The news cycle was attracted to the shiny, modern kinetics of an air war between Iran and Israel. Not even FPV drones could keep the attention on the Winter War of 2022 as it plows into its fourth year with the lava flow front lines almost imperceptibly shifting. And when America struck Iran, turn the distraction dial to 11! Yet Iran's new problems in theory should reduce Iranian help for Russia.
Russia can't be happy that Israel is pounding Iran. And watching America jump in with strategic stealth bombers and massive bombs won't make them sleep better at night. Russia is in no position to dispatch additional air defense systems to Iran. And Iran will need to devote its surviving defense production to rebuilding its defensive and offensive systems. Assuming the mullah regime survives domestic discontent given an opportunity to challenge the regime (which I do assume until more than hope is identified).
Yet the Russian invasion of Ukraine goes on despite the focus on Israel and Iran with a guest appearance by American B-2s and their supporting joint ballet--even a Ukrainian blogger is on top of the Middle East fight before addressing Russia's brutal but by-now routine invasion.
Is this the time when observers should be really looking at the Winter War of 2022 to see if it is changing? Strategypage writes:
Earlier this year, Russian losses in weapons and manpower reached the point where new recruits could not be equipped with uniforms and weapons or given more than a few days training before being sent to the front. There they would get uniforms and equipment taken from dead soldiers. These untrained and ill equipped civilians were useless as soldiers. There were too few Russian officers left to complain and Russian offensive operations have largely disappeared.
Russia claws forward slowly, despite their own problems and Ukrainian firepower (drones and artillery). Ukraine's frontline is seemingly very thinly manned with few reserves to quickly counter-attack. Thus Russian advances are rarely reversed. Putin believes Russia can keep this up forever if it has to:
Putin articulated a theory of victory during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June 2024 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
Russia's bluster about demanding more of Ukraine and speculating about who in NATO is the next target all seem to me to be part of an information operation to disguise their spreading weakness.
I keep hoping that Ukraine--two years after their failed 2023 counteroffensive--has rebuilt a strategic reserve by starving the front. I keep hoping that the 2024 Kursk offensive was a test of tactics and units. Yet I've seen nothing to validate my hopes that Ukraine has a plan for more than just hanging on until the Russian army and perhaps rump empire collapses from the strain.
I've certainly been skeptical that Russia really has a massive juggernaut inside Ukraine. If the Russian war machine really is shaking violently and shedding bolts, could Ukraine exploit that?
But in the meantime, back to the aerial fireworks in the Middle East and revitalized speculation about ways it could broaden.
UPDATE (Monday): ISW reports a claim:
Russia has 13 divisions and an unspecified number of regiments and brigades (totaling roughly 121,000 troops) in its strategic reserve.
Is that a reserve for the invasion force or a true strategic reserve for the rest of Russia's long frontier?
If the former will it be sent in penny packets to reinforce the existing gnawing offensive?
And as I suggested in the main body about Russian math, is that force real? Or just a paper force of random bodies not in any way a reserve force?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
UPDATE: I made the image with Bing--with some difficulty trying to get past the dangerous image claim. Sheesh.
