China is looking at the Winter War of 2022 for lessons applicable to invading Taiwan. Rather than quaking in fear at a Hellscape of drones preventing the PLA from leaping the Taiwan Strait, China may see opportunities.
In simulated Taiwan Strait scenarios, the PLA has demonstrated heavy reliance on drones to carry out phased operations culminating in precision-guided airdrops to support an amphibious invasion.
I know the Chinese are supposed to learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine that invading a country is a path to ruin, and so be deterred. But I dispute that. I figured China would seek lessons to win.
I looked at how China could work the problem by seeking not a silver bullet solution but by working on a number of means to move, support, and sustain an invasion force on Taiwan. And as an aside, I randomly found an old post where I estimated infiltration that uses different assumptions than my more recent estimate, but reassures me I am not over-estimating the potential given the rise in tourism and variations in assumptions.
If Taiwan fails in a "porcupine" Hellscape to prevent the PLA from getting ashore, I have serious doubts Taiwanese soldiers will have the will--or the weapons if the "porcupine" advocates have their way--to eject the invaders.
Pile up enough grains of sand, and you have a beachhead.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
