I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: "Crossing the Tumen River Bridge to the Other Side"
In case you missed it on Substack: "Victory Through Tiny Air Power"
In case you missed it on Substack: "Knocking Down the Swarms at Sea"
In case you missed it on Substack: "What Part of 'Super Power' is Unclear?"
The mistake the U.S. and the Philippines made was probably inviting Chuck Norris to observe the SINKEX. The poor little patrol craft scuttled itself under his withering glare.
Drones, SAMs, and tanks in Ukraine.
Assuming Western sanctions remain: "Ukraine may not win its war with Russia, but the Russians are headed for defeat, even after a cease-fire or peace settlement." And assuming China doesn't step up. Still, Russia has an escape hatch.
Trump may have again threatened to take Greenland by force, but if you think he meant from Denmark rather than from Chinese dominance, you are hallucinating. Breathe, people.
South Korea exercised its maritime power in both the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan.
While I reject the implied precision of the number, Russia is certainly slowing down at a higher cost: "Last year was the deadliest for Russian forces since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine: at least 45,287 people were killed."
Israel intends to capture and hold all of Gaza. Hamas could end Gazan misery by surrendering.
Huh: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine had not arisen and that he hopes it will not." Putin hopes he won't need them because who knows if they work?
Marine helicopter fires very long range Red Wold modular multi-role weapon. Helicopters are becoming fast indirect artillery assets, using distance and terrain as protection against enemy air defenses.
Single source rejected: "An Army two-star general has told staff that the service expects to halt work on its embattled Robotic Combat Vehicle (RCV) program[.]" Not ready for prime time.
Delivering firepower firstest with the mostest. In many ways I see small suicide drones as slow, loitering artillery shells. So an evolutionary rather than revolutionary change.
It annoys me when writers insist you can't comment on a region if you haven't visited that region. But your view through a straw on your week-long visit provides limited insights. I've lived in Michigan all my life yet I'd never claim to be the expert on what goes on here.
Things are catching fire in Iran. Why? Israel? America? Accidents? Resistance? Hell, Ukraine? Iran is part of Russia's weapons supply, after all.
Is Romania killing democracy there? Or is the EU wearing a Romanian glove doing it?
WTAF? Special Operations Command wants a role in securing ... defense industry supply chains?
Oh, supply and tempo will align: "Despite U.S. arms makers’ efforts to increase production capacity, they cannot match the pace of combat expenditure." Tempo will slow to match supply.
The new Sentinel ICBM can't cheaply adapt the existing Minuteman III silos. $$
The Navy and Naval War College have begun a series of wargames for Europe scenarios. No specifics but I assume they include sweeping the Russians from the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Barents Sea. And then landing troops on the appropriate exposed shore.
Japan extensively refitted an American "warship"--a first. That's a nice peacetime addition. But defending those shipyards from Chinese missiles and bombers may be a problem.
Somebody is attacking Russian tankers in the Mediterranean to damage--not sink--them. I'd suspect Ukraine but mere damage reminds me of CIA sea mine efforts designed to damage ships trading with communist Nicaragua in the Cold War.
Small drones are nice but can't replace artillery. Preaching to the TDR choir, he is.
Resuming the path of reusable hypersonic testing forged by the X-15.
Israel warns Hamas that when Trump completes his Middle East tour that Israel will go hammer and tongs at Hamas on the ground. So Hamas has a deadline.
From the "Well, Duh" files: China learns about American military capabilities by observing American military operations.
Will the Abraham Accords open the way for a better Middle East? If it forces Iran to retreat to its borders, yes. Treating the Palestinians as the Queen of the Victim Prom certainly hasn't worked.
Elite British SAS troops spearheaded a raid that stopped a planned major Iranian terror attack inside Britain. My question is whether Russia subcontracted their long-threatened attack on Britain.
The Houthi keep effing around: "Israel struck multiple sites in Yemen’s capital Sanaa Tuesday, including the main airport, which the Israeli military said has now been 'fully' disabled."
Never look too closely at how the sausage is made.
Turkey and Israel are on a collision course over Syria. Sure. But the speed matters, no?
Well that's fascinating: "Not long ago, anyone could comb through a wide range of official data from China. Then it started to disappear." Still, most wasn't actually accurate.
Oman brokered a ceasefire between the Houthi and America? To focus on Iran?
The U.S. sent a couple B-52s to Diego Garcia.
Regarding the canceled M10--which I had long criticized--a reader noted the Army had basically recreated the T-72. Which would have been a lot cheaper to purchase.
Do Xi Jinping's ongoing purge of senior PLA officers mean he can't trust his officers to go to war by 2027? Hell, I worry the purges are because they might override his order not to go to war.
Sixth Fleet dispatched its command ship to West Africa for a regional exercise to combat sea-going criminal gangs. You want to pivot away from Europe? I give you pivoting away from Europe.
Lithuania will emplace anti-tank mines on its borders with Russia and Belarus. This old school weapon isn't flashy but it works. Think of it as a small, autonomous, stationary drone for marketing.
There seems to be something wrong with our bloody Truman strike group today. Just where does the buck stop?
Is the new XM7 replacement for the M4A1 “unfit for use as a modern service rifle"? I admit I was skeptical about the need for more range based on Afghanistan experience. But I've read other positive reviews. Not in my lane to opine.
Russia evades computer sanctions enough to continue its cyber-war on the West.
Russia has ramped up defense production better than smaller Ukraine; and much better than the Europeans. The West is lucky that Ukraine is buying time for the West to get its production act together.
Squeeze Cuba: "Recent commercial satellite imagery shows new construction underway at a known Cuban signals intelligence (SIGINT) site near Havana, long rumored to have ties to China." I wonder if the site could track B-2s taking off from Missouri.
Did Trump do "Europe"--that is the EU--a favor? Meh. Every president doing A or anti-A is an excuse to strengthen the EU.
Germany is a growing problem: "Would you label 'democratic' a country that eliminates an unwelcome opposition party, let alone one that enjoys the support of around a quarter of all voters?" Germany's rulers are edging toward that. You doubt Vance was correct?
I received a RAND opinion piece that notes: "Russia and North Korea seek to build a multipolar world that is not dominated by the West or China." Both border China. The Tumen River bridge is significant.
Is this how we'll eject PLA troops from South China Sea land "features"? "Special operations forces from the U.S. Navy, Army and Air Force are
operating throughout the Philippines and the South China Sea for
Balikatan 2025."
Mowing the jihadi grass in Somalia.
Okay--but be careful on this issue. Human soldiers aren't obsolete since the invention of the crossbow. New counter-measures, tactics, and procedures will blunt small drone dominance.
It's kind of interesting that Trump wants to celebrate winning World War II, which signaled the start of the Cold War era while he is transitioning the world from the Era of Russian Decline to the Great Power Competition Era.
Why Russia needed a short and glorious victory over Ukraine.
When in the course of human events, eh?
The Army expands its navy's logistics capabilities in the Pacific.
Just as there was never an Israeli siege of Gaza since Israel withdrew in 2005, there is no famine during the current war. Tip to Instapundit.
More like "friends of steal" if you ask me.
You can move missiles as well as milk on that network: "the United States, Australia, India, and Japan launched the Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network to "leverage shared logistics capabilities in the Indo-Pacific to support civilian response to natural disasters more rapidly and efficiently across the region."
The new Pope Leo XIV is the first American pope of the Catholic Church. No idea what that means for the Church.
The U.S. depleted the Houthi anti-ship arsenal with its sustained air campaign. But the ceasefire is likely just a chance for the Houthi to reload. will America use that time more productively?
France and Germany are restoring defense ties. I get why weaker France wants to yoke the German oxen to their wagon. But Russian aggression means Germany no longer needs the cover of France to rearm.
PLAN grey hulls join the fray: "Two Chinese Navy frigates and a China Coast Guard cutter harassed a Philippine Navy patrol ship in the South China Sea near Scarborough Shoal on Monday in what Manila described as 'aggressive and unsafe maneuvers.'" One accident or overly aggressive captain ...
Can't disagree: "Effective missile defense must begin well before a missile leaves the ground." Indeed, I actively agree.
Ukraine traces fiber-optic FPV drones back to their source--and attacks them. I very recently mentioned the need to do that.
Unless Ukraine can mount a big attack, the Russians will cope even with Ukrainian drones with the range to interdict Russian supply vehicles deeper than 6 miles from the front. And the cost of the longer-range drones goes up.
Iran's Plan B in Africa to destroy Israel: "The Houthis assist local Islamic terrorist groups in Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia."
Strategypage dismisses the effect of the Houthi anti-shipping campaign. But the toll isn't measured by ships sunk. It's in ships diverting to a safer but more expensive route around the Cape of Good Hope--weakening Egypt by cutting Suez Canal fees, no?
Can Syria's new government protect minorities? Hell no. Even if some at the top want to do so to pretend to be moderate, the masses of jihadis and jihadi-adjacent below them would rather kill.
Is Canadian foreign policy going dangerously rogue?
A Pakistani analysts says Pakistan's support for terrorists who murder inside India's territory isn't the real reason India struck back. No word if the Illumaniti are involved.
I hope this is true: "America is breaking China’s influence in the U.S. backyard." And if true, why is it suddenly happening only this year?
Iran has an undisclosed nuclear weapons facility that began operating right around the time the horrible Iran nuclear deal was created.
The Marines need Australia as the hub to project air power around Southeast Asia.
Did China peak before one billion people? "A major fault in the official population figure is duplicate registration. Hundreds of millions may have been counted twice, due to their rural identity remaining after they moved to an urban area." And other possibilities. Tip to Instapundit.
This is a nice summary of NATO funding and a defense of the value of NATO to American security. I've addressed a number of those values.
If Russia is preparing to face off against China, this is expected: "Belousov explicitly identified large-scale Russian military reforms as preparations for a future conflict with NATO as Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev threatened European countries that support Ukraine." Just saying.
The sanctions move and counter-move game.
Doesn't anybody find it weird that the Coast Guard is seeking heavy icebreakers for Arctic service when the smart people keep telling us that the Arctic will soon be ice-free? Seriously, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
I hope Europeans can: "French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged 'robust' security guarantees for war-torn Ukraine as part of efforts to secure a peace deal amid ongoing Russian aggression." Russia can never be sure America won't step in to help.
Oh? "The EU will suffer in any US trade deal[.]" That would be called a feature rather than a bug.
If this helps the Saudis discredit and marginalize Islamism that fuels jihadi terrorism, make it so: "The Kingdom receives President Trump at a defining moment. It has been nearly a decade since the launch of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s audacious socio-economic transformation plan."
Iran won't negotiate seriously because America insists Iran not get nuclear weapons?? That is backassward. Negotiations will fail to stop Iran from getting nukes because Iran will pursue nukes with or without a nuclear deal.
The sanctions campaign against Russia. Both sides try to win.
Murdering captured soldiers in Ukraine. This happens in any war. It is better publicized with so many drones over the battlefield.
