I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: "The End of the Russian Decline Era"
In case you missed it on Substack: "Red Storm Writhing"
In case you missed it on Substack: "The M10 Future Burned-Out Hulk is the Holy Roman Empire of Tanks"
In case you missed it on Substack: "Distracted By the Shiny Object"
I'm skeptical Iran will agree to a deal that creates a serious obstacle to getting nuclear weapons. But right now all I ask is that a new deal be an actual signed, official document, unlike whatever the Hell the original awful deal was. Have a super sparkly day.
Wait. What? "Western negotiators prioritized nuclear and missiles restrictions ..." Not they didn't. Iran's enrichment was just in voluntary output and not capabilities. As for the ballistic missiles that Iran obviously has ... .
I worry that reports that Russia attacks without armored vehicles just means Russia is accumulating them to concentrate them on one area of the front.
Explain to me why Musk, who has spaceships and satellites, is not the man to advise Trump on the top Air Force general.
CRS report to Congress on the Marine Littoral Regiment.
Saying Trump is purging officer corps like Stalin did is wrong. Stalin purged good officers who weren't loyal communists; America's senior officers were already purged of war fighters; and the current purge is focused on getting rid of officers with too many substitutes for victory.
China actually landed briefly on Sandy Cay (Tiexian Reef). The Philippines is doing its own sovereignty tourism in the region. The Philippines needs to build outposts before China lands to stay.
CENTCOM says it has degraded Houthi capabilities. There are limits to an air campaign.
The British carrier strike group heading to the Pacific will embark with the largest 5th generation air wing. American super carriers will do that eventually.
The Navy waved at China in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
China is working on drone dominance. I suspect the Winter War of 2022 spoiled their planned surprises.
The rise of Islamist terrorism since the 1970s has forced many Arabs to recognize "that we have met the enemy and they are us." Islam must be reformed to save the normals from the crazies. Then maybe Westerners won't be collateral damage through Islamist deadly performance art over here.
Meanwhile in the Communist Paradise® in the Caribbean Sea. The rose-colored glasses are still revealed by counting shanties as homes! "Counting urban squatters and shanty town dwellers, homelessness is virtually nonexistent."
Non-US defense spending: "NATO nations boosted their collective spending on defence by around $120 billion in 2024 from the previous year, with the 32-strong alliance’s total outlay estimated to have been around $1.3 trillion." Russia made this. Strategery.
Yes, ships without trained crews are just targets. But perhaps we're getting ahead of ourselves on assuming the Navy can build ships given recent history.
Trump increased the trans-Atlantic NATO rift? Oh, please. Stop that. Just breathe, people.
Russia and India are friends with limits. India needs Russian weapons and Russia needs India as a counter-weight to China. But Russian production is needed to rebuild; and its deeper vassal status under China may make it harder to arm India. I had hopes for India's ties to Russia. Now? Don't know.
Broadly accurate absent a collapse: "In the Ukraine war, the military reality is that neither the invader, Russia, nor the defender, Ukraine, has achieved its stated goals." To be fair, Russia hasn't achieved its stated goal so far. The terms of "peace" matter.
The EU will destroy Europe if it can rule it: "Brussels, prime mover of the continent’s decline[.]"
Canada's Liberal party won the election. Trump should not have mocked Canada. That was foolish. But 100 days ago Canadians knew the Liberals had wrecked Canada. A serious country would have voted to fix their country rather than hold their breath until Trump goes away. I like Canada. But FFS.
Peaked China: "China is running out of people, new births and Chinese willing to get married. The population is shrinking and is now somewhere between 800 and 1200 million." I've been on this for a long time.
Developments in and around the Korean peninsula.
How many illegal aliens from China are CCP agents? They could commit sabotage. But could they add much to hypersonic missile attacks from space or cyber-attacks? Not dismissing the threat, mind you.
Was unusual electric grid activity in Britain the second incident after the Spain blackout in the chance-coincidence-enemy activity continuum?
Money could flow to the Navy for shipbuilding. Are the shipyards sufficient? Can the Navy design ships and manage construction without FUBARing the entire thing?
Philippine, Australian, and American forces practiced defending on the beaches.
The U.S. and South Korea practiced responding to a nuclear attack.
India is buying 26 naval versions of the French Rafale for India's carrier aviation.
Marines are finally getting NMESIS anti-ship missiles. Now work on the big problem.
The author says Haiti should not be ignored: "A coalition of criminal gangs is close to capturing Haiti’s beleaguered capital of Port-au-Prince." Let them? Many decades of paying attention to the crisis de jour has achieved nothing. America's interest is preventing a refugee deluge into Florida.
Putin doesn't want peace. He'll only want temporary peace to save his own skin if his military collapses.
Congress is willing to fund Army medium-range ballistic missiles for ground and naval targets.
Plentiful and affordable energy is the foundation of our economic strength.
It could get way worse: "France no longer feels like a safe country. It feels like a savage one."
Finally: "Taiwan is bolstering its deterrence posture through whole-of-society defense resilience drills, involving civilians in readiness activities in part to raise confidence in national defense and drawing on European and Japanese models in the process."
Are masses of small drones revolutionizing warfare when we're still early in the game? "Tactics and techniques are also evolving as Ukraine and Russia both experiment with new tactics, techniques, and drone designs." Important? I think so. Revolutionary? I'm doubtful.
We remember our code-breaking success in World War II. I never read that Japan had our codes, had good signals intelligence, and we never discovered Japan's undersea communication cables to their island perimeter. Enemies try to win, oddly enough.
Troubles with Russia's mobilization bureaucracy. Which is not to say brute force couldn't "solve" problems in the short run.
British aircraft struck Houthi targets.
Japan and the Philippines are working on two defense pacts to resist China.
Romania will buy an additional Patriot air defense system.
Marines want aerial supply drones for their island SIF outposts.
The Michigan Air National Guard contingent at Selfridge will get F-15EX fighters to replace retiring A-10s. When I worked for the state legislature, I wrote a number of resolutions defending the base against the possibility of closing it. I look forward to them flying over my home on the way to Michigan Stadium.
Marines got a microwave anti-drone weapon. How much will it cost to harden small drones from that?
Marines want small boats capable of rough waters in littorals for reconnaissance.
American troops on the Mexico border will get weapons to shoot down drug cartel drones.
Marines want anti-drone weapons on a variant of the Amphibious Combat Vehicle.
Thoughts on the fall of South Vietnam 50 years ago. Technology-based shock and awe won't alone win a war; but nuanced gradual escalation to send signals will most assuredly lose a war. Going home by Christmas is a delusion.
Concessions to Russia won't split it from China. Indeed. Russia should offer concessions to the West for it to accept Russia. Only fear of Chinese aggression is a solid basis for Russia changing sides.
China seeks to undermine America's presence on Palau.
A defense of America's super carrier fleet. I offer a qualified defense of some carrier missions.
A proposal to bolster the US Coast Guard.
So what's up with Algeria's security situation?
Putin is stripping Russia's regions of their powers.
An IMEC trade corridor from Europe to India through Israel and Saudi Arabia?
Rebuilding the borders of the Roman Empire for energy?
Vietnam fell fifty years ago to a mechanized North Vietnamese offensive. It was an ugly military victory thrown away by ugly partisan politics. Yet it had strategic effect rarely recognized.
Don't blink! Here comes the SR-72. It sounds like a combat capability is envisioned, too. For a variant, I assume.
The Army is working on a plan to reduce its bureaucracy. Idle minds are the Devil's workshop, eh?
This should be the foundation of the Pacific pivot: "The Trump administration argues NATO countries should be more responsible for their own defense, a concern that predates even Trump’s first term." Rubio said America is committed to NATO. NATO--not the EU--is the foundation of Europe's defense.
If increased American security ties with Saudi Arabia has led it to lower oil prices, this will help deny both Iran and Russia income needed for their aggressive actions that hurt American interests. A lot depends on whether the price goes below America's minimum to produce oil, eh?
Will France and Germany again team up to drive Europe's strategic policies? It once made sense. Weaker France provides cover for--and so guides--German rearmament, given lingering memories of 20th century German wars of expansion. But Russian aggression means Germany no longer needs a French "beard".
America is already losing the cold war with China? That seems grossly premature and pessimistic.
The communists had to destroy Venezuela to save their regime: "For over two decades, Venezuela has been trapped in a slow-motion collapse — economic, social and democratic."
Global warming: Palestinian Edition. Tip to Instapundit.
Can America fix its shipbuilding with ties to allied shipbuilders?
A hard carrier maneuver should not have led to a plane falling overboard.
The headline is damning. The Army plans a big parade on the president's birthday. Birthdaygate! Of course, the day coincides with both Flag Day and the Army's 250th birthday.
The U.S. sent F-16s from boneyard storage to Ukraine for spare parts.
Space Force will get its own special forces component. Please, please, please call it SMOD.
The UGV the Marines want is similar to the Army model.
Is a revolt brewing in Britain? The British thought they'd successfully revolted against their masters with Brexit. But local tyrants stepped up nicely. Once more unto the breach, dear friends.
America must reject EU extraterritoriality over Americans. It's just the extension across the Atlantic of EU policy to strangle Europeans. You know my view on the EU.
The prophets of American doom are wrong: "America’s continent-spanning empire is more than MAGA or its enemies in the liberal establishment. Its power derives from the American people’s energy, their entrepreneurship, and unwavering willingness to try something new." Breathe, people.
Oh? "As Navy prioritizes Middle East, China encircles Taiwan[.]" So the advice is to sail away from fighting the active threat to observe the potential threat? Not exactly original advice.
I haven't heard much about devastating Russian glide bombing in recent months. I assumed it was just routine and not newsworthy. But apparently, Ukraine electronic warfare has defeated them; and their own glide bombs are working.
The Army cancelled the M10 Booker. My Substack essay was well timed.
France wants to keep its little Indian Ocean islands.
Figuring out how to use the new weapons and systems used in Ukraine is the key to exploiting tank capabilities--however tanks evolve--that drones cannot replace: "While drones rule the battlefield, tanks still operate, but cautiously and with special nets to protect against drone attacks."
Ukraine used USVs to shoot down a couple Russian fighter aircraft. That's a nice boutique capability. But until they can scale it up and endure Russian counter-measures, it's not a war changer.
