukraine fight Russia's unjustified invasion? I say if Russia is willing to start a nuclear war over that, what makes anyone think we could deter Russia from using nukes if Putin invades and directly fights NATO next? Let the Wookie win ...
Even with a legal ruling on Manila's side, Peking has the PLA: "The Philippines has asked a United Nations body to formally recognize
the extent of its undersea continental seabed in the South China Sea,
where it would have the exclusive right to exploit resources[.]"
Potemkin Putin bravado: "[Ukraine's] foreign ministry said: 'It is absurd for Putin, who planned, prepared and executed, together with his accomplices, the largest armed aggression in Europe since World War Two, to present himself as a peacemaker.'" Russia's big demands lead me to think they are weakening.
Is Germany the sick man of Europe? "It is now little more than a 'developing country'. Its stock market is a 'junk shop' selling old tat. And its reputation as a place to do business has 'never been so bad’.'" I used to soothe myself that politicians need a long time to wreck a country. Tip to Instapundit.
NATO needs a more powerful Europe? Hard pass. NATO needs more powerful European states. Don't confuse unified political Europe with Geographic Europe of sovereign states. A more powerful political Europe will destroy NATO--which is bad for America and Europeans.
Jihadis, Wagner, and decline at the corner of No and Where.
In a dangerous world, replacing our aging Minutman III ICBMS is vital.
The idea that everything is going according to Hamas' plan is nonsense. Nobody plans to get their asses kicked. Hamas hoped to crush Israel by successfully brutalizing Israelis and inspiring the world to join them in destroying Israel. There's a history of Westerners saying fighting jihadis is counterproductive.
Asian countries may have to adopt the advice to "never start a land war in Asia."
Our new federal holiday, Juneteenth, is on June 19th. It was politically motivated. But Republicans should embrace it. Free, Black, Union soldiers under a Republican president marched into Texas to inform Black slaves that they were free citizens because their Confederate Democrat masters were defeated? No-brainer.
With Ukraine there with its friends, the main value of the recent peace summit in Switzerland is to reject Putin's false claim that Russia--the invader!--is the side interested in peace while Ukraine stands in the way.
People claimed the Iraq War was "breaking" the U.S. Army when it was enduring 1,000 KIA in a calendar year? Yet Russia's army in this war could be losing that many soldiers every week--for over two years now--and is doing just fine? How is that army not fragile? Yet how would we know?
Good grief, they weren't the first things we attacked? "CENTCOM said the US military destroyed seven radars in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, which had allowed 'Houthis to target maritime vessels and endanger commercial shipping.'" We spend too much time sending messages rather than destruction.
Sad statistics: "Mohanad el-Balal is one of many Sudanese civilians doing everything they can to ward off a devastating famine – and there is one man whose photograph he will never forget." But until they are crowned Queen of the Victim Prom, they'll get no pier, no outrage, and no help for their tragedy.
Given the state of the sainted international community, I'm shocked it's that many: "Nearly 80 countries called Sunday for the 'territorial integrity' of Ukraine to be the basis for any peace agreement to end Russia’s two-year war[.]" Although Ukrainians have to decide to suffer to achieve that goal.
