The Khashoggi killing is a difficult problem. See here for my thoughts after the affair went beyond my data dump mentions.
Saudi Arabia is an important ally in the region, central to opposing Iran and for much else, including efforts to modernize Saudi Arabia and countering jihadi ideology somewhat; and Saudi oil is crucial for the global economy.
Saudi Arabia is hardly the worst human rights violator in the world. The primary accuser Turkey is no prize these days under Erdogan. Saudi Arabia was worse in the past, pre-9/11. And if Saudi Arabia is destabilized Saudi Arabia could be far worse. De facto Saudi ruler Mohammed Bin Salman is no saint, but others who oppose him in Saudi Arabia would prefer to have MBS gone.
The search, according to the Turks, provided damning evidence:
Police searching the Saudi Consulate found evidence that Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi was killed there, a high-level Turkish official said Tuesday, and authorities appeared ready to also search the nearby residence of the consul general after the diplomat left the country.
But other than Khashoggi being missing and seemingly dead, what evidence floated by Turkey has proven to be true?
But murdering a journalist--even one with odd ties to intelligence and jihadi groups who is far from the democracy dissident he is portrayed as--should be out of bounds.
So what do we do if, as seems likely, Saudis killed Khashoggi?
We need to punish for the act but not destroy or weaken the country to lessen its aid to us.
Again, do we brutally punish every country that has killed a writer?
And what if punishing Saudi Arabia helps enemies who are no less brutal to domestic enemies?
This isn't an easy problem.
And then there is the question of who to punish?
It seems as if Khashoggi is truly dead and that Saudis did it.
Did MBS order the murder? Did he order the capture and interrogation that went awry and led to Khashoggi's death?
Did an ally of MBS do either without orders from MBS, believing Khashoggi's death was in the interests of MBS and Saudi Arabia?
Did an enemy of MBS do either without orders from MBS, believing the backlash orchestrated by Turkey is in the interest of moving Saudi Arabia post-MBS (and restoring comfortable corruption in MBS's opponents)?
If we punish MBS if he isn't guilty we are helping his enemies inside Saudi Arabia. But if MBS ordered the hit, he must be punished. To some extent.
And there is still some small doubt about Khashoggi's death. Could he have been smuggled out? That seems unlikely at this point, but if Turkey is working to harm rival Saudi Arabia, could a bribed Saudi official have sent Khashoggi out a side door without a camera? That seems unlikely to me at this point, but the possibility exists.
Yet given that this seems like something that would greatly benefit Turkey if it weakens Saudi Arabia as a rival by weakening the US-Saudi alliance, what if this is a Turkish set up even if MBS ordered it?
I did say in my "Leverage" post linked above that the Saudis needed to make a plausible case for rogue elements doing the hit.
Remember, this is a joint Turkish-Saudi investigation. What if Turkey makes a deal with Saudi Arabia for Saudi concessions on some issue of importance to Turkey--like abandoning support for America's backing of Syrian Kurds--and the joint investigation concludes that rogue Saudi agents killed Khashoggi during interrogation? It might even be true.
But that might be irrelevant. It would be difficult to disbelieve Turkey after their more colorful charges have been reported in the West as fact--or at least without any questions.
And consider that the Saudis might have bought a UN Security Council veto to shield this kind of barely plausible (or possibly true) conclusion:
A Frenchman held captive in war-torn Yemen for over four months after his boat ran into trouble near the port of Hodeida has been released, the French presidency announced Tuesday. ...
In a statement President Emmanuel Macron thanked authorities in Oman and Saudi Arabia for helping obtain his release.
And we have a precedent for sanctioning just the identified bad elements, this time the Basij portion of the Revolutionary Guards:
The US Treasury Department on Tuesday slapped sanctions on an Iranian paramilitary group along with a network of businesses that were providing it financing, as part of Washington's campaign of maximum economic pressure against Tehran.
How many times have Westerners excused Iran's mullah rulers for terrorism by saying it was the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) at fault and that they are beyond the control of the mullah government?
Remember, too, that Turkey wants Saudi Arabia weakened to make room for Turkish influence and not destroyed to allow Turkey's other rival Iran to make serious gains in the region.
I wouldn't be shocked if Turkey proves to be the key that "resolves" this affair.
Obviously, this is a lot of speculation. The murder of Khashoggi could just be as evil and stupid as it seems to be.
UPDATE: Exactly:
President Trump is facing his trickiest diplomatic dilemma to date: how to punish a wayward ally, Saudi Arabia, without strengthening its regional foes — particularly American enemies, like Iran.
There is more.
The foundation of the dilemma is do we want Saudi Arabia and the region to be better or worse after our punishment?
UPDATE: Don't forget that Russia would consider it a major victory to drive a wedge between America and Saudi Arabia.
UPDATE: A lot of people here and abroad would see $400 per barrel oil acceptable collateral damage, I imagine. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: Don't ditch Saudi Arabia:
There are two things the U.S. should not do. One is sweep Mr. Khashoggi’s murder under the rug. His disappearance has damaged Saudi Arabia’s standing, including in Congress. ...
But to do what the Iran-deal chorus and the Erdogan and Muslim Brotherhood apologists want—to dissolve the U.S.-Saudi alliance in a frenzy of righteousness—would be an absurd overreaction that plays into the hands of America’s enemies. It could also stampede the Saudis into even more recklessness.
Honestly, Saudi Arabia is a better ally than Pakistan and we put up with them.
And yes, I corrected every mention of "MSB" ...
UPDATE: Seriously, what do we know? With a bonus mention of Pakistan.
UPDATE: You don't have to think MBS is qualified to lead the Arabian chapter of the League of Women Voters to want him to succeed in his reform efforts.
