I don't assume America can defeat China in a war over Taiwan:
When comparing the armed forces of the United States and China, we are still substantially more capable than China. Our ability to project power, for example, remains ahead of China. Critically, however, the balance of power near China’s shores would give them virtually every advantage militarily. Repeated wargames conducted in the United States pitting the U.S. against China in a Taiwan scenario reveal the ugly truth.As I've long argued:
The basic situation of the Taiwan Strait crisis is that China is much weaker militarily than America but China is much closer to Taiwan, giving China a head start on deploying decisive power to the combat area.
Further, Taiwan is weaker than China and the imbalance grows as Chinese national power expands each year. Taiwan's basic hope is to be too difficult to conquer quickly, buying time for America (and Japan) to intervene.
China is no longer "much weaker" than America. But the basic geography of deployments is unchanged. Yet I also think you shouldn't assume that China must fight America to conquer Taiwan. As even that first article notes, defeating America is only China's Plan C for taking Taiwan:
China’s A2/AD strategy, the Pentagon report explains, is designed to "dissuade, deter, or, if ordered, defeat third-party intervention during a large-scale, theater campaign such as a Taiwan contingency."
But I strongly disagree with the author's conclusion that America should not prevent China from taking Taiwan. The price of China capturing Taiwan exceeds the price of defending Taiwan.
UPDATE: The American and allied air power edge. China hopes to close the large gap. Russia has more than enough to do without thinking about helping China.
But America needs defended and supplied bases to deploy the air power America could add to the fight in the western Pacific. As I noted in this data dump, America is well aware of the issue:
The Air Force will practice deploying to different Pacific islands. Good, hop on those islands before anyone takes them to use against us. Land-based air power counts for controlling the seas despite not being part of a navy.
Allies near China need excess base capacity, of course.
