After a brief high-tech air campaign against Iran, punctuated by intercontinental American B-2 stealth bomber strikes on Iran's most important and best protected nuclear sites, the world returns to the mud and death of the war that won't leave the party. But you go to blog with the stalemated war you have and not the shiny air war you wish you had.
The 12-Day War (will that stick?) was waged and concluded in the time it takes Russia to organize a motorcycle assault by 9 guys who are pretty sure what the business end of their rifle is. Speaking of low-tech, bloody, stupidity:
In Mad Max fashion, Russia’s primary vehicle of choice has become the motorcycle, or the 21st-century Dragoon. A Russian soldier must drive as fast as possible with no mistakes to avoid getting hit by a drone.
While we gazed at the skies, Russia remained in its same predicament:
Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.
It will get worse. The Russian economy is collapsing because of disinvestment.
I think this is directionally correct but Russia has means to cope. For a while. I have no idea when the slow erosion accelerates and suddenly becomes apparent. Are Russian soldiers really surrendering more often? Big if true. But I'm sure Russia is erecting a Potemkin Village of strength to frighten us into giving Russia a better deal than it can get on the battlefield.
Europeans are standing up to Russia by deciding to rearm NATO and by pledging more military aid to Ukraine. America stands pleased with the increased European defense effort and is no longer discussing distancing itself from NATO and its Article V common defense clause. American surveillance and intelligence continues as does previously committed military aid. I suspect America military aid will continue even if it won't be aid because it is paid for through some mechanism on paper--and maybe in reality.
With Putin's semi-trained organ grinder nuke monkey, Medvedev, waving its nukes about, Russia talks big about its next victims. Which seems like the brochure for the shiny sports car Putin wants even as Russia's cheap imported Chinese motorcycle sits at the curb, ready for glory in Ukraine.
Yet Russia is ramping up efforts to Russify the Ukrainians in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Is this a parallel effort to the war or a reaction--either pessimistic or optimistic--to the war effort?
What is happening behind the scenes in the openly and flamboyantly confident Russian military is unknown.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: Photo from Forbes.
