I've been addressing drones for a long time. There are vulnerabilities in America's military that they could exploit. But I did not think these were revolutionary. I believed the cycle of developing defenses to cope with those vulnerabilities would continue and in time the outsized impact of the new technology would fade.
Yes, drones have long been something I recognized have to be accounted for. But really?
Since 2022 air, land and naval drones have revolutionized warfare. These systems are evidence that combat robots have become an essential component of the military, without many people in or out of uniform paying a lot of attention. That's still the case, especially because the media and even many senior military and political leaders don’t fully understand the technology nor how it is implemented.
The media has been celebrating drones like magical unicorns. And while the article cites torpedoes and missiles as weapons that have already gone down the path of autonomous targeting as supporting evidence, note that torpedoes and missiles are not the wonder weapons right now. Useful, yes. Necessary, yes. But they have not made other weapons obsolete.
Naval drones are nothing so far.
Ground drones are nothing so far.
Air drones are perhaps fleetingly effective in the stalemated Ukraine war because of lack of sufficient counter-measures--so far. But advocates sound like miniature Billy Mitchells.
Drones will be useful and integrated into combined arms operations--but not revolutionary--whether on land, sea, or the air. I'll keep an mind open for space where crews add a lot of cost.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
