Defeat in the latest six month war was due to being outmaneuvered by Israeli tactics that exposed the weaknesses and ruthlessness of Hamas and left the rulers of Gaza much worse off than when they began. This time Hamas thought they could win the media war by encouraging civilians (via free food, publicity and cash payments for those injured or killed) to try and physically force their way through the security fence and into Israel. It didn’t work and so far over 150 Palestinians have died. One Israel has been killed, by a Hamas sniper using a long range 12.7mm Iranian sniper rifle. Hamas lost dozens of members, many of the promising young leaders, These men were in the crowds to urge the largely male (and teenage) force to keep going in the face of tear gas, rubber bullets and real bullets for the few who made it through the fence. This was all captured on video, from both sides, and it did not reflect well on Hamas, which lost more support from its few remaining Arab allies (and donors). This included Egypt, which also closed its border to Gaza as well as increasing efforts to find and destroy Hamas smuggling tunnels into Egypt.
It is important to realize that the Palestinians aren't "protesting." They are assaulting Israel's border defenses using massive numbers of human shields. And Hamas dreams of piercing those border defenses so Palestinian civilians--with as many children as possible among them--flood into Israel, possibly compelling outnumbered Israeli defenders to use live ammunition on a large scale to contain the mostly unarmed invasion lest the invaders make it into civilian areas to inflict harm.
I hope Israel has mobile barriers to build back up halt lines in case the border is penetrated. That would be standard operating practice for surviving an enemy siege. But live ammo is the last resort.
Will Hamas escalate to open war, hoping an Israeli response will provide the Palestinian civilian body count and images that can be used to win a propaganda victory?
The Palestinians had global support for so many decades but they blew opportunities to have a state because proposals fell short of destroying Israel, too; and only gained multi-generation refugees stuck in limbo--a unique development in the long history of refugees assimilating into the countries they flee to.
Will Palestinians take the chance they have now?
