The Kremlin is acutely aware that civil unrest in Russia could trigger the country’s disintegration. The most alarming hot spots that could erupt into full-scale civil conflict are Russia’s ethnic Muslim republics in the south, particularly Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan. After two bloody wars in Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, a local strongman whom the Kremlin installed as president, has been more or less keeping a lid on things in recent years. A steady flow of money and complete carte blanche for Kadyrov to run his republic as he sees fit have removed much of the incentive for fighting. But if the money were to run out, this could change.
Even more than street protests, discontent among the Russian elite could destabilize Putin’s regime. Moscow is ripe with speculation about a possible rift between Putin and Medvedev. Parts of Russia’s elite seem well aware of the risks facing the country and fear the instability that could result from the concentration of power in Putin’s hands. Some of his actions, including the energy war with Ukraine, are no longer in the interests of much of the elite, since cutting off gas to Europe also means cutting off Russian profits.
And if the elites are split, factions in the elite could side with elements of society that are unhappy with the government, giving the elites numbers on the street and giving protesters allies within the elites. If the discontented are bolstered by army personnel fired from the bloated army ranks, the numbers on the streets could be stiffened with trained leadership.
Yes indeed, disintegration is still possible in the former Soviet empire as far as I can see:
With poverty in the provinces, a military feeling abandoned, and faltering oil prices and economic problems battering the once prosperous center in Moscow, is Russia done shedding provinces? They lost Eastern Europe in the first collapse of the Soviet empire in 1989. They lost the near abroad in the second collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Is a third collapse of the Russian empire possible? Could Russia's insane focus on grabbing scraps of the Soviet Union blind them to a looming third collapse among the Russian portions of the empire?
Russia is the sick, angry man of Europe and they have no idea of their peril from within as they search for non-existent NATO plots against them.
But unlike 1989 and 1991, Russia's leaders are no longer too tired to fight to retain their empire. They've already shown they want to get back the territory of the Soviet Union--if not the Soviet empire yet. If threatened with further fracturing, I'd guess violence will rage across Russia.
Unlike the quiet losses of empires in 1989 and 1991, will the threat of a third collapse risk the use of nuclear weapons by a paranoid Russian leadership determined not to lose the Russian empire that currently stretches from Eastern Europe to the Pacific?
Will Russia return to the days when it was purely a European country? And what kind of wreckage will we see if this happens?
