Can the West ally with Russia to help Russia hold its influence in Central Asia in the face of Chinese inroads in influence in the former Soviet republics there?
Despite its revulsion at Moscow’s conduct, Washington will still need a Russia strong enough to effectively control its own territory and to create regional balances of power in Asia that favor Washington. The United States need not fear Russian power. Rather, it needs to think creatively about how it can harness Russian strengths, interests, and ambitions to advance its own. As the superior power, the United States should not find that to be an impossible task.
Oh, it dresses up that impulse with nuance and sophistication. One would expect nothing less from a Foreign Affairs article.
But alienating the West was Russia's choice. Helping Russia break free from China's grip can't be achieved by feeding Putin victims in the hope he will be grateful. That's a recipe for providing regular meals.
Saving Russia is on Putin's survival instincts--not the West's "creativity" for rewarding Russia with a lovely parting gift after stopping its invasion and brutalization of Ukraine. Putin--or his sudden successor--has to make hard decisions to cut Russia's losses in the west and pivot east before it is too late. FFS, I resent being asked to care more about Russia's survival than Russia's leaders feel.
But if Russia does make the hard decision, how do we encourage Russia's passage to sanity while helping ourselves without punishing Ukraine for being Russia's latest victim?
This article
looks at the inability of the modernized Abrams to fight China in
future decades (although the Army Science Board report seems to be gone). The Army is looking not at invading China, but operating
around its periphery, as the illustration at the top indicates.
My view is that failure to think about using the Army's large-scale combat operations capabilities around China's periphery simplified China's strategic problems to their target of the moment. I wrote about this in Military Review a number of years ago.
And operating around China's periphery included in Russian territory either against Russia or alongside them if we want to directly help Russia hold their Pacific territory that Russia took from China in the 19th century.
Central Asia is Russia's pivot point for sustaining their Far East territory, in addition to the value of the region for trade and a buffer.
Although I don't think America can really spare the resources to operate in Central Asia except in a supporting role for a future allied Russia's military forces aligned with local allies. I'm not keen on trying to project and sustain an effort in Central Asia through hostile territory. In yet another area, the Gordian Knot of Iran adds another strand to our problems.
Unhappy Central Asians may provide the leverage to get Russia to get its Putin out of its buttocks:
Numerous accounts of Russia’s position and influence in Central Asia have commented on Moscow’s declining standing there. Those results are visible in the clear unhappiness of Central Asian governments with the war in Ukraine, what they perceive as Russia’s failure to take their interests seriously. Moreover, Russia’s faltering economy substantially reduces its ability to provide the economic investments these countries need. China’s corresponding ascension, particularly regarding economic investment and trade in Central Asia, reflects this decline.
I say an eventual deal that promises NATO support for Russia in Central Asia is the proper carrot to get Russia on that coveted exit ramp from the war against Ukraine to seek advantage away from its western borders.
This could be the form of the deal of the century.
UPDATE: Russia seriously needs to focus on Central Asia:
[Turkey] seems to be intruding politically throughout Central Asia, which is an area of extreme importance to Russia. This creates a potentially explosive situation.
It's not like Turkey can expect help from America these days. Russia needs help to maintain their influence in those former Soviet territories.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
