In the world of achieving battlefield surprise, I think persistent surveillance can be overcome. And I think AI perception can be overcome.
Central Command began using Project Maven's computer vision systems in real campaigns after Hamas' surprise attack on Israel during October 2023. Israeli intelligence was criticized for not detecting the Hamas operation. Israeli intelligence did detect the Hamas plans, but Hamas devised a deception that persuaded the Israelis that there was no danger. Successful deception and surprise are one of the most effective military techniques if you can make it work. Hamas did make it work.
Project Maven scrutinizes large quantities of video and still photos of a combat zone, or potential combat zone, looking for patterns that identify or indicate the possibility of combat or violence occurring. The AI bases system is trained to detect such possibilities and provide warnings of attacks or unexpected military or militant movements. The October 2023 Hamas surprise attack was the sort of thing Project Maven could have convincingly predicted. More so than the Israeli intelligence analysis that did not indicate any dangerous actions by Hamas.
As the post notes, surprise is achieved in the mind of the enemy commander. AI can be tricked, too. Probably by another AI. Or human commanders simply won't trust the AI.
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NOTE: I made the meme.
