I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: A Crude Counter-measure to Drones
In case you missed it on Substack: Does the Navy Force Structure Match its Doctrine?
In case you missed it on Substack: We Will Detect Chinese Preparations to Invade Taiwan
In case you missed it on Substack: The Tip of the Spear is Not the Entire Spear
The Army must transform as it has in the past. Indeed. But don't mistake as solutions the technological delusions the Army had to reject to transform in the past. Maintain the foundation of combined arms fighting and examine the lessons of Ukraine for the Army's needs, as I cautioned in Army magazine.
It takes a village to raise cannon fodder.
Japan is shifting automobile production from China to India.
Boy, Islamist hate escalated quickly in Britain: "The crowd with the blood of Jews in its nostrils flew many flags
tonight: that of Palestine, that of Lebanon, that of Kashmir. One that
was notable by its absence was the flag of Great Britain[.]"(tip to Instapundit):
I suspect the judge wrongly rejected the president's use of the National Guard to protect federal property in cities that fail to adequately protect them and their lawful activities.
If American threats to use military force prompts Nigeria to protect its Christians from Islamic violence, good. And "invasion" talk is silly. And Al Jazeera just says the killings are "right-wing" allegations rather than the ongoing murderous ethnic cleansing that has made most of the Islamic world Infidel-free.
Sh*t got real: "The Philippine Marine Corps unveiled its first BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missile battery and future plans to enhance coastal defense on Friday[.]"
I doubt the Royal Navy will get much bigger. But at least its surface combatants should get more lethal individually.
Presidential tariff powers are under Supreme Court review. I suspect Trump exceeded his authority. I hoped he'd leverage better trade terms before it was struck down. Generally, I don't like tariffs. On the other hand, I'm often shocked not at what presidents do that violate the law but do what is perfectly legal.
Can the Marines evolve away from Force Design and modernize through the wreckage of that radical transformation? Of course, there is a way to keep the ground-based anti-ship support the Navy needs. In less exposed positions, of course.
Will the French National Rally break up the European Union if it takes power? Will it reject NATO? France has long been rogue or absent in NATO. As for the EU, Stop. Don't. Come back:
Does Iran's Tehran problem represent what is coming for all of Iran?
Israeli strikes on Hezbollah shouldn't inspire fear of a new war. Hezbollah rearming to fight again and undermine Lebanon should inspire fear of a new war.
The West still won't admit what drives Islamist terror. Sadly--and suicidally--the "Why do they hate us?" questions always end with the same answer in too much of the West--"We deserve their hate."
Insurrection with foreign assistance? Tip to Instapundit. You can say a lot of stupid things under our Constitution. I'm not sure what bringing in foreign actors to support your "talk" implies.
How gangs go from a law enforcement problem to an insurrection problem: "A Latin street gang in Chicago is reportedly telling its members to shoot federal immigration officers on sight, escalating the already highly dangerous and volatile situation in Chicago." Big--if true. But be careful out there.
America is "chipping away" at Russian influence in Central Asia. Just don't turn it over to China. And maybe if Russia pulls it Putin out of its buttocks and stops attacking Ukraine and demonizing NATO, our role could be helping Russia resist China.
To boldly go: "There might be solid tactical reasons to put Space Force personnel in orbit, argues a new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies." Bring on SMOD!
When you think about a "calculated" risk approach to defense acquisition, consider the risk we've had with the old approach that has given us cost-overruns and long develop times that have spent money without getting assets in a timely manner--or at all.
The persistent accusation that Trump's foreign policy is isolationist is just wrong. Mind you, some of his supporters are. As are some on the left.
Pentagon officers: "adversaries are likely to exploit a natural flaw in artificial intelligence chatbots to inject instructions for stealing files, distorting public opinion or otherwise betraying trusted users." Indeed.
On the surface an American base in Israel to monitor a Gaza peace seems unlikely. On the other hand, it would be easier for Arab countries willing to help suppress Hamas if they operated out of an American rather than an Israeli base. [LATER: I heard that is not happening.]
When you are on a Mission from Allah, those deemed insufficiently holy are just as much an enemy as Westerners are: "As many as 200 terrorists were killed in a turf war on Sunday between rival jihadists in north-east Nigeria."
Just because the Army wrongly said super carriers are obsolete 80 years ago doesn't mean that carriers are fully relevant today. One, I reject the argument about carrier damage resilience; and two, super carriers are an asset in only one of two major missions they conduct.
Ukraine uses their Western fighter planes for knocking down Russian missiles and and attack drones.
The Houthi claim their missile attacks on Israel and Red Sea interdiction campaign is over (for now). Have the interdiction and sanctions against the supply line to Iran following Western air strikes had an effect?
Cheap drones are an interesting form of cheap strike ammunition (that has vulnerabilities that shells and rockets don't have), but they can't do everything. Here's the really high end: "A Mach-6 ISR/strike jet could compress decision cycles, pierce dense air defenses, and bridge satellites, drones, and shooters."
Russia showed off their Su-57 weapons bay fully loaded. Another super weapon?
Uh oh: "A car explosion near the historic Red Fort in India’s capital on Monday killed eight people and injured at least 19 others, police in New Delhi said." If Pakistan is behind this, adjust your pucker factor accordingly. Both have nuclear missiles.
Russia's 2016 election interference was crude, had limited appeal and reach, and wanted to sow chaos and undermine the appeal of democracy abroad. The government-owned BBC's 2024 election interference was slick disinformation that reached over 20% of Americans, seeking to defeat one candidate. Discuss.
If you wonder what the objective of Islam's murder, persecution, and ethnic cleansing of Christians around the world, recall that the modern Middle East was once the center of Christianity. Until Islamic armies swept in and began persecuting, murdering, and cleansing the Christians into oblivion.
Some time ago, I speculated on means to put small aerial drones near enemy air fields. Little did I know how easy it would be for our enemies to do that.
This seems prudent: "American Marines and soldiers are once again rucking through the Panamanian jungle, for the first time in more than two decades."
Russia's Baltic Sea fleet will lead a short but exciting life if it leaves port. And then NATO states can project power into the Baltic Sea littorals.
Plans to change the 2-man B-21 crew to have a pilot and a weapon system officer suggests a multi-mission role for the plane. That makes sense. Anti-ship capability would be extremely useful. And would there be a fighter version?
Will AI cause more chaos than benefits? I suspect that is so. An AI will need to be air-gapped, I suspect, with curated and screened information. That will make it less effective. But it will make it less vulnerable to sowing chaos by sucking in new information all the time. So advantage air gap. Tip to Instapundit.
How much advance notice do they need to defeat threats? "the U.S. Army’s Northern Command has formed an operational team to rapidly counter drone threats to military bases within the United States."
CONUS is no longer a sanctuary. So yes, critical infrastructure at home must be resilient.
Europe allowed itself to be reliant on Russian energy. Will this work now? "Britain recently sanctioned 135 oil tanker ships as part of a crackdown on Russian efforts to sell oil."
Russia is a more corrupt version of Ukraine. The West pressures Ukraine to fight it: "Ukraine's energy and justice ministers resigned on Wednesday over their alleged involvement in a sweeping corruption scandal in the country's energy sector." Ukraine needs to be much less corrupt than Russia to survive.
If being run by mullahs lets Allah do this, what use are mullahs: "President Masoud Pezeshkian has cautioned that if rainfall does not arrive by December, the government must start rationing water in Tehran."
China tightens its economic grip on Venezuela. I'm not sure if I should worry about this or laugh at China pursuing fool's gold there.
'Uge. If true. Or did China proliferate the precursor production it once provided Fentanyl cartels?
Coast Guard recruiting is booming.
Given that the IAEA was only able to inspect certain Iranian facilities, I doubt we ever knew the level of Iranian uranium enrichment.
SIGINT: "A Royal Air Force RC-135 surveillance aircraft was deployed today to monitor Russian forces in occupied Ukraine." This has long been key for Ukrainian targeting.
Even if America does nothing, we are costing broke Venezuela money it doesn't have.
Will China's next carrier be nuclear powered? More evidence that China does not plan a war with America? With due respect for the reality that intentions can change rapidly, of course.
FFS: "Pakistan’s parliament has passed a controversial amendment to its constitution that will expand the powers of the army chief and grant him lifelong legal immunity while limiting the independence of the supreme court[.]" The parasite sucks on the host even harder.
Oh? "The European Union is working to establish an intelligence unit under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen[.]" What could possibly go wrong? To be fair, people don't suppress themselves.
The military delivers aid to the Philippines after typhoons. Disaster relief is something our military does. And it is good practice for unanticipated military crises.
The EU is unhappy with Germany's planned rearmament. But as the article notes, I have doubts if Germany--or a lot of other European states--can recruit the personnel for their plans.
Taiwan upgrades its defenses. They should prepare like their lives depend on it.
Light bulb? "A recent Pentagon directive officially broadens the responsibility of irregular warfare (IW) well beyond the remit of special operations forces, in a move that former practicioners and experts said could be a significant development for America’s posture in the gray zone[.]" Well ... yeah. and hurry up.
Will China really practice on smaller targets before taking on the big mission of invading Taiwan? Sounds like it could be a comforting delusion. Remember, China needs to defeat Taiwan and only delay America to win that big mission. China might still lose, but we'll have the big war. [I might have noted this before]
The problem in Europe is the lack of an environment for innovation and not getting what they have at continental scale. For the European Union, every problem--whether real or imaginary--must be solved with more EU. FFS, America-led NATO prevents Europe from being carved up.
America and Saudi Arabia draw closer: "A strong U.S.–Saudi defense partnership helps deter hostile actors, protect shipping lanes and secure global energy supplies that sustain the world economy." Did I call it, or what?
Is America standing down in the Pacific to get China's help to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Perhaps there is a deal. But with America's Asian allies rearming, I don't see a practical difference between a "containment" strategy abandoned and a new "balance of power" strategy. Also, NATO is "weakened"??
No longer fixated on the DMZ: "Destroyers from the South Korean Navy’s new surface action formation held the first fleet-level maritime training exercise over the weekend in a demonstration of Seoul’s growing blue water naval capabilities." I noticed the shift long ago.
Any problems with Russian influence in Kazakhstan are the fault of Putin for destroying Russia's military, economy, and reputation in his nearly four-year-old invasion of Ukraine. Chess master, my butt.
Huh: "An Iranian man who set himself on fire after municipal workers shut down his family's food stand has died from his injuries, prompting the country’s president to order an investigation." This is how the Arab Spring started in Tunis.
Germany seeks to overcome reluctance to enroll in Germany's military.
Define "us" please: "Describing President Donald Trump as a 'barbarian' who 'wants to frighten us,' Petro, a former Marxist revolutionary ... , called the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean 'undoubtedly an aggression against Latin America.'" As one would expect, we got more of what we rewarded.
Whether or not the PLA Navy is strong, it looks strong. I've long said China's military is not as good as its shiny image projects. The question is whether it is good enough for its mission. Could the mission be looking strong?
The State Department designated four European Antifa groups as foreign terrorist organizations. We'll see how the ratlines across the Atlantic are followed. Tip to Instapundit.
I suspect that solving the problems of AWACs-type aircraft vulnerability in favor of the so-called safety of space is an illusion. The U.S. should not have abandoned support for the NATO E-7 aircraft program.
Not nice on ice: "Canada’s domestic spy agency says Russia and China have a “significant intelligence interest” in Canada’s Arctic, and are targeting both the country’s government and its private sector." Just don't stink on ice, Canada.
This analysis is silly. Iran's pursuit of nukes is the cause of Western hopes for regime change--not the protection against it. And nukes aren't going to deter Israeli one-off strikes on those who host terrorists--Israeli nukes deter their nuclear weapons threats. If the Saudis want nukes, it's due to worry about Iran.
The mouse that roared on Russian oil export sanctions: "Norway is an enthusiastic enforcer of these sanctions because it has a growing list of complaints about Russian misbehavior."
Fingers crossed: "Internet chatter about what was going on in Ukraine made it more difficult for Russia to obtain soldiers."
South China Sea: "Marine Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadron (VMU) 1, an Arizona-based unit formation equipped with MQ-9A Reapers, was sent to the Southeast Asian nation to support 'Philippine regional maritime security[.]'"
Does North Korea's commitment of troops to fight alongside Russia mean North Korea would help China fight Taiwan (and its allies)? I'd say perhaps, but if Russia and North Korea are aligning to balance China, no.
Mali: "Advancing in Ukraine, Russia Troops Are Losing Ground to Al-Qaeda in Africa[.]" LOL. That "defeat" is a feature and not a bug. "Failure" sends migrants north to destabilize Europe. And Russia earns money while doing that.
Can the West decisively squeeze Iran's mullah regime now?
I'm relieved India wasn't behind that: "Pakistan has arrested four members of an Afghan cell over their alleged involvement in a deadly suicide bombing in its capital Islamabad earlier this week[.]"
China knows if they can bully America into dialing back arms sales to Taiwan, few will defy China.
Russia creates Unmanned Systems Forces service to control all types of drones. Seems like it would be better to have air, naval, and ground services control their own drones to better integrate them. But sure, there's a danger in that of the new weapons getting ignored.
Despite my judgment that small drones are exploiting a counter-measures vacuum that will be filled, Ukraine needs them right now: "Each month nearly 400,000 drones are built in Ukrainian factories or home workshops." And Ukraine needs its own defense industry to avoid import reliance.
Cognitive warfare. Is it just me, or have we just slapped on a marketing label to the age-old practice of propaganda?
Oh? "U.S. lawmakers are reportedly moving this week to formally establish a senior diplomatic role known as ambassador-at-large for Arctic affairs [.]" I say avoid the squishy stuff and establish POLARCOM. Also, in war the northern shipping route is easily cut at the Bering Strait, eh?
RUMORINT: "Some sources privately claim that Xi has lost real power and been sidelined. Others whisper that Xi’s health has deteriorated; the politician appearing in public, they say, is merely a lookalike, while a group of the party’s most venerable elder statesmen are actually calling the shots." Or Xi rules all.
Hmm: "Russia has launched its most modern Zircon anti-ship missile against targets in Ukraine’s Sumy region, using a weapon originally developed to counter U.S. naval forces." Real world test? Shortage of other weapons? A needed unique capability? Implicit threat to Western navies? Kitchen Sink strategy?
How much of the "division" in Latin America over American muscle flexing is from rulers that don't like us anyway? Doesn't refusal to deal with Maduro abandon allies? And if the price of muffling division is failure to defend our interests, I don't care. Still, speaking softly and wielding a big stick is probably wise.
We didn't really "bail out" Argentina, although we did help them: "The U.S. didn’t give Argentina money. It entered into a currency swap – and the U.S. has actually earned a profit on the transaction." Sounds more like we are betting on their recovery. Which we both could lose. But we want an ally's success.
Does Azerbaijan want all of Armenia more than it wants peace? Excellent question. If so, can Trump's promise of economic benefits from peace reverse that priority?
Colombia intends to buy 17 Gripen fighters from Sweden.
This video describes American efforts to pressure Russia from the south and east while Russia is self-destructively focused on pounding Ukraine in the west. This might explain my observation on this Russian effort that on the surface embraces China.
Perhaps this is transactional: "Russian plans for roughly 12,000 North Korean workers to join the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (ASEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan by the end of 2025 to work at Russia’s factory producing Shahed-type drones." But could it be more?
The mullahs don't care that Canada is "nice": "Canada's domestic spy agency this year foiled potentially lethal threats by Iran directed against people whom Tehran sees as enemies, the agency's head said in a rare speech on Thursday."
I'm going to need some new information to believe the French government suppressed information about jihadis torturing victims during the 2015 Bataclan massacre. Isn't slaughtering 130 innocents in the entire series of murder sprees enough to fight jihadis until they are no more?
China has new prototype flying wing drones/loyal wingmen for land and carrier operations.
Can AI enable and accelerate this ideal? "The armed forces that perform most efficiently follow five steps: acquire combat experience, analyze it, propose recommendations, distribute the recommendations and lessons throughout the force, and, finally, apply what has been learned throughout the forces."
I'm not worried about the Pentagon getting rid of senior officers despite some claims it hurts us--I agree we need it. And part of the problem is the sheer size. As for much of the rest of the author's claims? Not so much. More later.
A reminder that mullahs on a Mission from Allah can't be partly defeated or even mostly defeated. Alive and in power, they are relentless. Ultimately, the ideology must be discredited and marginalized in Islamic society. To support that change, make good jihadis.
Fair weather silver bullet wonder weapon: "Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s drone-based battlefield defenses in the Novopavlivka direction, highlighting Ukraine’s need for traditional weapons systems." FPV drones have not repealed combined arms warfare.
