I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The U.S. is Building an INDOPACOM Army-Marine Expeditionary Force
In case you missed it on Substack: Ferrari Attacks Are Spectacular!
In case you missed it on Substack: Air Power is Dead. Long Live the Air Power
In case you missed it on Substack: The Fisher Solution 2.0
The U.S. must wage a war on the NGOs that undermine the West. I've long recognized NGOs as the logistics support for enemies in war. It has been much worse than I imagined.
For some, no enemy is really an enemy. Tip to Instapundit. Asking again, why do we hate us?
The Army 250th anniversary parade no doubt will help recruiting, eh?
The Army's Civilian Protection Center of Excellence lost its stand-alone status. Good. It just represented false compassion, as far as I'm concerned.
Germany is stepping up: "Germany is on track to give €9 billion ($10.4 billion) in aid to Ukraine in 2025, maintaining the country’s position as one of Kyiv’s key backers." Most is economic aid, however.
Preparing for the unknown--or unstated known: "The United States is shifting military resources, including ships, in the Middle East in response to Israel’s strikes on Iran and a possible retaliatory attack by Tehran[.]"
I'm told they are island Israelis or Ukrainians: "When young conscripts in Taiwan refer to themselves as “cannon fodder,” it signals a crisis in trust that the government must not ignore." I am skeptical.
The Chinese risk a military incident with their aggressive flying near Japanese planes.
Rather than demand a perfect plan, accept that sometimes you just need to buy time, even for the horse to sing. Israel's objective right now is that Iran doesn't get nukes next month.
Tip to Instapundit, when Britain tried to contain America to the Atlantic. Having failed to stop America at the Appalachian Mountains, Britain tried the Rocky Mountain barrier.
The C-17 could carry just one M10 light tank--or one M1 Abrams. I've never been impressed. Should the Marines adopt it?
China's economic ties with Russia are deeper than they appear.
As members of Congress ponder constraining Trump's ability to send American troops into action against Iran (assuming he even wants to), let's review the more complicated reality of who declares war.
We may know what moving two dozen American tanker aircraft across the Atlantic means before this is posted.
Is the shotgun the best last-ditch defense against fiber-optic FPV suicide drones?
Is South Korea going wobbly? China tries to undermine Taiwan's will to fight. And more on Japan and China.
Think I'm exaggerating Defense News bias? Six "Army" stories in Tuesday email. Here are five: Deported wife, sergeant major DUI, court marshal process, training accident death, troubled soldiers. Add in one on a sad trans soldier highlighted as a "top" story. Those are relevant highlights?
U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal: "On Monday, Ukraine approved the first steps to allowing private investors to mine a major state-owned lithium deposit, two government officials said. Such a project would be the first to be greenlit under the deal."
Boo effing hoo. Hamas gave you this and if you no longer cheer the October 7, 2023 videos, talk to Hamas. While I have sympathy, Israel is fighting lawfully and Hamas could end the suffering by surrendering.
And now some Vietnamese server (Vnpt) is thoroughly crawling TDR. Weird. But hey, welcome to my massive number of new Vietnamese readers. Or maybe I'm training a Vietnamese AI. Woo!
Huh: "Many Russians are openly criticizing the war and public approval of the Special Operation in Ukraine has hit a record low of 30 percent."
The FBI smothered an investigation into apparently credible reports that China made a plan to mass produce fake American driver licenses to help sway the 2020 election. Did CBP nab 20,000 of those IDs? Was it just a plan?
Arguing against a Pacific defense pact to contain China. I'm not against it in theory. Indeed, the notion that alliances rather than Chinese aggression makes the region a tinderbox is ridiculous. I just don't think there is a common battlefield to focus the herd of cats.
Israel's attack on Iran and a "new way of war"? Seriously? The war has been going on since Friday. And already this is revolutionary? What makes it really different from 2003 shock and awe, 1990s air campaigns against Serbia, or the 1991 air bombardment of Iraqi forces?
Are India's great power ambitions delusional? India has problems that hinder that. China had problems, too, but has overcome many of them.
Hybridized intelligence warfare. We're failing at it, of course. I reject the hybrid warfare craze.
A handful of European states are making up for lack of new American aid to Ukraine in dollar amounts. I suspect that American military aid committed by Biden--and not halted by Trump--is still rolling into Ukraine. I sure don't read about problems at the front so far.
The U.N. warns that terrorists could weaponize driverless vehicles. I did note that.
Iran is alone with neither, Russia, China, proxies, or Allah able to protect it's mullah regime. How many Iranians stand with the regime?
I have no problems returning Army base names to their prior names. The names honor new heroes even as they restore old names. Generations of American soldiers proudly served America in those bases without pining for slavery. It's fitting that names associated with rebellion are now symbols of American freedom.
Greenland now falls under NORTHCOM.
This does not justify Iranian nukes: "Israel has its own secretive nuclear weapons program, one that it doesn’t publicly acknowledge but that, some experts believe, is also expanding." Nobody worries Israel will nuke them if they don't invade and threaten to destroy Israel.
The new American precision 25mm grenade launcher. Does precision make having more smaller rounds better than larger 40mm launchers?
Russian power projection seems limited to cyber-space: "Western intelligence agencies believe Russia recently tried, and failed to take control of Romanian security cameras. Since they invaded Ukraine in 2022 the Russian Cyber War unit 26165 has been hard at work all over Europe."
Don't deal with Iran's threat now because China could launch a war in the future. Another essay in a popular genre'. Don't trust the Center for No American Security. Admit it, we've pivoted.
The Philippines as a platform for Army anti-ship weapons. Marine NMESIS is also mentioned. I think these secures sea lines of communication to Taiwan.
GAO: "The Army has little to show for its recent efforts to upgrade its air and missile defense systems despite putting them on the development fast track and spending billions of dollars in funding[.]"
I'm pretty sure this is from the "Well, Duh" files. But wouldn't cheaper decoy drones accomplish the same thing?
The war is still young, but I think these are three fair lessons reinforced by the Israel-Iran War of 2025. It didn't take this war to know the lessons.
It isn't accurate to say Iran controls Iraq. But America does need to fight Iran over who Iraq will side with fully.
European freedom is under threat by woke police-states. Gosh, why would Vance warn the Europeans?
I fly the American flag on June 19th. How can you not like a holiday celebrating federal troops marching into a secessionist state and letting its slaves know they are free? Yes, obnoxious radicals dominate the holiday now. Those on the right should embrace and rebrand it as part of our history of liberty.
The Army's TIC initiative to transform its brigades started with light infantry, making the Medium Brigade Combat Teams, spread to the Armor brigades and the division, and now is heading for the Army National Guard.
The F-35 can share data with F-16s on top of the ability to do that with ground fires assets. As I've observed, options expand when sensors and shooters are separated.
Could C-17 production be resumed?
I'm curious to see the details of sweeping changes to the Army, mostly to see if we will still have an army. I fear this is just the Army version of Marine Force Design rushing for the cliff.
American Marines and sailors practiced with Latvian troops to counter drones by building trenches "as practice for real-world deployments and to test new battlefield tactics." Tactics matter, as I've noted about small drones: "Have no doubt that counter-measures will be developed with tactics and equipment."
China is still rising and so won't act like a fully developed power. It may be rising absolutely but I suspect its relative advance has peaked.
Will Putin agree to reload end his war on Ukraine if he is confronted with a reality that time is not on his side? Maybe. Unless Putin decides that ending the war now is a dangerous defeat and it would be better to lose later.
Every American asset sent to fight the current Iran threat is an asset that can't be sent to the Pacific to deter China? LOL. Is the author expecting Iran to destroy all those assets? FFS, it's another essay in a popular genre'.
For all the laughable talk that China is replacing American influence in the Middle East, China doesn't seem likely to help its Axis of Steal junior partner, Iran. But the author strays into that former territory.
Assuming Iran's regime is under extreme stress, could closing the Strait of Hormuz wreck--at a 1970s scale--the global economy? How long could Iran close it? I also don't assume Iran's regime is on its last legs. Are security forces willing to kill on a large scale to keep the mullahs in power? Tip to Instapundit.
Israel's long-range RA-01 stealth drone for recon and strike was recently spotted on the Israel-Syria border. Tip to Instapundit.
Hmmm: "The United States is moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam[.]" A warning to North Korea? Or are Iran's nukes in North Korea? SO THAT HAPPENED.
Sh*t got real. SO THAT HAPPENED.
Drones don't replace artillery--they complement it. Preaching to the TDR choir!
Iran will hit U.S. forces? FFS, "Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." SO THAT HAPPENED.
CRS report to Congress on Iran's ballistic missile programs.
The Czech Republic continues its long run of military innovation.
NATO is extremely lucky Putin was dumb enough to wreck Russia's military in Ukraine.
Two thousand more Army National Guard troops were deployed for security duties in Los Angeles.
A preview of Estonia's proposed 2027 anti-drone wall. But what prevents Russian soldiers from putting their boots on that wall?
Unanimous sanity: "A federal appeals court on Thursday cleared the way for President Trump to keep using the National Guard to respond to immigration protests in Los Angeles[.]"
Navy to boost Virginia SSN production.
Sh*t got real. The Navy could soon have three carrier strike groups in range of Iran soon. SO THAT HAPPENED.
Sure: "Current conflicts have overturned how air power is applied. Air forces should no longer be built solely around crewed aircraft. A different balance is required." I broached this blue/brown sky issue recently.
I doubt Iran has the capability to precisely target the Israeli hospital they hit with a long-range missile. Not that the Iranians didn't hope to get lucky with their scaled up War of the Cities that they waged against Iraq in the 1980s war. But it seems likely it was chance.
News from the Axis of Easily Enraged: "Britain has enraged China by sailing one of its warships through the Taiwan Strait."
Oh? "NATO has an Ambassador-at-Large for Hybrid Threats. This diplomat promotes understanding of hybrid threats and the need to deal effectively with this menace." I think this promotes pretending Russia isn't waging war on NATO.
Is Iranian democracy the only way to end the Iranian nuclear threat? It has long been my view that a more free Iran will either decide not to waste money on nukes; or we won't worry it has a few nukes. Blasting Iran's nuclear infrastructure just buys time for Iranians to destroy the mullahs. SO THAT HAPPENED.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Chinese Communist Party "solved" its slumping housing market by bulldozing five million inhabited homes and forcing those residents to buy the unsold new homes.
As the war to halt Iran's nuclear missile development rages, recall with some confusion that somehow the problem wasn't already resolved. And no, that doesn't count. SO THAT HAPPENED.
I'm fine with Hegseth as secretary of defense. But claiming the attack on Iran proves he is great is nonsense. Yes, the attack was technically proficient. But so was the rushed evacuation from Kabul.
America hopes it launched a limited offensive operation against Iran that Iran accepts. Iraq tried that against Iran in September 1980 and got an eight-year war, as I wrote in a Land Warfare Paper early in my writing career. I think we had to strike--mullahs with nukes are dangerous--but nothing is assured.
A crisis of farmers versus invading herders in the Central African Republic.
Russia weaponized war veterans to attack Russians insufficiently enthusiastic about invading Ukraine. The veterans also attack non-Russians, which Putin ignores. Which could be a problem when it comes to recruiting those non-Russians instead of forcing ethnic Russians in Moscow and St. Petersburg to fight.
The next-to-useless UN Secretary General is worried America's attack is "a direct threat to international peace and security." No word on what he thinks about mullah nukes.
It would be very helpful if Iran's mullah regime fell. But I won't let hope guide my predictions. Assume the mullahs remain until proven otherwise. FYI, I've updated my recent post on destroying Fordow repeatedly.
And I give a hearty welcome to my massive number of apparent Vietnamese readers over this last week. I have no idea what is happening.
