The Winter War of 2022 waits for winter to settle in and fears what a new American president will do about the war. As a supporter of Ukraine's fight against Russia, I'm not pessimistic. But given the stakes, those who would risk Ukraine losing because of lack of American support should remember cutting military aid would be counter-productive and increase the risk of general war in Europe. Further complicating the new year, Russia has suddenly lost an asset as Assad's security forces collapsed in the face of a rebel offensive. How will that affect Russian alliances and internal politics?
The war goes on. Different week. Same death and destruction. And another war revived in Syria less than two weeks ago, leading to the fall of Assad, briefly distracted world attention. Will there be repercussions felt in Moscow over losing their client and prized power projection asset in the eastern Mediterranean Sea? Will Russia's other allies reconsider the value of Russian support?
Escalation is not a one-way street, yet these critics ignore the bigger half of the issue – constant Russian aggression – to focus narrowly and unfairly on Ukraine.
Do read it all. Critics on the right
agree on escalation fear with Democrats who have limited our help to Ukraine. Acting on that escalation fear is a huge mistake. It is essentially adopting a "let the Wookie win" strategy.
If America cuts aid to Ukraine, a number of European NATO states will continue to supply Ukraine because they know they are on Putin's list of former vassals to bring back into Holy Mother Russia. So NATO states will continue to aid Ukraine on their own.
The problem is that it won't be as effective in quantity or quality, and so gives Russia more of a chance to win. Indeed, Russia's chance could be much higher if Ukrainian troops get discouraged and believe they are doomed with only European support. Unless Europe replaces much of American aid by purchasing American weapons and munitions for Ukraine, those European NATO states may escalate their role in the war in ways that push Putin to escalate in reality rather than in rhetoric and sabotage.
Once Russia is clashing with European NATO states overtly, you can be sure Russia will believe America is the puppet master behind the European effort despite American protests that it is trying to stay out and negotiate peace. And with that stage set, general war actually could break out.
If you think America can sit that out, you're fooling yourself. Heck, much as Hitler declared war on America after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor--pushing America into war with Germany months earlier than Congress would have decided to do so--Putin might declare war on America and attack us, feeling America will inevitably join its allies in the war.
I firmly believe keeping Russia as far east as possible reduces the cost of achieving America's long-standing objective of preventing Europe from being a platform for directly attacking America.
Again, I think Trump will find a way to sustain Ukraine without it looking like a waste of American money being given to Ukraine for no visible gain as the foundation of its policy. Helping Ukraine is vital. But so is being able to afford providing that aid. The fall of Russia's client Assad should weaken Russia's reputation in at least the short run.
I wonder if Ukraine could replicate the Syrian rebels' outreach to Christians and Druze to split them from Assad. Could Ukraine appeal to Putin's puppets in the Donbas who have bled and suffered so much attacking Ukraine? Those Donbas puppets are integrated to some extent within the Russian army. But how solid is that control?
UPDATE (Wednesday): On Substack I ask whether the Russian army will break.
UPDATE (Thursday): By 2020 the Syria multi-war had settled down in the west. Assad had endured near-defeat to win the war. But at a high cost that wrecked his military. By this month, Syria's military and people were so shaken by their costly victory that they didn't have the will to fight even against enemies with reason to be brutal in victory.
Early in the Winter War of 2022 I speculated that after Russia won a partial victory by weight of numbers, the cost of winning might deter Russia from renewing the war later. I looked to the brief Winter War of 1939-1940 when Russia invaded Finland as a potential model. Does Assad's fate give Putin cause to worry about the effects of even a declared victory at high cost in Ukraine?
UPDATE (Thursday) What is Russia going to do? Invade Ukraine and kidnap and brainwash Ukrainian children?
Russia said on Wednesday that Ukraine had struck a military airfield on the Azov Sea with six U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles, a move that could prompt Moscow to launch another experimental intermediate-range hypersonic missile at Ukraine.
Nearly three years after Russia marched into Ukraine expecting little resistance, the Russians are still apparently shocked that Ukraine fights back.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War, including the revived Syria multi-war, in this post.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
