After twenty months of fighting Iran's proxies and a couple direct skirmishes, Israel launched a campaign against Iran last night, with the apparent primary objective of knocking back Iran's nuclear weapons program. But I have one major worry right now. Does Iran already have nukes?
Israel went after the archer instead of just hitting the proxy arrows:
Israel launched a large-scale overnight airstrike on Iran, targeting more than 100 sites with around 200 fighter jets, according to an Israeli military spokesperson.
The operation included strikes on nuclear-related sites and killed senior military commanders and scientists.
Iran already responded with a hundred suicide drones but they seemingly were all shot down.
While Iran's nuclear program is clearly the primary target, military commanders were also killed. This could possibly be to weaken the response or perhaps to support a revolution. Although suggestions of the latter could simply be part of the former.
Years ago, it was said that Israel would need to generate 100 aircraft sorties to knock down Iran's nuclear infrastructure. I've believed Israel could find a way, and wondered if the time had come even before the October 7, 2023 murder and rape invasion by Hamas was launched. While the attack is broader than that hypothetical strike package, already Israel has used about double that. Although some could be escorts rather than strike assets.
America's build up with ships and planes, plus the diversion of drone defense rockets originally allocated to Ukraine make more sense now. As does the recent alerts at American embassies in the region and the pull back of some Americans from vulnerable positions.
I'm assuming at least one of America's SSGNs is in position. And I now have to wonder if Israel's rare naval strike on the Houthi had a main purpose of obscuring the movement of an Israeli submarine south and out of the Red Sea to be in a position to conduct follow-up strikes after more air strikes through Arab air space are deemed politically unwise.
Will Iran "retaliate" against American forces in the region? Are Iran's proxies ready to step up--again, after getting hammered for all this time--when Iran has let Arabs die to fight Israel thus far?
Are Marines afloat and Army troops in Djibouti ready to reinforce embassies or bases?
And if America is attacked, will American forces hammer Iranian targets, whether military or nuclear-related as punishment?
Will Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, hurting its own oil exports? If so, are Iranian oil targets then in play? Or will America focus on supporting Gulf Arab state allies in reopening the strait? And can Red Sea alternatives for some Gulf oil exports run the Houthi gauntlet?
I also heard that Iran will declare war on Israel, making their years-long quasi-war an open fight. Let's hope limitations on American energy production are eliminated very quickly.
One thing that worries me is that I've long suspected Iran's enrichment status was a red herring. Everyone knew it was Israel's red line. I thought that if Iran reached its enrichment level it would mean Iran already has nuclear missiles (quoting a post from 2009):
If Iran can announce both the ability to make nuclear bomb material and the possession of actual nuclear weapons--perhaps by detonating one in a test on their own territory--Tehran would quite possibly deter an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
We're not dealing with idiots. If the Iranian mullahs believe there are red lines that trigger Israeli or American action, why wouldn't they take counter-actions rather than just blindly cross those lines and provide a pretext for military action against them?
Does Iran have some nukes already? Iran could have bought some from North Korea and they could have been lost in the flood of shipping containers flowing across Russia to reach the Ukraine battlefield.
Will Iran use them if they have them? And if they have them, why didn't Iran announce them to deter this anticipated Israeli strike? And if Iran doesn't have nuclear missiles and simply raced ahead to enrichment, are they idiots?
UPDATE: ISW has a special report on the initial strikes. It will be updated.
UPDATE: Trump plays the exasperated "good cop" by urging Iran to agree to a good deal before it is too late.
UPDATE: I wonder how much damage Iranian security people will do to Iran as they try to ferret out who helped Israel's intelligence services smuggle in and use drones in the early hours of the strikes?
UPDATE: I wonder if the decision to pull a number of American troops out of Syria was in order to create a reserve of ground troops perhaps still "in transit" in Kuwait?
UPDATE: A RUSI analyst has the same question of scope that I had:
The breadth and scale of these strikes — against senior Iranian officials and other military facilities in addition to nuclear sites — suggest this operation is intended to not just dissuade Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, but also cripple any potential military response and even to destabilize the regime.
UPDATE: America helped Israel identify, track, and shoot at the incoming Iranian missiles:
The U.S. military helped defend Israel from Iranian-fired missiles Friday, a day after Tel Aviv launched a massive air attack on Iran’s military leadership and nuclear program.
I heard help consisted of a couple Navy destroyers and Army THAAD and Patriot units inside Israel.
UPDATE: Apparently, Iran can only launch 100 ballistic missiles at a time because of limited mobile launchers.
How long before Israel can destroy some of those? Or will Iran run out of missiles before then? But I do worry that Iran is trying to get Israel to expend anti-missiles so it can fire a nuke. I'm just unwilling to assume the Iranians are idiots. Murderous, religious nutballs? Sure. Idiots? Don't count on it.
UPDATE: Iran is everything the mullahs and their global leftist allies accuse Israel of being:
For decades, an aggressive, quasi-imperial state has been at the centre of conflict in the Middle East. It has consistently antagonised its neighbours and in some cases threatened their very existence. And through its shadowy military operatives, it has sought to impose its will on allies and enemies alike.
I've long said Iran is the region's Gordian Knot.
UPDATE: Asking the question, how stupid is Iran's mullah regime? Assuming the mullahs don't have nukes and use them. Which is stupid in an entirely different way--but catastrophic levels of it.
UPDATE: Remember, Iran's obligations exist separately from the horrible and canceled Iran nuclear deal:
The International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Thursday that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, the first time the U.N. watchdog has passed a resolution against the country in 20 years.
UPDATE: Per the latest ISW update, Iran has launched seven waves of attacks on Israel (seemingly area attacks simply aiming at cities); while Israel continues to attack military targets in Iran, including long-range assets. Israel does not believe it has done enough to destroy the Natanz nuclear facility. Israel seems able to fly at will over Iran.
How long before Israel targets economic assets? Will it be before or after Iran interferes with oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz?
UPDATE: Also, don't pretend the toothless Iran nuclear deal that America cancelled would have prevented the Iranian threat.
UPDATE: How we got here.
UPDATE: As I noted in my latest Weekend Data Dump, "Was DNI Tulsi Gabbard's seemingly odd nuclear war scare video that I noted in an earlier entry part of an administration plan to justify an Israeli and/or American strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure? Or it is as batsh*t crazy as it sounds."
UPDATE: The long-range war is a problem for Israel. Unless Iranians overthrow the mullahs and restore friendly ties with Israel, will Israel continue to bomb any signs of Iranian nuclear revival?
And worse, will Iran move its nuclear arsenal out of reach of Israeli air power?
UPDATE: I'm assuming the report that Trump vetoed an Israel proposal to kill Iran's Ayatollah ruler is just part of the good cop/bad cop routine. With the implied threat that Trump could cancel his veto at any time.
UPDATE: A pro-Iran Shia militia fired a few suicide drones at an American air base in western Iraq that American forces shot down. Unclear if this was freelance, or ordered by Tehran.
UPDATE: A weapon system we haven't seen is Israel's LORA Whack-in-a-Box. Any Israeli cargo ships with shipping containers on them nearing Iran's shores?
UPDATE: Would the Israelis exploit their air supremacy over Iran to airlift in a battalion of paratroopers and special forces to directly attack the buried Fordow nuclear enrichment facility?
Decades ago I read a military fiction book (Vortex!) about an American Ranger regiment that dropped on to the South African nuclear facility to seize that country's nukes. So maybe this is a concept that has just been floating around out there.
And what would a ground attack need to do to destroy Fordow? It is deeply buried to defend against air attack. Is it designed to hold off a ground attack? Would attackers need to advance deep underground? Or could ground attackers succeed in sealing off anybody underground by blowing the entries and air shafts?
Or maybe with air supremacy Israel can drop precision bombs on the same point again and again and again to drill down to the facility, making an American massive MOP carried by a B-2 unneeded.
UPDATE: I wondered and now I read this:
Iran has arrested dozens of people on suspicion of spying as fears grow in the Islamic Republic over the extent of its infiltration by Israel’s Mossad intelligence service.
I wonder how many will be executed prior to trial? I wonder how many will have been guilty as charged?
UPDATE: By killing nuclear scientists during its campaign, Israel seems to be taking care of one concern I have long had about using military power only as "the last resort":
And while many here continue to insist that military action must be the last resort, the more the knowledge of nuclear weaponry becomes deeply embedded within Iran. More people acquire the knowledge of how to proceed and unless we kill them all, destroying buildings is the least effective way to slow them down. Iran can rebuild structures if they have the scientists and technicians who take decades to train ready to pick up the pieces. Indeed, Iran could rebuild in other countries and subcontract various stages of the work in locations that may be immune to future attacks.
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NOTE: The image of an incoming Iranian missile Israeli defensive rockets is from the article. [I did wonder why slow drones were leaving streaks but assumed some missiles must have been in the Iranian strike, but not reported. And perspective can give the illusion of descending.]
