I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
But Russia would totally honor a new ceasefire: "Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated his latest assertion that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier than February 2022."
This will be difficult to navigate: "Turkey and HTS are continuing to coordinate their efforts to coerce the SDF into disarming and integrating into the HTS-led defense apparatus."
Unless this cuts off Russian financial resources from Africa, wouldn't it be better for Ukraine if Russia was stuck in Syria? "Turkey and Ukraine cooperated with each other as well as HTS in overthrowing the Assad regime." Not saying Ukraine's role was decisive, of course. But did it achieve more than intended?
Hmmm: "The Royal Netherlands Army plans to equip its soldiers with personal drone-protection gear, including targeting lasers and portable sensors[.]" Personal as in each soldier? At what point does lugging around personal protection hamper primary missions? I concede dead soldiers can't achieve any mission.
A victory of hope over experience: "The Biden administration said Friday it has decided not to pursue a $10 million reward it had offered for the capture of a Syrian rebel leader whose forces led the ouster of President Bashar Assad earlier this month."
Nearly three years into the war: "Recent satellite imagery of Belbek Air Base, near Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea, shows new hardened aircraft shelters and additional construction to help shield aircraft from drone attacks and other indirect fire." America won't have the luxury of time if China hits air bases.
A call to remove our troops from Syria and Iraq because they are "a potentially significant strategic vulnerability to our country." Saying our well-armed, -trained, and -supported American troops are sitting ducks rather than threats to our enemies astounds me. General Grant would disapprove.
Indeed: "A stronger maritime industrial base capable of fixing ships and getting them back into combat zones could be an important part of deterrence."
We're not going to take Greenland, the Panama Canal, or Canada (and FFS, the last was a mean tweet aimed at Trudeau) and I don't know how we could afford to buy them.
The Baltic Defense Line to slow down a Russian invasion must not neglect building a will to resist a Russian invasion by Baltic State citizens. Yes, this is a larger scale reflection of the fact that physical barriers must be stoutly defended to be of value.
Providing Taiwan with arms clearly isn't part of China's declared "red line" since America has done it for a long time. China's definition of what we promised has changed--not American actions.
The Syria "transitional" government will be led by a pragmatic Islamist engineer. Building a working bridge to the 21st century caliphate, no doubt.
What is Qatar doing in the eastern Mediterranean Sea? Perhaps Qatar is working with Turkey to extend Turkey's imperial reach to Qatar to protect it from Iran and Saudi Arabia. And probably support China's trade routes.
Is the Obama Doctrine that elevated mullah-run Iran to "friend we haven't tried hard enough to make" status" dead? Thank you, Israel. That policy-level elevation of hope over experience was always--and forgive the technical term--"stupid."
Russia threw Romania into government chaos. But Russia didn't do that with devious misinformation or disinformation out of nowhere. Russia exploited poor governance and grievances ignored. Russia isn't the reason a pro-Putin candidate got the most--but still relatively few--votes in a crowded first-round field.
Russia's effort to block the Internet from the outside world failed.
Not once more into the breach: "The recent rapid collapse of the Assad government in Syria was made possible by the Alawite ethnic group deserting their Alawite patron President Bashar Assad. For decades the Alawites had prospered by supporting the Assad family, but [many Alawites died defending Assad]."
Whack-in-a-box: "The Philippine military said Monday it plans to acquire the US Typhon
missile system to protect its maritime interests, some of which overlap
with regional power China." I highlighted this system on Substack.
The war on terror is not over: "The U.S. military conducted an airstrike on Monday in Syria, where they killed a pair of ISIS operatives and destroyed a truckload of weapons, according to U.S. Central Command."
I've had jobs that absolutely proved "negative time" is real in the hour before quitting time.
The F-35 really does represent a new capability that exploits stealth--as long as the military network holds together, of course.
The Army's "transforming in contact" experiments with new technology focused on non-armored brigades so far. Why no heavy forces?
A Russian cargo ship possibly intended to evacuate Russian troops and equipment from Syria sank in the Mediterranean Sea after an explosion in its engine room. Spain conducted a rescue but two crew are missing.
North Korea doesn't care if they survive: "North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast." Indeed, Kim Jong-Un doesn't want any of those "contaminated" troops to survive.
How can European states revive their defense-industrial base when its green energy policies have crippled all industries?
Just saying that with China running a chunk of the Panama Canal, Panama unable to pay to sustain water needs for the canal, and possible alternate shipping routes across Central America, America has reason to jump back in and Panama has reason to invite America back in, short of past full Canal Zone ownership.
China's projected population is crashing. I don't know if this makes China more aggressive--I doubt that's the decisive factor when China's regional targets face similar problems. And China's harsher rhetoric may be bluff to compensate. But I have looked at China's relative decline compared to America for some time.
Ball bearings: "Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war is being compromised due to catastrophic mismanagement of its railway system. This emerging situation is so dire that cutoffs of service to vast areas, starting with Siberia east of Irkutsk to the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, [may occur in 2025]."
The EU is no friend: "the primary threat to its technological edge comes from the United States, not China. EU studies reveal that Europe is trailing in nearly all advanced technologies—and it’s American, not Chinese, firms leading the acquisition of promising European startups." Bolster NATO. Stop the EU.
Courage in defense of our nation should be recognized: "Leader is one of a group of Indigenous veterans who are currently being reviewed as potential recipients of the Medal of Honor — more than a century after they served."
While I think the missions are worthwhile--and add in screening Iraq to prevent a 2014 repeat--the fall of Assad changes the situation and requires a review of what is worth dying to achieve there. Which is what I called for in Trump's first term. And note that Israel achieved what I thought our ultimate goals should be.
This is sad. But Hamas could solve this if it surrenders and stops using Gaza as a human shield: "Winter is hitting the Gaza Strip and many of the nearly 2 million Palestinians displaced by the devastating 14-month war with Israel are struggling to protect themselves from the wind, cold and rain."
France's military retreat from quasi-empire in Africa (for now).
The rise of counter-measures: "The British military recently conducted its first-ever successful, live-fire test of a new weapon designed to cost-effectively defeat swarms of drones, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defence." All is proceeding as expected.
A mother-friggin' rail gun: "The U.S. Army says it is planning to award a sole-source contract to BAE Systems to produce a prototype self-propelled 155mm howitzer for use as a novel air and missile defense system.
Significant shrinkage: "Migration, combat deaths and low reproduction rates are rapidly reducing the Russian population, which is currently about 145 million. It is expected to fall as low as 133 million by 2050."
Weapon accuracy and troop dispersal over time.
UNIFIL is correct: "The United Nations observer mission in Lebanon urged both Israel and Hezbollah to comply with the ceasefire agreement, warning on its Telegram channel on Thursday against actions that could jeopardize the fragile cessation of hostilities." But UNIFIL is not the one to lecture.
Hmmm: "A Chinese drone manufacturer has disclosed a massive government order for almost a million lightweight kamikaze drones, to be delivered by 2026." Suicide drones have a short shelf life. Does China plan to invade Taiwan? Sell them to Russia? Or is this a top-down order that only looks good on paper?
Government chaos unsettles defense: "Following the 2022 invasion, the German government announced a Zeitenwende, or turning point, in military policy. ... But despite these lofty aspirations, the German government’s turning point has largely consisted of spinning its wheels." Answer the German Question!
How the Marine Corps can maintain its momentum? But if the Marines need to stop digging to get out of the hole they dug for themselves, digging faster is bad.
Is this a ship training problem? "An F/A-18 Super Hornet was forced to take 'evasive maneuvers' after an SM-2 missile fired from the guided missile cruiser USS Gettysburg passed within 100 feet (30 meters) of the aircraft." We may over-compensate to avoid friendly fire, allowing the Houthi to hit Gettysburg.
Is Ethiopia's crisis an opportunity for new American diplomacy? So far, Turkey filled the power vacuum in the Horn of Africa.
Leaving the fate of Syria to Syrians is fine in theory. But Turkey, Israel, Iran, Sunni jihadis, and Russia are not going to follow that advice.
Narva: "This snow-covered border bridge between two medieval fortresses in a Russian-speaking corner of Estonia might be where World War III starts." I have thoughts in Army magazine on how to contain that threat, reinforce Article V, and defeat one form of armed aggression. I bolster my case in this post.
You can call it "hybrid war" but it is still Russia waging war: "Finnish authorities seized an oil tanker as part of an investigation into the cutting of an undersea [electric] cable connecting Finland and Estonia, they announced Thursday."
Collateral damage: "Azerbaijan Airlines Flight JS-8432 crashed in Kazakhstan Wednesday after being fired upon by a Russian Pantsir S1 short-range air defense system, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone[.]" The U.S. thinks that may have happened.
That's bad: "At least 6,000 inmates escaped from a high-security prison in Mozambique’s capital on Christmas Day after a rebellion, the country’s police chief said, as widespread post-election riots and violence are roiling the country."
Reaction: "NATO will bolster its military presence in the Baltic Sea after the suspected sabotage of an undersea power cable linking Finland and Estonia this week, the Western military alliance's chief Mark Rutte said on Friday." As some in the West tires of supporting Ukraine, Russia reminds us why we do.
If the issue is the direct cost to America, this could be a growing means for Ukraine to purchase arms from America: "Japan will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal assistance generated solely from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets." And we can't address wartime production shortfalls without sales now.
Syria from the dawn of civilization to the fall of Assad. Will the Druze request annexation by Israel?
A positive assessment of Marine Force Design changes. This puts what seems like insufficiently capable anti-ship missions as just one of many things a lighter force will do. I'm skeptical. And even if this change is needed to deal with China, why change non-Pacific Marines, too?
Russian counter-drone weapon: "Russian forces have begun using improvised counter-drone buggies armed with a weapon made up of 24 barrels that fire shotgun-like ammunition, as well as six AK-series infantry rifles on a single mount."
Are they obsolete now despite being new? "Soldiers with the 10th Mountain Division, which is currently deployed in Romania, recently became the first Army unit to field the service’s newest reconnaissance drones." Small drones are not mature, so updates from combat experience come quickly.
Well: "South Korea's National Assembly impeached the country's acting president Han Duck-soo on Friday, marking the second time in December that it has chosen to remove the country's leader in a tumultuous political climate." The "events" continue.
A look at China's newest design of a 6th generation combat aircraft.
Will this dig out corruption or just temporarily dormant? "China abruptly ousted two military lawmakers from its national parliament without explanation, as a purge of key personnel in the upper echelons of the nation’s defense establishment shows no sign of easing." And does corruption choose the purge targets?
If you wonder why I think over the next four years many Democrats will stop supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression (going back to their late Cold War position) while Republicans will start supporting Ukraine (ditto), wonder no more.
Even if the HTS leader doesn't want this, there are always those more Islamist than thou: "Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict." HTS fighters have "killed and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians accused of being Assad regime officials."
The foundation of our national power is our economic strength. So you can understand why my pucker factor is redlining. Tip to Instapundit.
Dave Barry's always amusing year in review: "Abroad, fighting continues to rage in both Ukraine and Gaza, although these conflicts are no longer getting a ton of attention in the U.S. media because of all the news being generated by Taylor Swift." Glad I don't have stock in one particular company ...
I keep hearing stories wondering whether North Korea will be upset with Russia for getting so many North Korean troops killed and wounded fighting Ukraine already. I'm pretty confident Kim wants all of them to die there.
The imperial borderland: "While many Belarussians dislike and distrust Russia, Belarussian leaders have been bribed or coerced by Russia to be pro-Russian. That means Russian special operations and espionage personnel can operate out of Belarus against neighboring countries." Russian nukes are there, too.
Our first suicide drone, the Tomahawk, lives on.
No! Way! "RUSSIA-LINKED dark fleet* tanker Eagle S (IMO: 9329760), seized by Finland on December 25 for damaging an undersea cable, had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a 'spy ship' for Russia, Lloyd’s List has learnt."
Mexico's new president seems to be changing course to fight with criminal cartels rather than live with them. Decades ago, Mexico looked the other way, claiming the problem was an American demand problem. And Mexico enjoyed the money flowing in to Mexico. That attitude has bitten Mexico in the ass.
Here we go: "Ukrainian forces have successfully outfitted FPV (first-person view) drones with miniature cannons, enabling them to intercept and destroy Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in mid-flight." Fighter drones!
Wargaming argues for Marine Littoral Regiments being a failure for defending Taiwan. I added that to my recent post on exactly that. To be fair, my issue with the CSIS wargame in question is broader.
The Army is buying more Cold Weather All-Terrain Vehicles (CATVs). Conventional vehicles don't work that well in the Arctic environment.
More on Navy "friendly fire" problems in air defense here and here. To be fair to the Navy, a mistake in the opposite direction means the loss of a very expensive warship and its crew. When surface ships are so vulnerable, risking the loss of a single American plane and its crew is a tragic bargain by comparison.
The AMX-10 is a heavy armored car and not a "tank" despite its turret with a 105mm gun. Ukraine isn't trying to use it as a tank and are instead using it as self-propelled artillery to keep it out of direct-fire combat.
I heard Russia's military has 1.5 million men. Up from their pre-war paper strength of a million. But Russia never reached a million. So I don't believe Russia has anywhere near what they claim. Unless Russia isn't releasing conscripts after their term, no way does Russia have 1.5 million troops.
Marine Corps Compass Points has a nice review of the Landing Ship Medium intended to move Marines around the western Pacific to sink Chinese warships. The operating concept and ship concept are flawed. I have some thoughts on coping with this flawed use of Marines coming up on Substack before 2025.
Army won its bowl game. Quite the season excepting one particular game ... . And a depleted 7-5 (but beating our rivals) Michigan will play ranked and staffed Alabama almost a year after it lost to Michigan, which ultimately won a championship. To say my pucker factor is redlined would not be an exaggeration.
Israel shattered Hezbollah this year. But it didn't touch its illegal drug money-making operations in eastern Lebanon. And Hezbollah has a global criminal reach to fund some rebuilding. You may remember that as a favor to Iran, Obama prevented American law enforcement from attacking that global network.
Ah, f**k. From a bird strike: "Two people survived and 179 were confirmed to have been killed in a plane crash at a South Korean airport Sunday. There were 181 passengers and crew on board." Imagine what terrorists with suicide drones could do.
Iraq suffered greatly from Iran-supported jihadi "ratlines" through Syria during the Iraq War and later ISIL erupting from Syria. So this is prudent: "Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al Abasi inspected Iraqi army units and border police at Rabia border crossing, along the Syria-Iraq border, on December 28."
