Let's start with the foundation that China can invade, and I think this is still a good scenario for how it would unfold. If China is willing to pay the price, they can give the order to invade.
I did not assume that an invasion would work. And even though I think China's chances of victory increase each year given Taiwan's failure to really spend like their lives and freedom depend on it, I don't assume Taiwan can't halt a Chinese invasion at some point, as this article argues Taiwan can do.
The article has an interesting chart on weather conditions indicating the obvious invasion windows are April and October. Ideally it would be timed so that China conquers Taiwan and then the weather turns bad enough to deny America the ability to counter-invade. But China only needs a two-week window, really. So we might want to analyze Chinese weather forecasting capabilities.
The article says that Taiwan will have 30-60 days warning that China will invade, and so can prepare a kill zone that will be too tough to overcome. I disagree.
Oh, I have no doubt that Taiwan will see what China is doing for that 30-60 day period. But the question of whether Taiwan will conclude that China is preparing to invade rather than just preparing to threaten an invasion or is preparing to do something lesser is not at all certain. Especially if, prior to invading, China starts those 60-day periods numerous times before pulling back and not invading.
Remember, achieving surprise doesn't consist of hiding your preparations for war, but of making your target believe an explanation for what they see that doesn't involve your decision to launch a war.
I disagree that the invasion will be primarily over the beaches. My scenario linked above relies on hitting and seizing ports.
And I think the time from initial missile salvo to invasion must be short to get the invasion going before Taiwan can deploy troops and before America can decide to intervene and mass forces to intervene. The author says that the Chinese believe they must achieve victory in two weeks or they lose. I think that this refers not to the ability of the Chinese to defeat Taiwan (and Taiwan believes they may not be able to resist alone for more than two weeks), but to the belief that it would take America two weeks to decide to intervene, get allied participation if possible, and get forces in position to intervene.
So China can't afford to dick around with a prolonged bombardment. The invasion will be difficult but China wants to fight Taiwan--not fight America. China will move before Taiwan can start mobilizing and deploying, and before America can start the discussions about intervening.
I am not persuaded of Taiwan's advantages at all by the author's tale of horror from the vantage point of a Chinese soldier embarking on the invasion fleet. One could write the same tale of horror from the vantage point of a Taiwanese soldier facing the invasion--or from the vantage point of an Allied soldier heading for Normandy by sea or air on D-Day 1944, for that matter. It is mere conjectural anecdote.
And the author's admission that he sees problems with Taiwanese military morale undermines his contention that the defense will be stiff and unyielding. I've read doubts about their morale.
China might not be able to conquer Taiwan in one campaign. Heck, Taiwan might even crush the invasion. An amphibious invasion on the scale needed to invade Taiwan truly is difficult to carry out.
But if Taiwan doesn't drive the invaders into the sea, China could find themselves with a bridgehead on Taiwan when the ceasefire goes into effect as the world worries about the possibility of an escalation to a clash between China and America/Japan:
Taiwan can't accept anything less than the annihilation of an invasion force that reaches their shores. Anything less just sets the stage for a Chinese build up on Taiwan for the next round that finally conquers Taiwan.
This is important. How many times have a asked readers to check the "definitions" section in an issue?
Taiwan might "defeat" a Chinese invasion if you define a Taiwanese victory as surviving China's attempt to conquer Taiwan.
But a "defeated" Chinese invasion that leaves Chinese forces ashore simply sets the stage for ultimate Chinese conquest of Taiwan.
