No longer tied to the defense of Europe because of the shattering of the Soviet Union, Britain is looking to a wider world of defense missions to support their diplomacy and trade. Will the sun ever set on British influence?
The British announced that their carrier strike group has reached initial operating capability:
Britain is now able to deploy a combat capable Carrier Strike Group anywhere in the world.
So the group can fight. But it will need training and
experience to be fully combat ready, which is scheduled to be attained
in December 2023. This major change in British sea power highlights a change in Britain's strategic position.
The British traditional offshore strategy is revived. And actually, I wrote about that shift earlier:
The British national strategy--and my impression is enhanced by Brexit--seems to be like British strategy in the Napoleonic era of supporting allies in Europe from the sea without getting deeply involved in ground combat until the enemy is weakened. ...
Britain is spreading its fleet and diplomacy thin globally, with a hammer of a powerful naval task force to support a small ground and air expeditionary force.
It isn't just me noticing this return to an off-shore balancing role:
When asking the question of where Britain is, the following answers arise. First, trade is important, but the North American markets are as large as the EU. Second, Europe is highly unpredictable and frequently volatile, while Britain’s presence in NATO keeps it in Europe alongside the United States, and therefore with weight. Finally, the Five Eyes, descendants of Britain who evolved to their own satisfaction, focuses these nations on something that is frequently more important than anything: war and its prevention through intelligence.
The Irish, Scottish and Welsh issues are likely to be contained, but for now I make this argument. Britain is no longer the ruler of a global empire. It cannot live with Europe, but it must align with others. The Five Eyes, as an intelligence and military alignment, is already in place and need not be negotiated. The alliance is sufficiently loose that no one is obligated to do more than share intelligence. It is also bound by history. And those five nations can be a force to be reckoned with, as well as a market already shared and readily opened. And each nation has an interest in it.
I'm sure I've made the point that Britain has not abandoned influence in Europe by exiting the European Union. The EU is not the same as Europe no matter how much the EU wants to say it. Through NATO and trade, Britain has influence. Britain just isn't controlled by the EU now. What I hadn't considered is that the Five Eyes is really the basis for in essence defining the scope of Britain's global role.
And of course, aligning with America adds the decisive weight to British military power while keeping Britain at the table when decisions are made. This will benefit British trade relations without tying economic well being to decisions in Brussels.
I'll still miss the British Army of the Rhine to watch the Russians. But Britain has essentially chosen America over the EU as their primary defense partner.
How will the EU's defense ambitions to replace NATO recover without British military power inside the EU?
