Is Iran's Long Drive for Nuclear Weapons Finally Here?

Will Iran get nuclear weapons in Obama's third term of office? Mission accomplished!

The Biden administration is pressuring allies not to confront Iran on their dash to nuclear weapons:

But what is it that the U.S. fears? That Iran unbound could arm Hamas and Hezbollah to launch genocidal attacks on Israel, or could launch its first-ever direct missile strike against that American ally? That Tehran could arm the Houthi fighters in Yemen as they disrupt global shipping through the Red Sea? Or that the mullahs could send missiles and drones to Russia for use in Ukraine? Or give Shiite militias the green light to attack U.S. troops in Syria, Iraq and Jordan?

I'd say that this is another example of the "Let the Wookie win" school of dealing with our enemies.

But it is much simpler than that twisted view of foreign policy. The Biden administration loooves mullah-run Iran. The mullahs don't love America back--famously wishing death to the "Great Satan" for many decades now. But that's no obstacle to courting the mullahs and expecting peace. 

How else do you explain this? 

The United States expresses its official condolences for the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and other members of their delegation in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran.

We expressed condolences for the death of a murderous thug whose record is exceptional even for a regime of murderous thugs in religious garb. That's true devotion.

Recall the brilliance of their policy they once boasted about in those innocent days of August 2023:

The Biden administration is maneuvering to pretend it has forcefully compelled Iran to back down from regional mayhem and agree to a nuclear deal that we will insist keeps Iran from going nuclear. In reality it will be worse than the original.

And now Iran helps Hamas and Hezbollah wage war on Israel; helps the Houthi wage war on international trade; helps its Iraqi and Syrian pawns wage war on American troops in the Middle East; helps Russia wage war on Ukraine; and still works with North Korea on nuclear missile technology.

Bravo.

The most dangerous aspect of our renewed Smart Diplomacy® is our policy toward Iran's nuclear ambition:

Sadly, the basis of the original deal seemed doomed to be repeated:

Well of course a deal is possible! Duh. All Iran has to do is pretend to end their drive for nuclear weapons and all we have to do is pretend to believe Iran. Simple, no?

Unfortunately, the original deal may have worked all too well. By giving up to 15 years of shielding Iran from attack, it enabled Iranian cheating by giving Iran benefits up front and encouraging Western caving in to Iranian threats to leave the deal if called on their cheating. The incentives to ignore cheating were clear. 

And the deal actually helped Iran with basic nuclear technology, as I noted when I first looked at the nuclear deal. God help us, but Obama expected a nuclear-armed, mullah-run Iran to become a responsible regional power. It's a miracle Iran doesn't have nukes yet. They don't have nukes now, right??!!

And my fear that Iran may already have nukes has only grown. 

The only thing keeping Iran quiet for the moment--except for occasional hints that seem more frequent lately, with "repeated statements in April and May from senior Iranian officials, including a top foreign policy adviser to the Supreme Leader, that have begun to normalize discussions about Iran’s ability to procure a nuclear weapon"--may have been the complete failure of their missile and drone barrage directed at Israel. Without missiles that can penetrate Israeli missile defenses carrying a nuclear warhead, the mullahs only invite fatal nuclear retaliation. 

Say, I wonder what Russia is paying Iran with for all the military support Iran sends to Russia?

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: None of this should shock anybody who pays attention to the news:

Washington’s de facto alliance with Iran, which began under the Obama administration and was revived by Biden, is the central fact of US foreign policy today. Iran is the decisive factor in most decisions the US makes in the region, including in relation to Israel. Yet White House officials know that stating this directly would create a public-relations disaster.

But do read it all. I don't stand with everything the writer sets out, but on our Iran policy he's spot on.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.