It's after Thanksgiving so we can justifiably turn our attention to Christmas. Yes, Die Hard is a Christmas movie. And now for something completely different:
Pakistan's military fights to remain in control: "The usual political chaos in Pakistan is expected to abate somewhat after national elections are held in February 2024." Not that politicians are the solution, but Pakistan suffers from the military in control. But I concede that Islamist civilians could make nuclear-armed, Islamist-infested Pakistan worse.
As we marvel at Ukraine dropping explosives from drones, note that in 2009 I reported on the US Army interest in dropping 81mm mortar bombs from drones.
European aid: "The Netherlands is making €2 billion ($2.2 billion) available for military aid to Ukraine in 2024, the Dutch Ministry of Defence said."
Realizing that a long war is going on. Does anybody ever go home by Christmas?
I'd say this could be a brilliant way for China to bypass our border security to launch a bio attack on America. But we have no border security, so ... what's up?
Lysenkoism takes its toll on American science, Tip to Instapundit.
China's subliminal war against the Philippines continues: "China has showed interest in atolls and shoals that are 'closer and closer' to the coast of the Philippines, with the nearest atoll about 60 nautical miles (111 kilometers) away, Marcos said."
And now for something completely different:
The Navy's need for combat logistics ships to sustain combat operations far from our shores. Preaching to the TDR choir. The U.S. needs to sustain the Navy overseas and the Army and Air Force, too. Do we have an option to quickly expand the logistics train?
Somebody needs to review their oath to uphold and defend the Constitution.
China's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) forces try to keep enemies away from its coast. America's will try to keep China's navy from leaving its ports: "Next year, U.S. Army Forces Pacific will deploy new intermediate-range missiles to the region as part of its efforts to deter China from invading Taiwan, its commander said Saturday."
And now for something completely different, President Biden celebrated his 81st birthday:
Sudan: "Foreign military support—which is crossing borders from neighboring
Chad, Libya, Egypt, and Central African Republic, and originating from
allies as far afield as Russia and United Arab Emirates—is proving
sufficient to prolong the war but has not been enough to give either
side a sufficient upper hand that could force a definitive end to the
fighting." What about the role of humanitarian NGOs?
Rule of law requires responsible leaders who don't mis-use laws with technically allowable measures: "In a joint announcement with the White House, the Department of Energy (DOE) said the federal government would award a 'historic' $169 million for nine projects across 15 sites nationwide in an effort to accelerate electric heat pump manufacturing. The significant level of funding was made possible after Biden utilized the 1950 Defense Production Act (DPA) to increase domestic production of green energy technologies." There is no relation between the act and the action. Shame on the government. Tip to PJ Media.
Via Instapundit, California's largest marijuana distributor has collapsed. California's progressive government could ef up a wet dream.
But no mention of China's slow genocide of Moslem Uighurs in Xinjiang province: "The world must (sic) 'must act urgently' to stem the conflict in Gaza, China’s top diplomat said Monday during a meeting with officials from Arab and Muslim majority nations, as Beijing steps up its efforts to play a role in establishing ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict."
Making friends and influencing people: "Australia’s prime minister has accused the Chinese navy of 'dangerous, unsafe and unprofessional' conduct after an incident in international waters near Japan[.]"
Russia is going to extreme measures to get recruits--including from former republics--and tangible contributions to the war effort rather than admit Russia is at war and go to a full war footing. I assume this expensive effort is just to buy time until Putin is "reelected" in early 2024, after which he can mobilize civilians and raise taxes to fund the war.
Ukraine is facing problems putting new troops into the field: "In a recent essay, Ukraine’s top military commander, Valery Zaluzhny acknowledged that training and recruiting troops was becoming a serious challenge." Western economies can outproduce Russia if the effort is made. But Ukraine hasn't been able to recruit foreigners at scale to counter Russia's larger population. Ukraine, too, will have to go to full conscription to cope.
The war on terror continues: "U.S. troops and partner forces have conducted 387 operations against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria so far in 2023, far more than they did in all of 2022, according to U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM. " But apparently we aren't killing nearly as many. Is that Biden policy? Is this a faux war on terror designed to pump up strike statistics while not angering the jihadis too much? Because that would be futile.
Challenging China's subliminal offensive: "The militaries of the Philippines and the United States launched joint patrols on Tuesday in waters near Taiwan, officials of the Southeast Asian nation said, a move likely to fan further tension with China." Will China escalate to keep pushing?
Island hopping: "Soldiers with the 25th Infantry Division in Hawaii recently wrapped a
two-week exercise that included simultaneous offensive attacks and
defensive maneuvers for a brigade stretched across multiple islands and
hundreds of miles of ocean." As long as the Army doesn't forget that sometimes one island requires multiple brigades on a single island for a protracted fight.
Sure looks like Media Matters conspired against X (a.k.a. Twitter) to defame Musk. More.
Russia's Karakurt-class corvette. Ukraine severely damaged one under construction in eastern Russia-occupied Crimea.
I'd round up the usual Iranian suspects: "Commercial air crews are reporting something 'unthinkable' in the skies above the Middle East: novel 'spoofing' attacks have caused navigation systems to fail in dozens of incidents since September." Additional chaos will be cited to push for a ceasefire before Israel can destroy Hamas. To be fair to Iran, this might be primarily a defensive effort to degrade a missile attack (with potentially beneficial collateral damage), which is what Israel appears to be doing around itself. Tip to Instapundit.
In unfortunate P-8 news: "A Navy plane flying in rainy weather overshot a runway Monday at a military base in Hawaii and splashed into Kaneohe Bay, but all nine aboard were uninjured, authorities said."
More ammunition for Ukraine, but the packages are getting small until Congress authorizes more military aid.
Yes: "Over the last two decades, China has aimed to reduce the American presence in Asia and eventually ease the United States out of the region entirely. To accomplish this, Beijing has focused on weakening U.S. alliances and isolating countries such as Australia and Japan." Herding the cats is America's response to deny China its objective. I think America's approach has been defeating China's approach. But I agree that American economic ties have to rival China's ties to regional states to strengthen our web of bilateral alliances.
Huh, somebody took the "let the Wookie win" strategy and applied it to Israel's war against Hamas.
Via Instapundit, why our troops fight. But do our senior leadership share that?
The Army wants troops to pay for the equipment they were ordered to leave behind in the Afghanistan Skedaddle Debacle. The supply clerks must balance the books. I experienced that mindset although not on that scale and obviously not in war. When I turned in my equipment near the end of basic training, the supply clerk rejected my rucksack straps as too worn. That they were no more worn than when I was issued them was not an issue. My choice was to pay the high price of replacing them, appeal and stay in the military longer for that (hey the clerk wouldn't pay my salary), or replace them. I went to the PX, bought two new right-side straps (that's all they had) and returned to the clerk's window. The clerk spent some time examining them, I suppose debating whether two new right-side straps were good enough. They were. And so I would get out on time. Luckily the clerk didn't notice the helmet strap that was broken when I got it and which I had to MaGuyver to work during basic. Small or large, the clerks will balance their ledgers.
Protests in Russia over young men left at the front.
For the upcoming Army-Navy football game, the Army team's uniform will pay tribute to the 3rd Infantry Division's setting of the Middle East land speed record in 2003. The Navy team will honor the submarine service. Go Army! Beat Navy!
Good: "Northrop Grumman expects the US government to finalize a sale of its Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System (IBCS) to Poland, potentially worth $4 billion, “very, very soon,” according to a company official." American and other NATO forces flowing through Poland need to be protected.
Consequences: "Seoul is restarting aerial reconnaissance operations at the North Korean border, suspended since 2018, after Pyongyang launched a rocket carrying a spy satellite late Tuesday."
Yes: "'We are seeing some of the benefits of having [US Central Command] CENTCOM looking both at defense of Israel issues and the overall picture in the region,' Hicks said at a Defense Writers Group breakfast in Washington." I did mention it was a good idea.
Biden may reverse his reversal of a Trump decision about that Iranian proxy: "The White House says it is considering redesignating Yemen’s Houthi rebels as a “terrorist” group after they claimed the seizure of a commercial ship in the Red Sea." Democratic Party love for mullah-run Iran is unrequited. The clue bat hurts, doesn't it?
I've wondered if our new SSBN production run would be extended to replace our soon-to-retire force of 4 old converted (after the Cold War) SSBNs that now carry up to 154 long-range conventional cruise missiles (and able to deploy SEALs). Sure looks like the Navy will stick with its virtual replacement of converted Virginia SSNs that each can carry about a quarter of what each old SSGN carry. Which is a shame, because now the Virginia boats have two missions--hunting enemy subs/ships and land attack. Can we afford less than full attention to sea control these days?
It's blackmail to force the UN and a new national Libyan government to validate illegal agreements made with factions: "Russia and Turkey continue to keep troops in Libya despite agreeing to withdraw their troops. Both nations want to protect their interests in Libya with sufficient guarantees that their economic agreements will be respected."
But Trump is the dictator? "Unlike prior and subsequent presidents, he obeyed court decisions and followed the law scrupulously. Take a look at the Biden era and you can easily find examples where Biden thumbed his nose at the courts whenever he wanted, and he certainly has ignored federal laws with impunity. Think, say, following federal immigration laws, or his disobeying the court on student loan forgiveness." As I've noted, Trump didn't seize power from 2017 to 2021. But next time he will? This is insanity. Get a grip. And look at Biden. Tip to Instapundit.
That this relationship wasn't clear before law enforcement was hamstrung is just stunning: "The two-decade-high level of homicides in the nation since President Joe Biden took charge of the White House has apparently helped to boost those who believe that the criminal justice system is not tough enough on criminals." Tip to Instapundit.
I mentioned this shortly after October 7th: "American warships are likely maintaining a healthy distance from the Mediterranean coastline. Hezbollah—a Shiite militia and major player in the region—is known to operate anti-ship missiles, and in 2006 used them to heavily damage an Israeli corvette off the coast of Lebanon."
Men who are dead or who have fled don't have children for the Motherland: "Russia has moved in recent weeks to push for the adoption of a number of measures to avert a severe demographic crisis that has been compounded by President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine." Ukraine has a similar problem, of course. As does the West in general, from Asia to Europe.
America responded with an AC-130 gunship strike that killed some of the enemy militia: "Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Iran-backed militias used close-range ballistic missiles against U.S. and coalition forces, resulting in 'several non-serious injuries and some minor damage to infrastructure.'"
I'm sure Russia is trying to set the region aflame to distract NATO from helping Ukraine: "NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday the alliance was concerned by secessionist rhetoric in Bosnia, as well as by Russian influence in the country[.]"
The Western girls who try to kill for Hamas in America. Am I wrong?
Let's hope Elon Musk can prove in court what the technical analysis makes clear about the Media Matters for America part of the covert Bureaucracy-Media Censorship Complex. And note that Musk's "suppression" of some users (i.e., Substack links) is based on perceived business needs and not ideology.
I don't know if this is true or just part of the pressure on Taiwan to feel too doomed to resist: "'The Taiwan question is a matter of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national unity. So this is something like a life-or-death question for China...there's no room for concession,' said Cui, [the once long-serving PRC ambassador to America] now officially retired." But as Putin showed with his long propaganda against NATO, it can take on a life of its own. Written after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine, was this prescient about Russia's current dilemma, or what? "The problem for Russia is that by the time they feel secure enough to recognize that China is the real threat to Mother Russia, NATO and the West will be so disgusted with Russia that Moscow won't be able to even hope for our help should China decide that Russia's Far East is really a Core Interest of China that should return to the loving embrace of the Han Empire."
So Capitol Police went undercover at the January 6th protest/riot as Antifa people? Huh. How hard did they sell their faux identities? Tip to Instapundit.
Via Instapundit, Xi Jinping has abandoned economic growth as the foundation of CCP legitimacy for monopoly rule: "Perhaps the greatest threat to China’s economic growth and development is Xi himself. Xi has spent the last few years tightening government control over all aspects of life in the country, including the economy. The regulatory crackdown on large tech companies like Alibaba, which began in late 2020, is a case in point." Is the new foundation repression and control or conquest-based nationalism?
I'm not going to miss that orbital mobile home sitting on cinder blocks. At best it kept NASA's ground infrastructure alive until we can have a real program to get people living off the Earth. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
Ouch: "The White House on Tuesday said Iran may be considering providing Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine." It hurts because Obama enabled Iran's missile program. Because the Obama-Biden gang loooves mullah-run Iran. Chickens. Meet roost. How much more pain will we endure from that horrible deal?
Decades ago I read that in full-scale conventional war that you need to keep 40% of your troops as a rotation reserve to allow units fighting to rotate out to rest and rebuild. I wonder how Russia and Ukraine fare with that standard? This is a different standard than the COIN standard of having two units for every unit in the field (one fighting, one preparing to fight, and one recovering from the fight).
Happy Thanksgiving! Although my wishes are belated. It's that time of year for a meme I'm pretty pleased with:
Uh oh: "Back in September representatives from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso met
in Bamako to work out details for forming AES (Alliance of Sahel
States). The alliance is meant to improve security for all these
nations. Currently Islamic terror groups are attacking all AES members.
Burkina Faso is the worst hit, with about 40 percent of its territory
controlled by Islamic terrorists. Mali and Niger fear the same fate will
befall them.
" As I said, AFRICOM is still needed.
Norway getting three new Arctic-capable coast guard ships.
Yeah, I've certainly noticed the British media bizarrely panicking about Trump. I just don't see the threat they think they see. Let's just consider the "he'll surrender to Putin by withdrawing from NATO" notion. And consider what the people who opposed his NATO efforts were thinking. Trump didn't cause trans-Atlantic friction. And Europeans wet their pants "screeeing" like 12-year old girls about Obama in contrast to Trump's efforts to resist Russia that I summarized. Still, as Europeans look across the Atlantic and get their panties in a twist--Squirrel!
I sure hope Iran isn't having the Houthi drain the ship's missiles prior to making a serious effort to hit the ship: "A U.S. warship shot down "multiple one-way attack drones" launched from
Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen on Thursday morning local time,
according to the United States Central Command." [LATER: I heard from a friend that Phalanx is being used, so I'm calm again.]
I've long been a fan of the A-10. But I think the author's claim the plane can survive in a modern air defense environment is based on his assumption that the recent deployment of A-10s to CENTCOM is intended to fly and fight into the teeth of such defenses. Nor do I buy that data which is based on leisurely bombardment campaigns rather than close air support under intense ground attack. That's pretty thin evidence of the A-10's ability to fly and fight in that environment. I worry about the people and procedures we are losing.
That's been my impression: "The Economist created a useful chart which indicates that it is not. The chart shows that the military equipment the U.S. has supplied to Ukraine is redundant stock that is on the way to being replaced with new advanced equipment. The three main systems that are at a low point are Javelins, Stingers and ATACMs. Ukraine has been a useful testing ground for all of them."
The Army's navy to cross water barriers, whether seas, rivers, or the gap between ships and piers.
Learning the unique skills to survive and win in trench warfare.
There's a strong case to be made for this: "'The next fight against our major adversary will be like no other,' the 14-page document begins. 'The use of non-kinetic effects and defense against those effects prior to and during kinetic exchanges will likely be the deciding factor in who prevails.'" I don't worry unless someone thinks non-kinetics are replacements for the exploding things rather than the necessary foundation to blow things up and avoid getting blown up. Oh.
How will Russians react to the militarization of its society?
That Rainbow Bridge crash is weird. Did the driver have drugs in the car and suddenly got panicked over the thought of a secondary search that would discover that? Lord knows I've had my adventures with border security over the years (although I seem to have aged out of whatever profile inspired that attention). But I've never thought of running for it.
The T-7 trainer can easily be converted to the F-7 fighter-bomber.
The A2/AD game: "The United States of America (USA) is all set to mount a 'missile wall' in the Pacific Ocean, based largely out of Islands in Japan, Taiwan and Philippines in 2024 to counteract an ever-aggressive China." I mentioned the wall.
A ship unable to leave port because of lack of maintenance is just waiting to be sunk: "Keeping the ballistic missile submarines, aircraft carriers and attack submarines operational is a priority, with the surface fleet coming in behind, former U.S. Navy Surface Warfare Captain Bradley Martin, now a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation think tank, told Newsweek." Yes.
Hezbollah is firing at Israel more. But they still aren't using the "big guns" to risk a full war.
A French think tank says the Winter War of 2022 has wrecked Russia's advantage in the Baltic states: "With the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the Baltic theater is reconfigured so profoundly to Russia’s disadvantage that no amount of effort could make "Fortress Kaliningrad" defensible,' the report said." Russia will rebuild eventually. But the advantage over Kaliningrad is vital in the long run.
A call to withdraw American troops from Syria: "Why drawdown completely? The answer is simple. The small contingent of
U.S. forces in Syria, especially, are sitting ducks for further attacks
in support of missions where the costs of continuing those missions now
far outstrip their strategic benefits." I'm certainly concerned about America supporting the mission. But don't pretend we don't have missions there, including screening Iraq. How do we make up for pulling out of Syria to continue that mission? With our troops in Iraq still targets. And doesn't the Syria withdrawal logic mean we have to pull out of Iraq, too? The author sneaks that in at the end. That didn't work out too well the last time we did. Even Obama recognized that and re-engaged.
Interesting: "Russian military officers have offered a bleak overview of Moscow's prospects in the ongoing war in Ukraine, bemoaning a lack of strategy from leadership."
The Middle East is not a "quagmire" for American forces. America has enduring interests there and stubborn enemies who would win if we left. Saying it is a quagmire ignores how much our forces have been drawn down from peaks to much lower levels of fighting. And don't you have to say Europe and Asia are American "quagmires" because our military can't seem to leave those areas?
The European Union voted to strengthen the powers of the EU over member nation states, and isn't even trying to hide its imperial aspirations. Shocking, I know. A united Europe is not in America's interest. The proto-imperial EU is a threat to America and to European freedom. But now, with Europeans focused on the external Russian threat, the EU will use yet another crisis to strip away the prefix. Macron smiles. And Germany knows its place. Don't believe the EU will create a kinder and gentler empire. Watch for the EU to reduce the ability of the nation members to survive ever closer union and so prevent a future peaceful Brexit on the continent.
Maddow thinks she is showing us the Nazi sympathizers in 1930s America as a warning of what MAGA might do. In reality she is showing what progressives and their Hamas allies are doing right now. And now for something completely different:
It seems to me that those who claim Western sanctions on Russia have "failed" rely on the notion that sanctions that don't crush an enemy don't work. It's no silver bullet, but Russia is worse off than it would be without sanctions. That's all we can expect.
The divided European defense economies have not been able to match American war production capabilities. I'm sure the EU will use that fact to justify giving it more power. Still, I don't understand why European countries with a GDP larger than Russia couldn't match Russian production.
Four decades of South Korean frigate development.
You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.
I was at the game:
Gotta say Ohio State has a good football team. While I was tense and occasionally flirted with being "concerned", I was strangely confident Michigan would win. I was way more tense and concerned watching the Penn State and Maryland games. Don't know why. I was not tempted to storm the field after the game. That had post-event "It seemed like a good idea at the time" written all over it. A man's got to know his limitations, eh?
Russia continues to make progress toward a stealth fighter. And always will?
Russia is working to adapt to sanctions even as the West works to tighten them. But: "Economic sanctions have been increasingly popular during the last
century, even though they rarely work as intended. A current example of
this is what happened to Russia after they invaded Ukraine. Russia
continues to suffer high economic costs caused by the economic sanctions
imposed by most Western nations. Russian leaders realize even now that,
if the cost of continuing the war against Ukraine reaches the point
where more and more Russians experience declining living standards, they
might lose. A growing number of Russians see the Ukraine War as
something they can’t afford and can justify getting out of."
You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You do not.
China continues to illegally claim the bulk of the waters of the South China Sea: "The Chinese military said on Saturday that American naval destroyer USS Hopper entered China's territorial waters without the approval of the Chinese government." I hope we provide robust overwatch. One day the Chinese will challenge a warship lawfull traversing the sea without unneeded and unlawful Chinese permission.
Again, not shocked: "Who could have predicted that within 24 hours of [the October 7th Hamas] pogrom, crowds would appear in New York, Ft. Lauderdale, Toronto, London, and Sydney denouncing Jews and calling for an end to the Jewish State? Who might have anticipated that the message from academe would be, in so many words, that Israel had it coming?" These people just didn't have the modern Internet megaphone to draw support from each other back on September 12, 2001. And these people existed in the pre-Internet age where they were even more atomized. Tip to Instapundit.
