I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
Red storm writhing: "The Russian navy has not been mentioned much during the last year. The
reason is that there is not much of a navy left. Case in point is the
nuclear-powered Nakhimov, a 28,000-ton battlecruiser that entered
service in 1988." It is doubtful it will ever sail this century. Pity.
Canada's Arctic front: "Ottawa envisions the deployment of new patrol ships and navy destroyers,
ice breakers and submarines capable of operating beneath ice sheets, as
well as more aircraft and drones."
Drones. They provide needed capabilities but I don't think they've replaced air and artillery fires as the post claims. Russian air attacks have escalated. And Ukraine never had much. Because artillery and rocket shells don't have cameras for posting videos, I think the relative effect of FPV drones is exaggerated.
The alliance firms up: "Simulated missile strikes and dispersed military operations are the focus of a nine-day exercise involving forces from the United States, Japan and Australia."
I always wonder if these are FONOPs or just puffed-up "innocent passage": "A U.S. Navy warship on Friday sailed close to disputed islands militarized by Beijing and other nations in the South China Sea, the service announced soon after the freedom-of-navigation operation." Did it conduct warship operations?
In October, USS Carney used its 5" gun in an anti-aircraft role.
Russia gave Assad a ride and not help. Syria is what probably would have happened to Ukraine if Zelensky had accepted America's offer of a ride out in February 2022 when Russia invaded.
Is amphibious warfare dead? Broadly speaking, I'd say no. But assault landings against dug-in peer opponents is certainly very difficult to the point of being suicidal. During a long war it may be possible to build the assets and shape the battlefield as was done at Normandy on June 6, 1944. But now? Egad.
Does China's increased crossing of Taiwan's air defense identification zone within a plateau of military effort around Taiwan's ADIZ suggest China is at peak military capacity there? Maybe. Or it may just suggest China has reached the level needed for the H Hour strikes as well as dulling Taiwanese reactions.
The term is cheapened, but fully valid for China: "Under Xi Jinping, China meets all four hallmarks of what constitutes fascism – cult-like worship, hyper-nationalism, a merciless surveillance apparatus and the glorification of military strength." Feudalism, communism, fascism, ... democracy? One day, maybe.
I'm not against using race as a factor in the military. As long as all leaders meet standards high enough to be effective as a military asset and as long as trust in leaders benefiting from that factor is not undermined by wokeness. Quality and diversity make the military stronger, I say.
Never say the Russians don't have a sense of humor: "The Russian Foreign Ministry issued an appeal on Sunday for all parties involved in the toppling of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to refrain from the use of force."
Keep out: "Australia has signed a treaty with the Pacific nation of Nauru which gives Canberra a veto over security and infrastructure partners, dealing another blow to China’s efforts to expand its strategic presence in the region."
I heard a British The Telegraph podcast highlight how some American conservatives admire despots. The guest highlighted admiration starting with Germany's Kaiser before World War I. He noted that leftists are more known for despot worship! No host comment on the fact that Europeans followed actual despots.
Will Saudi Arabia exploit Iran's new weakness to go after the Houthi who in the past were happy to fire missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure on Iran's orders?
Huh: "A study by Chinese rocket scientists has uncovered a critical issue with the solid fuel used in intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). ... significant changes can occur in missile fuel columns within just 30 years[.]" I'm sure Russian quality control is much better. That said, this applies to America, too.
Huh: "Plagued by mass migration, economic decay, political turmoil, and an existential crisis of identity, Europe is a civilisation in freefall. Trump’s ambitious vision – with its focus on strength, sovereignty, and economic dynamism – may well be the West’s last best hope." I usually see panic in European media.
Will Syria fragment? Well, that path has long been evident. If Syria does split apart, don't expect the UN to recognize the results from below. Ask Somaliland and Puntland if they've been rewarded for providing some stability in a fractured state's territory.
Reach out and touch someone: "Australia has become just the third country to launch a Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile (TLAM) after the Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN) Hobart class destroyer HMAS Brisbane (DDG-41) successfully test fired the long-range weapon for the first time[.]"
Targets of opportunity: "Pentagon officials say that the massive strikes against more than 75
Islamic State terrorist group targets in Syria over the weekend were the
result of an opportunity created by the withdrawal of Russian forces
amid the collapse of the regime of Bashar Assad." Their shield disappeared.
Drones are a big factor in the Winter War of 2022: "[FPV] small drones are difficult to shoot down until they get close to the ground and the shooter is close enough, as in less than a few hundred meters, away to successfully target a drone with a bullet or two and bring it down." Could APS be modified to do that?
Russia wants its own gated Internet.
It's farcical for the Biden administration to claim any credit for the fall of Assad. Syria's Assad basked in the glow of Democratic love for its patron, mullah-run Iran. And be careful taking credit because those words will haunt them should jihadis come out on top in the next months or years in Damascus.
With Iran weakened by losing wars over the last year, I look forward to Trump resuming sanctions on Iran. Which is our enemy. Will it seriously harm the mullah-run regime? Hopefully. But at worst it forces China to pay for their new friend rather than relying on the West to sustain it. Tip to Instapundit.
The Philippines is absolutely at war. And China is the aggressor: "Marcos told reporters on Tuesday when asked if the government plans to send Navy warships. 'We are not at war, we don’t need Navy warships.'" He'd best send something effective or China will win its subliminal war.
Shameful: "The Biden-Harris administration waived sanctions on Iran three days after the November election, providing Tehran access upward of $10 billion in once-frozen funds, according to a copy of the non-public order[.]" Trump was wrong, too. But Biden still looves the mullahs. Tip to Instapundit.
Good: "The Missile Defense Agency intercepted an incoming ballistic missile threat target in a test from Guam, according to a Tuesday agency announcement." But I think we've been building up Guam as a major base for as long as I've been blogging.
They were escorting American merchant ships past Yemen: "U.S. destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG-106) and USS O’Kane (DDG-77) shot down a number of Houthi weapons in the Gulf of Aden between Monday and Tuesday, according to US Central Command."
Hmmm: "The Russian and Ukrainian militaries are moving to transform their soldiers’ rifles into weapons capable of countering exploding drones, experimenting with different ammunition types to determine the best shot[.]" That makes sense for troops on a static front. But it's a distraction during close combat.
LOL: "The Biden administration said Tuesday it will recognize and support a new Syrian government that renounces terrorism, destroys chemical weapons stocks and protects the rights of minorities and women." The Taliban promised to protect women and when they resumed oppression we kept the cash flowing.
The new car smell hides rust: "Chinese President Xi Jinping hasn’t come up with a workable solution for the Chinese military’s serious problems. The main one is corruption, which is pervasive and crippling." Are we exploiting or squandering the time that problem gives us? Long ago I noted the issue.
The Western Hemisphere outpost of the F**k-Up Fairy: "A recent surge in gang violence has led international aid organizations to get their personnel out of [Haiti] as soon as possible." The gangs are rising up and cooperating. The government-on-paper can't deal with this.
Chain guns go to sea in INDOPACOM: "At least four A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft, commonly known as Warthogs, have arrived at Clark Air Base in the Philippines, photos published on Friday by the U.S. Air Force showed. They will conduct integrated training with the Philippine air force through December 15."
The Chinese national was arrested while waiting to board a flight to China: "Federal police arrested Yinpiao Zhou on Monday after he was allegedly caught flying a drone over the Vandenberg Space Force Base, in California."
If Russia already thinks it is at war with the West, it's because Russians started believing their own BS.
Stop celebrating the victory of HTS over the admittedly evil Assad regime. It's sort of like welcoming Stalin's defeat of Hitler in World War II, no? Relief should be immediately followed by dread and a full weapons check.
China prefers to win its subliminal war: "Diplomats and representatives from the militaries and coast guards of the United States, Japan and the Philippines agreed this week they prefer a peaceful settlement of ongoing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea."
I believe more information enables maneuver rather than inhibit it. But mobile units need the communications to exploit information: "With several network modernization efforts in the works, the program office is seeking to examine the right mix of radios for units."
Will Chad reconsider if Russian help falters? "France flew out the two Mirage fighter jets it had stationed in Chad on Tuesday, signaling the beginning of its withdrawal of military forces from the former French colony in central Africa that last month broke off its defense cooperation agreement with Paris."
I suspect the potential crisis was solved with a parallel agreement with Somalia that "allows" the deal with Somaliland to proceed: "Ethiopia and Somalia have agreed to end their bitter dispute over Addis
Ababa's plans to build a port in the breakaway republic of Somaliland
following talks in Turkey." But I'm guessing.
Taiwan's objections are the point of the deployment: "Taiwan demanded Wednesday that China end its ongoing military activity in nearby waters, which it said is unilaterally undermining peace and stability and disrupting international shipping and trade."
Morons with cumberbunds: "Tony Blinken Tells Congress ‘No One Anticipated’ Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan[.]" He was warned of the risk by his diplomats before the collapse. I could see the risk before that. Why there wasn't a culling of the leadership herd for this failure--and defeat--is beyond me.
Is Russia one major shock from a collapse? I never assumed Russia was done breaking apart. If Russia is lucky, it will experience regime collapse rather than state collapse. Will Russia's generals see getting rid of Putin and ending the invasion of Ukraine a means of making sure it isn't the state that collapses?
Will the West stop Turkey: "Syrians fear their country now faces an Islamic regime under the Turkey-backed conquerors, and military intervention may be necessary[.]" Help isn't coming. Nobody wants to "further militarize" the conflict. Let Erdogan enjoy victory. Don't subsidize his imperial ambition.
The leader of HTS in Syria learned from history by keeping Assad loyalists in the bureaucracy? Ah, the false conventional wisdom that de-Baathification in Iraq was a mistake. HTS has learned from the victorious Taliban and the Iranian Islamists before them to appear moderate at their weakest moment.
Oh? "President-elect Donald Trump’s choice to be NASA’s next administrator, Jared Isaacman, said Wednesday that as the U.S. establishes more of human presence in space, it will eventually need Space Force guardians stationed in the domain to protect its economic interests." Here comes SMOD!
LOL: "A high-ranking official from the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), Russia’s state-owned aircraft manufacturer, has disclosed that the country’s fifth-generation Su-57 stealth aircraft is being equipped with sixth-generation fighter technology." Russians "disclose" a lot of things.
Can we command and control without emitting? "A handful of operational U.S. Army brigades now have a tool to “see” how they and enemy forces look in the otherwise invisible electromagnetic spectrum."
With spare air-to-air missiles, Ukraine has a "9K33 Osa (SA-8 Gecko) mobile short-range air defense system (SHORADS) armed with the Soviet-era R-73 (AA-11 Archer) infrared-guided air-to-air missile."
Individual NATO states may offer Ukraine defense guarantees: "In a so-called Berlin Declaration, the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain and the UK, as well as the EU's foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, outlined their continued support for Kiev." We all know why the EU is involved.
What are the drones flying over the New Jersey region? The Department of Defense says they aren't military or Iranian. Which doesn't mean they aren't controlled by another part of the government or a contractor. If foreign, could denial of a threat be for the purpose of gathering forces to take them down?
Are we really this stupid?! "Any plans the Air Force might have for new hardened aircraft shelters or other physical defenses at bases are prominently absent from a new infrastructure modernization strategy."
The U.S. wants Russians to know what is happening: "The information provided by soldiers who have been there, or parents seeking to find out what happened to their sons in the army, has caused growing reluctance to support the Russian operations in Ukraine." Russians are resisting service in Ukraine.
Another American military aid package for Ukraine.
Falling star: "President Vladimir Putin’s disdain for the Russian space program has doomed the Russian space agency Roscosmos. Escalating incompetence among Roscosmos managers and staff crimped efforts to make Roscosmos effective and relevant again."
Should Nimitz-class carriers be updated to remain in service rather than retire them as Ford-class carriers enter service? The author notes questions of survivability in the face of kill webs. But says carriers are useful. Sadly, usefulness always ends up as an apples and oranges debate. You know my thoughts.
China is outraged that their subliminal offensive faces resistance: "China accused the Philippines on Friday of having 'provoked trouble' in the South China Sea with U.S. backing, a week after Beijing and Manila traded accusations over a new confrontation in the disputed waters."
Apparently the Somalia-Ethiopia deal brokered by Turkey cancels the Ethiopian naval base deal with Somaliland with the promise of a Somalia-Ethiopia deal to be negotiated. We'll see. But my initial guess was wrong. Still, Turkey is making a play to fill the power vacuum in the Horn of Africa.
We'll lose expensive planes to sheer stupidity: "Chinese strikes on airfields will stymie U.S. military aircraft in the Indo-Pacific region if there is a conflict, a new study says, recommending that the United States invest in cheap, uncrewed aircraft and runway repair capabilities." How is repair not Airfield 101?
Saying "maximum pressure" on Iran won't work ignores that helping Iran since 2021 strengthened Iran. So reversing that again will undo Iranian resilience. Also, Iran has lost much over the last year. And will a better U.S. reputation as a strong horse have no effect? At the very least, we'll force China to pay for Iran.
Has the rapid fall of Assad to Sunni Arab rebels put the fear of Allah into Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Arab monarchs and autocrats? The enemy of their Iranian enemy is absolutely not their friend. And a facade of stability is not necessarily actual stability.
America needs Europe in friendly hands. And American military power through NATO knits together the separate strands of European power (and we should do more of that as I argued in Army magazine). And not to offend our European friends, but remember how things were when Europeans could wage war.
Russia wages a covert war on NATO: "In Poland civilian military police and intelligence services have been hunting down Russian operatives based in Belarus responsible for trying to organize a sabotage campaign in NATO nations in Eastern Europe, notably Poland."
How long before China has this? "European defense manufacturer Thales has an autonomous [sea] mine clearing system. The French Navy will be the first to use this system and, if it works, other NATO nations will probably adopt it." But it would be useful against Iranian mines laid around the Arabian Peninsula.
Upgrade: "The U.S. Army’s XM250 light machine gun replaces the M249 SAW, enhancing firepower and range with the new 6.8mm round, designed to penetrate next-gen body armor." Initial introduction will be focused on INDOPACOM, including Rangers and the 101st Airborne. They're Asia-focused? Really?
The American secretary of state made an unannounced visit to Iraq. Is it for the purpose of exploiting Iran's defeats in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza to fight Iranian power within Iraq? Or to orchestrate another skedaddle?
Bye? "A second motion submitted by the largest opposition party in South Korea to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol secured the required two-thirds majority in the country's parliament on Saturday." Their Constitutional Court will eventually rule on this.
Claiming America provoked Russia by "expanding" NATO ignores that the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 followed NATO disarmament and massive American withdrawal from Europe, including pulling out all its tanks. The accusation conflicts with the claim that Russia needs a buffer in Europe.
Does Taiwan count on this to overcome its own weaknesses? "In the absence of proper civil monitoring and an independent judicial system, it is very difficult for the CCP to monitor itself. Therefore corruption is certain to persist in the PLA, affecting the level of its overall combat readiness and military power."
Undoing the artificial borders drawn by colonial masters--by creating South Sudan--didn't solve the region's problem: "Once more war has broken out in the northeast African nations of Sudan and South Sudan." I think the border problem is over-stated. Most borders are artificial. And time gives them meaning.
Compare and contrast on the Korean peninsula.
I remember the Cold War. So yeah: "defeat in Ukraine would require the United States to spend $808 billion more on defense over the next five years than it has budgeted. Since 2022, by contrast, Congress has appropriated $112 billion to the Defense Department to assist Kyiv." Distance from Russia is good.
WTAF? "More than half of the Army's senior officers are turning down opportunities to command, choosing instead the stability of staff roles over the high-stakes demands of leadership, or retiring, according to internal service data." FFS, order them to command! How is this a choice? Via Instapundit.
A fair summary: "Biden administration officials have claimed credit this week for the ongoing collapse of the Iranian axis, seeking to recast their role in a series of Israeli victories that they worked to thwart." Tip to Instapundit.
The foundation of America's war on ISIL is crumbling: "Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander General Mazloum Abdi is attempting to preserve and unify the SDF’s Kurdish base as the group faces two existential threats (Turkey and Sunni Arab defection to HTS) in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime."
Elements of the Syrian rebels are displaying sectarian hate despite the HTS claim of unity and moderation. This pushes HTS to match the extremists or risk holier-than-thou factions to take over. This should push minorities--especially Alawites--to seek foreign protection. Is this Russia's opportunity to keep key bases?
Russia's influence expands in Georgia's government. They are deeply bought to ignore Russia's defeat in Syria and loss of influence in nearby Armenia. Many Georgians are protesting the push to return to the gulag.
