The war drags on as Russia and Ukraine pretend they can do this all day.
The war goes on, on the cusp of its fourth summer fighting season. Novel things like a Ukrainian drone boat using missiles to shoot down a Russian fighter plane are fleeting excitement interrupting the steady flow of blood on the land front. Yet both sides have places on the long front where they are making small territorial gains. What that means for the summer is unclear.
I've been saying for at least half a year that the Russians have erected a Potemkin Village of indifference to their heavy casualties and huge equipment losses. Not to mention pretending that their economy is just fine. Or that it's really cool to sink deeper into vassal status under the China colossus that looms over Russia's Far East. Vance says the Russians are asking for too much. Biden says Trump is appeasing Russia, but America is really trying to let Russia hide their defeat.
And I've long doubted Ukraine is really willing to suffer the casualties to push the Russians out of all the territory that Russia has captured since 2014. Even if the West gave Ukraine every weapon it desires, the willingness to die on that Russian-held hill is gone after more than three years of war and suffering. Ukraine says it is outrageous to suggest the obvious. But there it is. Still, America hardly wants to reward Russia for stiff-arming our diplomacy by letting Putin conquer Ukraine.
For now, both sides--and to be clear, the Russians are the bad guys and the Ukrainians the (not perfect) good guys--pretend they will keep going until they win it all. So to Hell with compromise, they say. Especially Russia, which has forfeited as good a deal as an aggressor could get from Trump in favor of relying on his military to get it all. You can argue that even a bad peace is necessary for Ukraine. But Putin is forfeiting a partial interim win and a chance to reload.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
But as time goes on, worry that the other side can outlast them will change minds--perhaps too late to do anything about it. And Putin's paranoia about his allies is no doubt an added factor that undermines his reliance on fighting to the last Russian provincial cog.
I like having a hostile Russia as far east as possible. But I'd like a friendly Russia--or more accurately a Russia that shares our common foe--pivoting east to face China.
I'd like Russia ejected from all of Ukraine and punished for its brutal aggression. But I'd settle for a sovereign, strong, and friendly Ukraine that is smaller than it was in 2022; and a Russia unwilling to attack Ukraine again because Russia has much bigger problems elsewhere.
Business before pleasure in foreign affairs, I say.
UPDATE (Tuesday): This Russian deployment doesn't seem ominous. It seems desperate:
Russia has reportedly deployed a largely ceremonial regiment of the Federal Security Service (FSB) to the frontline in Donetsk Oblast, likely in an effort to generate fear of more rapid future Russian advances.
It's a ceremonial unit. Deploying it may be a threat. But using it risks decimating a high-profile symbol of the regime. And its lack of combat training makes it likely it will be destroyed as easily as the rest of Russia's ground forces.
As I wrote from the start, I've expected Russia to crack first--but I won't dare predict that. I think since Russia has the initiative it is less vulnerable to the effects of its ground forces cracking than Ukraine.
So I try not to get my hopes up when I read this:
Since 2024 more and more Ukrainian generals and military analysts have been predicting the collapse of the Russian military by mid-2025. Now their Russian counterparts are agreeing that the end is near. One Russian general was so dismayed at this that he killed himself. Increasingly Russian men are not just evading military service, but helping those in the military to walk away.
Strategypage has long been optimistic. But I hate to elevate that analysis because I want to believe it.
Yet I recall that in the Iran-Iraq War, Iran's ground forces broke first despite a 3:1 population advantage, the fervor of Shia Islamist infantry, and KIA "only" twice that of Iraq's losses.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
