As long as Ukraine holds out against Russian military and covert attacks, the Baltic region is NATO's main front.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a wake-up call for states in the Baltic Sea region. It overturned threat perceptions among state leaders who had underestimated the strategic situation and rearranged the region’s political composition, with military strategic relevance.
This included Sweden and Finland joining the alliance in reaction to Russian aggression.
The author (naturally) focuses on the naval aspect. I don't think Russian covert aggression, overt harassment, or limited anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) weapons negate the fact that the Baltic Sea is a figurative NATO lake. But NATO can't take it for granted and must control it quickly in a war lest Russia make ground gains that NATO can't roll back on NATO's main front.
Yes, Russia is waging a subliminal war on NATO. And at the high end, it could be quite severe as I also wrote about in Army magazine.
If it goes to open warfare, it is possible that Russia could plow forward through NATO's improving but still small ground force defenses--perhaps controlling the Suwalki Gap on the Poland-Lithuania border--and dare NATO to counter-attack. Then NATO will need to control the Baltic Sea to operate against Russia's flank.
And if NATO's fights to hold the Baltic States rather than just have a tripwire deterrent force, that could lead to disaster if Russia has full use of Belarus.
Fortunately, with Finland and Sweden in NATO, the alliance can distract Russian power away from the main front. And Russia has its own vulnerable position in Kaliningrad.
UPDATE: Germany highlights its role in Lithuania in holding off the Russians:
The reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank with German troops in Lithuania would help defend the military alliance against "any aggression," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday.NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.
NOTE: The map is from NATO.
