As we approach the 80th anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany, let us recall that it took the Red Army about 30 months from the start of their Stalingrad counteroffensive in November 1942 to capture Berlin. And that was after rebuilding their army that the German invasion destroyed. About 26 months after Russia invaded Ukraine with a surprise offensive, Russia has not advanced too much beyond the pre-war line of contact, has not destroyed the Ukrainian army, and has not rebuilt the Russian army wrecked in the first year of war.
The war goes on. ISW assesses Russia’s performance so far this year:
Russian gains along the frontline have slowed over the last four months, but Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the casualty rate Russian forces sustained during a period of intensified advances between September and December 2024.
But it is largely just killing without much serious happening on the land front. Unless one side's military just collapses as it tires of dying, this is pretty much the situation:
Russia cannot occupy Ukraine, Ukraine cannot force the Russians out, and the negotiations must acknowledge as much. Putin will say he does not need peace, and Europe will be outraged that America admits the inadmissible – that the war is over. But this is all posturing. Those who want the war to continue unless their terms are met are bluffing a busted flush. The war is over, except for the killing.
It is a relief that Ukraine has decimated Russia's army. Russia isn't unleashing its tanks to head farther west any year soon. Europeans now have the time to rebuild their military power if they don't fall back into a security coma when the Winter War of 2022 is suspended.
I can wish that Ukraine could drive Russia back to retake significant amounts of critical ground that could block a renewed Russian offensive in a few years. I would really like Ukraine to liberate significant ground north of Crimea. But Ukraine can't do that if Russia's army can still fight.
So what am I to make of Putin's three-day ceasefire offer?
Putin announced the ceasefire in Moscow to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union and its allies in World War II.
Sure, let's contrast what a real Red Army backed by willing lemmings and ample American military and economic support could do in World War II with how Putin's ground forces are stepping on rakes all over Ukraine today--and for a long time, inside Russia.
A cynic might say Putin simply doesn't want Ukrainian strategic attack drones falling on the Red Square parade during the anniversary.
Yet don't think Russia will go back to normal if the war is "ended." I fully believe that an end to the war along current lines will lead Russia to develop (another) "stabbed in the back" theory about NATO conspiring to deprive Russia of victory:
Does the West need to provide Russia with a generous "off ramp" to end its war on Ukraine? No. engineering a ceasefire that "saves" Ukraine by giving Russia some of Ukraine will eventually be described as a Western betrayal that denied Russia's glorious military all of Ukraine.
Russia should pivot east. But the clue bat beating in this war may have inflicted soft tissue damage on Russia's elites.
Have a super sparkly era of great power competition.
UPDATE (Wednesday): The idea that the two wars are a comparison rather than a contrast is bizarre:
Russian officials also appear to be leveraging the story of the Second World War (referred to as the Great Patriotic War in Russia) to dismiss Russia's early failures in the war in Ukraine and present the false image that Russian victory in Ukraine is as inevitable as the Soviet triumph over Germany became at the end of World War II.
But you do you, Shoigu.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Putin will literally hug Xi Jinping as his own personal human shield:
The Chinese leader is set to arrive in Moscow on Wednesday for a four-day state visit, where he’ll deepen “mutual trust” with Putin, according to Beijing, and attend activities commemorating 80 years since the Allied forces’ World War II victory over Nazi Germany.
UPDATE (Saturday): The Winter War of 2022 went off script:
Putin did not discuss the battlefield situation in Ukraine during Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 8 and 9 but claimed that all of Russia supports Russian servicemembers fighting in Ukraine. Russian forces have not seized any significant towns in Ukraine since the seizure of Avdiivka in February 2024, and the only mid-sized settlement that Russian forces have seized in Ukraine since December 2024 is Velyka Novosilka (pre-war population of 5,000).
Oops.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: The photo is from the Soviet capture of Berlin.
