India is stronger than Pakistan. But India wants to pivot to face the more lethal threat, China. Yet Pakistan wants to be the Big Bad, as it is the reason for the military's stranglehold on Pakistan. And China, of course, wants India properly distracted.
A new policy brief by ASPI, released today, outlines the quantitative military balance between India and Pakistan.
By the numbers, the India-Pakistan military balance is fairly favourable to India. In every year since 1956, India has outspent Pakistan on defence (in real terms) by a factor of at least 4.5—even by a factor of 10 in the most recent budget. India’s armed forces field more personnel than Pakistan’s across the board, most prominently the land forces, which field 1.2 million active-duty soldiers against Pakistan’s 560,000. ...
India enjoys naval superiority and a larger, though overstretched, air force. Pakistan, while outgunned, has shown tactical resilience. Crucially, India cannot afford to focus solely on its western neighbour.
And both have nukes. Which limits their conventional campaign objectives. India's Cold Start doctrine seems like a variation of the nuclear era "snatch and grab" strategy. Pakistan wages war with Islamist terrorists.
Yet I think the prospect of China directly intervening to help Pakistan is over-stated. Still, India still needs to do something about its overstretched air force.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: Map from The Economist.
