Trump has tried to rescue Russia--for American interests and not Putin's quest for glory--but Putin has rejected the outstretched hand of rescue.
I've long wanted Russia to end its insane view of NATO as an enemy rather than a safe rear area for Russia to confront the real threat of China. Indeed, I believed it might be Putin's only hope for personal survival and figured Trump's efforts were for reassuring Russians it is safe to pull a Mussolini and flip alliances. Which is pretty appropriate given Russia's now-shattered illusion of power.
Yet Russia has rejected Trump's call for an immediate ceasefire for months now, hoping it could yet win. Trump is getting frustrated with Putin:
“I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” Trump wrote in a social media post, adding, “I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!”
Russian forces would need roughly a century to seize Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone" at their current rate of advance at the cost of nearly 50 million casualties at current loss rates.
I believe Russia has erected a Potemkin Village of strength in an effort to persuade Ukraine and the West that resistance is futile. Putin's extravagant demands for territory are part of this facade. Resistance is not futile.
Further, war is a human endeavor and not a mechanical, predictable affair. Someone will crack well before a century passes. But who can best exploit that?
Can Trump persuade Putin to align with America to contain China? Or is this a futile effort that will doom Ukraine in the future unless Russians change their own leadership to recognize the real threat to Russia?
In actual war news, Ukraine smuggled small drones close to airfields deep in Russia to hit Russia's long-range bombers and other high-value planes. The claimed damage is high. We'll see.
That's a vulnerability I addressed many years ago.
UPDATE (Monday): If Ukraine did this much damage, it's a big deal:
The [Ukrainian intelligence service] SBU sources confirmed that Ukrainian drone operators struck 41 Russian strategic aircraft, including A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers – fixed-wing aircraft that Russia uses to detect Ukrainian air defenses and launch cruise missiles against Ukraine.
Heck, Chinese generals might be quietly high fiving each other, as I wrote in 2019 about Russia's claim of elevating the role of air power in limited campaigns:
Russia is running out of time to be able to defend their territory in the Far East rather thanappeaseplay second fiddle to China while the power differential favors China.
In that light, Russian investment in long-range air and missile precision strike capability isn't intended to reach America but is intended to reach Russia's own Far East and neighboring China from European Russia. The fifth column might not be Russian protesters on the streets of Moscow but ethnic Chinese illegally settling in Russian territory in the Far East (and maybe local Russians who'd rather go with China than distant Moscow which siphons off their natural resources) where their empire is truly at risk.
Russia's exercises for their airborne forces could be seen in this light, too.
Ah, Russian strategery.
UPDATE (Monday): More on Operation Spiderweb.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Keep in mind that the Ukrainians almost certainly had foreign help with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance for their spectacular special forces drone attack. Google Earth won't cut it for something like this.
UPDATE (Tuesday): This article on learning from Ukraine's special forces operation starts "Relying on its own resources ..." But did it really? I assume targeting and communications wasn't something Ukraine had within its own resources.
And unless this becomes a weekly thing, it is like any other surprise commando attack on an air base. Something America has suffered from in its wars on occasion. Spectacular and useful but not a replacement for winning the ground war.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine also managed to detonate a very large explosive underwater to damage one of the Kerch Strait Bridge's pillars. The bridge is still standing. How much damage did the attack inflict?
UPDATE (Friday): Ukraine's allies announced another aid package, including: "more than 100 vessels, including patrol boats, transport boats, interceptors, and special operations ships; more than 50 naval drones[.]"
Hmm.
UPDATE (Friday): The U.S. assesses the air base raids as less damaging than Ukraine claimed:
The United States assesses that Ukraine's drone attack over the weekend hit as many as 20 Russian warplanes, destroying around 10 of them[.]
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
