Would the Israelis exploit their air supremacy over Iran to airlift in a battalion of paratroopers and special forces to directly attack the buried Fordow nuclear enrichment facility? But can Israel's enemy cast a nuclear vote in this contest?
Is the only way to destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility buried deep under a mountain to use American MOP carried by a B-2 bomber?
Decades ago I read a military fiction book (Vortex) about an American Ranger regiment that dropped on the South African nuclear facility to seize that country's nukes. So maybe this is a concept that has just been floating around out there that Israelis could have picked up. It seems unlikely, but who knows?
Israel would have to have improved on America's Desert One debacle attempting to dispatch ground forces deep inside Iran. Is there room to land C-130s close enough to make an assault viable? Are forces already infiltrated/recruited? And how large must the force be? Could helicopters staged through Saudi Arabia pull the raiding party out?
And what would a ground attack need to do to destroy Fordow? It is deeply buried to defend against air attack. Is it designed to hold off a ground attack? Would attackers need to advance deep underground? Or could ground attackers succeed by sealing off anybody underground by blowing the entries and air shafts?
Or maybe with air supremacy Israel can drop precision bombs on the same point again and again and again to drill down to the facility, making an American massive MOP carried by a B-2 unneeded.
Given that Israel did indeed find a way to generate enough strikes to hit Iran as I predicted years ago, maybe Israel has its own version of the MOP and they figured out how to roll out of the back of a transport plane.
Although I will say again that I worry Iran already has some nukes.
I promoted this from an update to this post.
UPDATE: Iran's missile barrages have gotten much smaller.
UPDATE: China sent a couple cargo planes into Iran. What was transported? And was the mission to move something important to Iran? Or something important out of Iran? Could China have evacuated Iranian nuclear warheads? Or evacuated Chinese personnel of some sort?
UPDATE: I keep hearing that the Iranian regime is "collapsing" with reports of Iranians eager to be rid of mullah rule.
But I won't believe the regime is collapsing until its armed defenders refuse to shoot and kill people protesting the regime. Then we can discuss whether the regime is collapsing. I should note that Israel's air campaign is targeting the internal security apparatus, per ISW.
Right now it seems way too convenient to say Iranians will save us from the mullah regime's 40+ years of supporting terrorism. So I have a small amount of hope mixed with my vat of skepticism.
UPDATE: Is an American B-2 strike the only alternative to Israel taking down Fordow with a nuke? I can't imagine Israel using a nuke under current circumstances. Israel just isn't powerful enough or popular enough to get away with that in the long run.
UPDATE: Regarding those mystery cargo planes, China wouldn't have transported North Korean warheads Iran purchased but stored in North Korea, right? Sheer speculation, but given that the enemy votes I am loath to assume I know how many votes the enemy has.
UPDATE: With a tip to Instapundit, Israel's extensive intelligence and covert action network in Iran that is still up and running.
UPDATE: Iran was very close to pulling together its enrichment, warhead, and missile development paths. Of course, I worry Iran might have purchased nukes from its long-time nuclear partner, North Korea.
UPDATE: I wondered if Israel could drop a huge bomb from a transport plane, and via Instapundit I see an article asking if Israel could use a C-130 to drop a huge bomb.
UPDATE: The Israelis don't see signs of regime instability in Iran.
UPDATE: Earth-shattering kabooms:
"We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan," wrote Trump on TruthSocial .on June 21 "All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow."
That's gonna leave a mark.
Will Iran strike back and risk further American strikes?
UPDATE: Gotta say I assumed Israel had developed a means to hit Fordow.
UPDATE: Did Israel begin their air campaign against Iran with the knowledge that America would finish the job by destroying Fordow? America clearly prepared for this, including reinforcing American defenses in the region, including by diverting anti-drone rockets from Ukraine; by evacuating American civilians; and by moving troops from Syria that I assume provided a quick reaction ground force for American bases in Iraq.
Because I assumed Israel would not have started without a plan to destroy Fordow. But Israel did not finish it off. Did Israel try but fail? Or always know America would use its B-2s?
Hell, did Israel drag America in by implying they'd use a nuke on Fordow if they had to?
Will Iran accept the L and try to rebuild? Or will it expand the war to the oil realm, potentially harming China while benefiting Russia with higher prices? If so, will American Gulf Arab allies join the fight to keep the oil export routes open? Remember, Iraq in September 1980 thought it had launched a limited attack on Iran to collect a quick victory Iran would have no choice but to accept.
UPDATE: Again, I'll not let my hopes get over my skis, but it would be helpful in so many ways if Iran's mullah regime fell. Again, saying that doesn't mean I expect it.
UPDATE: Iran could hit U.S. forces? FFS:
Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.
UPDATE: Interesting article on the strike with informed speculation along with what we think are known facts.
UPDATE: Some in the West will be disappointed that American policy didn't reach stage four.
UPDATE: Iran matched us 1:1 with missile-that-was-intercepted-over-our-Qatar-base for massive-friggin'-bomb-that-exploded-on-target. Clearly performance art. Is that it?
Does Qatar launch a counter-performance-art strike on Iran and leave America out of it? Or call it a draw, letting the Black Knight save face--if not limbs.
Besides, Israel is still bombing Iran, so ... what's the point?
UPDATE: There is an agreement for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Agreement-ish.
UPDATE: The head of the IAEA believes Iran's nuclear facilities were wrecked:
"I think the Iranian nuclear program has been set back significantly, significantly," International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi said in a Fox News interview. He noted that "it is clear that there is one Iran—before June 13, nuclear Iran—and one now," describing the difference as "night and day."
UPDATE: While I hope the American strike crippled for years the Iranian nuclear warhead program, ISW rightly notes:
A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran’s nuclear sites and limited on-site access.
I won't let my hope drive a premature conclusion.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
