European states are scrambling to scrape together a "reassurance"force following a ceasefire in the Winter War of 2022. That is apparently below a "deterrence" force but above a "speed bump" force. Will we regret not inviting Ukraine into NATO while Russia's military is shattered?
Back in 2013, prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, I warned that we might regret our efforts to appease Russian security concerns by ruling out NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia:
I have to wonder if Russia will now feel free to pursue Anschluss with Ukraine--or at least pull off a Sudetenland victory by absorbing the more ethnic Russian eastern portions of Ukraine--knowing that Ukraine lacks bigger friends.
Ukraine might regret giving up their nuclear weapons that they inherited when the Soviet Union fragmented.
Russia tried the forcible Anschluss in its initial invasion in 2022; but is being forced to settle for the Sudetenland because its military has been decimated. Will we look back in a decade to 2025 and regret not bringing Ukraine into NATO while Russia was too weak to do more than rattle nuclear sabres?
Georgia bravely resisted Russia's 2008 invasion with substantial American help. But now Russian influence operations seem to be eroding the will to resist Russian domination.
So here we are. Russia reacted to partial successes in 2008 and 2014 by resetting and getting ready to have another go at their targets. Going big with troops in Ukraine and reverting to subversion in Georgia.
I'm thinking reassuring Ukraine is going to be hard to achieve.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Is this all the Russian Big Push can do?
UPDATE (Thursday): Russia is killing more Ukrainian civilians. To be fair, the Russians are bastards. Unless you can show that Ukraine uses its people as human shields, this is actually a violation of the rules of war.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
